Publication

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

Average Absolute Error

(Trillion Cubic Feet)

AEO82

1.19

1.19

1.19

1.19

1.19

1.19

0.24

AEO83

1.08

1.16

1.23

1.23

1.23

1.23

1.23

0.38

AEO84

0.99

1.05

1.16

1.27

1.43

1.57

2.11

0.23

AEO85

0.94

1.00

1.19

1.45

1.58

1.86

1.94

2.06

2.17

2.32

2.44

0.22

AEO86

0.74

0.88

0.62

1.03

1.05

1.27

1.39

1.47

1.66

1.79

1.96

2.17

2.38

0.52

AEO87

0.84

0.89

1.07

1.16

1.26

1.36

1.46

1.65

1.75

0.49

AEO89

1.15

1.32

1.44

1.52

1.61

1.70

1.79

1.87

1.98

2.06

2.15

0.45

AEO90

1.26

1.43

2.07

0.22

AEO91

1.36

1.53

1.70

1.82

2.11

2.30

2.33

2.36

2.42

0.34

AEO92

1.48

1.62

1.88

2.08

2.25

2.41

2.56

2.68

0.32

AEO93

1.79

2.08

2.35

2.49

2.61

2.74

2.89

0.13

AEO94

2.02

2.40

2.66

2.74

2.81

2.85

0.08

AEO95

2.46

2.54

2.80

2.87

2.87

0.06

AEO96

2.56

2.75

2.85

2.88

0.07

AEO97

2.82

2.96

3.16

0.12

AEO98

2.95

3.19

0.17

AEO99

2.92

0.05

Actual Value

0.89

0.69

0.94

1.22

1.28

1.45

1.64

1.92

2.21

2.46

2.69

2.79

2.83

2.97

Average Absolute Error

0.16

0.34

0.20

0.19

0.14

0.20

0.24

0.31

0.39

0.37

0.53

0.31

0.26

0.28

0.30

(Percent Error)

AEO82

33.1

72.7

26.7

-2.5

-7.0

-17.7

26.6

AEO83

20.8

68.4

31.0

0.8

-3.9

-14.9

-54.2

27.7

AEO84

10.7

52.4

23.5

4.1

11.7

8.6

-21.5

18.9

AEO85

5.1

45.1

26.7

18.9

23.4

28.6

18.0

7.2

-1.8

-5.8

-9.2

17.3

AEO86

7.4

-6.3

-49.2

-19.5

-27.4

-22.7

-27.6

-33.5

-32.6

-33.4

-29.7

-23.3

-19.9

25.6

AEO87

-10.5

-27.0

-16.4

-19.8

-23.4

-29.2

-33.9

-33.0

-34.9

25.3

AEO89

-5.7

3.1

-0.4

-7.5

-16.2

-23.1

-27.3

-30.4

-29.0

-27.2

-27.6

18.0

AEO90

-1.6

-1.1

-23.0

8.5

AEO91

-5.9

-6.9

-11.5

-17.6

-14.3

-14.4

-16.5

-16.6

-18.5

13.6

AEO92

-10.0

-15.7

-14.9

-15.5

-16.3

-13.6

-9.5

-9.8

13.2

AEO93

-6.8

-5.9

-4.5

-7.3

-6.5

-3.2

-2.7

5.3

AEO94

-8.6

-2.5

-1.0

-1.8

-0.7

-4.0

3.1

AEO95

-0.1

-5.5

0.4

1.4

-3.4

2.1

AEO96

-4.7

-1.4

0.7

-3.0

2.5

AEO97

1.1

4.6

6.4

4.0

AEO98

4.2

7.4

5.8

AEO99

-1.7

1.7

Average Absolute Percent Error

17.4

49.2

20.8

15.5

10.8

13.8

14.8

16.3

17.4

15.1

19.7

11.1

9.2

9.5

16.0

AEO = Annual Energy Outlook.
Note: AEO82 projections given in Btu were converted to trillion cubic feet using a conversion factor of 1.03.
Sources: Actual Values: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review 1998, DOE/EIA-0384(98) (Washington, DC, July 1999). Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook, DOE/EIA-0383(82-99) (Washington, DC, April 1983 - December 1998).