Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1999 - Table 12. Net Coal Exports: AEO Forecasts, Actual Values, and Absolute and Percent Errors, 1985-1998

Table 12. Net Coal Exports: AEO Forecasts, Actual Values, and Absolute and Percent Errors, 1985-1998

Publication	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	Average Absolute Error
(Million Short Tons)
AEO82	109	114	120	127	135	144									34
AEO83	83	86	90	94	99	105					116				9
AEO84	72	74	77	81	86	91					106				13
AEO85	83	83	83	84	85	87	89	92	95	98	102				14
AEO86		87	87	88	89	91	92	94	96	98	100	101	102	103	17
AEO87			76	72	73	76	77	79	82	83	86				18
AEO89				84	80	82	83	85	87	88	90	93	97	99	18
AEO90					95	92					99				11
AEO91						105	96	96	97	100	104	100	104	111	21
AEO92							98	99	103	109	116	117	120	124	32
AEO93								108	111	113	117	118	120	124	39
AEO94									79	93	108	110	113	117	30
AEO95										57	66	69	70	70	9
AEO96											71	76	77	77	7
AEO97												82	84	86	9
AEO98													80	83	9
AEO99														75	6
Actual Value	91	83	78	93	98	103	106	99	67	64	81	83	76	69
Average Absolute Error	13	9	12	13	15	16	17	8	27	31	21	18	22	28	19
(Percent Error)
AEO82	19.8	37.3	53.8	36.6	37.8	39.8									37.5
AEO83	-8.8	3.6	15.4	1.1	1.0	1.9					43.2				10.7
AEO84	-20.9	-10.8	-1.3	-12.9	-12.2	-11.7					30.9				14.4
AEO85	-8.8	0.0	6.4	-9.7	-13.3	-15.5	-16.0	-7.1	41.8	53.1	25.9				18.0
AEO86		4.8	11.5	-5.4	-9.2	-11.7	-13.2	-5.1	43.3	53.1	23.5	21.7	34.2	49.3	22.0
AEO87			-2.6	-22.6	-25.5	-26.2	-27.4	-20.2	22.4	29.7	6.2				20.3
AEO89				-9.7	-18.4	-20.4	-21.7	-14.1	29.9	37.5	11.1	12.0	27.6	43.5	22.4
AEO90					-3.1	-10.7					22.2				12.0
AEO91						1.9	-9.4	-3.0	44.8	56.3	28.4	20.5	36.8	60.9	29.1
AEO92							-7.5	0.0	53.7	70.3	43.2	41.0	57.9	79.7	44.2
AEO93								9.1	65.7	76.6	44.4	42.2	57.9	79.7	53.6
AEO94									17.9	45.3	33.3	32.5	48.7	69.6	41.2
AEO95										-10.9	-18.5	-16.9	-7.9	1.4	11.1
AEO96											-12.3	-8.4	1.3	11.6	8.4
AEO97												-1.2	10.5	24.6	12.1
AEO98													5.3	20.3	12.8
AEO99														8.7	8.7
Average Absolute Percent Error	14.6	11.3	15.2	14.0	15.1	15.5	15.9	8.4	39.9	48.1	26.4	21.8	28.8	40.8	24.5
AEO = Annual Energy Outlook. Sources: Actual Values: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review 1998, DOE/EIA-0384(98) (Washington, DC, July 1999). Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook, DOE/EIA-0383(82-99) (Washington, DC, April 1983 - December 1998).