Publication

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

Average Absolute Error

(Nominal Dollars per Barrel)

AEO82

28.49

32.47

37.38

41.90

45.66

49.02

20.23

AEO83

28.44

28.18

30.67

36.07

41.41

46.93

74.25

22.18

AEO84

28.92

28.67

29.56

31.76

34.27

37.00

56.65

16.60

AEO85

27.00

25.70

24.38

25.26

28.60

32.23

34.75

36.99

37.95

40.22

41.14

14.09

AEO86

14.57

15.89

17.28

18.91

20.72

22.20

24.74

28.25

32.08

35.49

38.41

41.03

42.92

10.43

AEO87

18.11

17.41

19.01

20.06

20.97

21.54

23.17

25.76

28.98

4.47

AEO89

14.70

15.00

16.31

17.52

18.47

20.38

23.07

25.72

28.61

31.50

34.06

6.67

AEO90

17.70

17.53

24.45

3.97

AEO91

22.00

24.95

25.64

26.31

26.95

27.56

28.08

28.62

29.16

8.95

AEO92

19.13

20.19

20.72

22.23

23.89

25.50

27.30

28.92

6.37

AEO93

18.90

20.09

20.96

21.99

22.85

23.74

24.69

4.99

AEO94

17.12

17.27

18.26

19.34

20.40

21.50

2.74

AEO95

15.26

17.19

18.04

18.98

19.79

2.21

AEO96

17.24

17.69

18.44

19.30

2.58

AEO97

19.88

19.25

19.11

2.83

AEO98

18.51

18.53

3.23

AEO99

18.19

6.09

Actual Value

26.99

14.00

18.13

14.56

18.08

21.76

18.70

18.20

16.14

15.51

17.14

20.64

18.53

12.10

Average Absolute Error

1.22

11.92

8.62

11.78

10.36

10.09

4.95

5.58

8.11

9.41

14.61

5.32

6.27

13.01

9.23

(Percent Error)

AEO82

5.5

131.9

106.2

187.7

152.5

125.3

118.2

AEO83

5.4

101.3

69.2

147.7

129.1

115.7

333.2

128.8

AEO84

7.2

104.8

63.1

118.2

89.6

70.0

230.5

97.6

AEO85

0.0

83.6

34.5

73.5

58.2

48.1

85.8

103.2

135.1

159.3

140.0

83.8

AEO86

4.1

-12.4

18.7

4.6

-4.8

18.7

35.9

75.0

106.8

107.1

86.1

121.4

254.7

65.4

AEO87

-0.1

19.6

5.1

-7.8

12.1

18.4

43.6

66.1

69.1

26.9

AEO89

1.0

-17.0

-25.1

-6.3

1.5

26.3

48.7

50.1

38.6

70.0

181.5

42.4

AEO90

-2.1

-19.4

42.6

21.4

AEO91

1.1

33.4

40.9

63.0

73.8

60.8

36.0

54.4

141.0

56.1

AEO92

2.3

10.9

28.4

43.3

39.4

23.6

47.3

139.0

41.8

AEO93

3.8

24.5

35.1

28.3

10.7

28.1

104.1

33.5

AEO94

6.1

11.3

6.6

-6.3

10.1

77.7

19.7

AEO95

-1.6

0.3

-12.6

2.4

63.5

16.1

AEO96

0.6

-14.3

-0.5

59.5

18.7

AEO97

-3.7

3.9

57.9

21.8

AEO98

-0.1

53.2

26.6

AEO99

50.4

50.4

Average Absolute Percent Error

4.5

85.1

47.6

80.9

57.3

46.4

26.5

30.7

50.2

60.7

85.3

25.8

33.8

107.5

56.7

AEO = Annual Energy Outlook.
Sources: Actual Values: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review 1998, DOE/EIA-0384(98) (Washington, DC, July 1999). Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook, DOE/EIA-0383(82-99) (Washington, DC, April 1983 - December 1998).