Publication

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

Average Absolute Error

(Million Barrels per Day)

AEO82

7.58

7.45

7.12

6.82

6.66

7.09

1.23

AEO83

5.15

5.44

5.73

5.79

5.72

5.95

6.96

0.78

AEO84

4.85

5.11

5.53

5.95

6.31

6.59

8.65

0.59

AEO85

4.17

4.38

4.73

4.93

5.36

5.72

6.23

6.66

7.14

7.39

7.74

0.84

AEO86

5.15

5.38

5.46

5.92

6.46

7.09

7.50

7.78

7.96

8.20

8.47

8.74

9.04

0.49

AEO87

5.81

6.04

6.81

7.28

7.82

8.34

8.71

8.94

8.98

0.76

AEO89

6.28

6.84

7.49

7.96

8.53

8.83

9.04

9.28

9.60

9.64

9.75

0.85

AEO90

7.20

7.61

9.13

0.56

AEO91

7.28

7.25

7.34

7.48

7.72

8.10

8.57

9.09

9.61

0.24

AEO92

6.86

7.42

7.88

8.16

8.55

8.80

9.06

9.32

0.28

AEO93

7.25

8.01

8.49

9.06

9.38

9.92

10.29

0.68

AEO94

8.04

8.77

9.21

9.60

10.02

10.24

0.87

AEO95

8.09

8.65

8.99

9.56

9.89

0.43

AEO96

8.25

8.51

8.82

9.31

0.21

AEO97

8.49

8.89

9.58

0.14

AEO98

9.05

9.29

0.14

AEO99

9.26

0.19

Actual Value

4.29

5.44

5.91

6.59

7.20

7.16

6.63

6.94

7.62

8.05

7.89

8.50

9.16

9.45

Average Absolute Error

1.21

0.74

0.60

0.76

0.85

0.56

0.71

0.72

0.52

0.47

0.80

0.44

0.38

0.34

0.61

(Percent Error)

AEO82

76.7

36.9

20.5

3.5

-7.5

-1.0

24.3

AEO83

20.0

0.0

-3.0

-12.1

-20.6

-16.9

-11.8

12.1

AEO84

13.1

-6.1

-6.4

-9.7

-12.4

-8.0

9.6

9.3

AEO85

-2.8

-19.5

-20.0

-25.2

-25.6

-20.1

-6.0

-4.0

-6.3

-8.2

-1.9

12.7

AEO86

-5.3

-9.0

-17.1

-17.8

-9.8

6.9

8.1

2.1

-1.1

3.9

-0.4

-4.6

-4.3

7.0

AEO87

-1.7

-8.3

-5.4

1.7

17.9

20.2

14.3

11.1

13.8

10.5

AEO89

-4.7

-5.0

4.6

20.1

22.9

15.9

12.3

17.6

12.9

5.2

3.2

11.3

AEO90

0.0

6.3

15.7

7.3

AEO91

1.7

9.4

5.8

-1.8

-4.1

2.7

0.8

-0.8

1.7

3.2

AEO92

3.5

6.9

3.4

1.4

8.4

3.5

-1.1

-1.4

3.7

AEO93

4.5

5.1

5.5

14.8

10.4

8.3

8.9

8.2

AEO94

5.5

8.9

16.7

12.9

9.4

8.4

10.3

AEO95

0.5

9.6

5.8

4.4

4.7

5.0

AEO96

4.6

0.1

-3.7

-1.5

2.5

AEO97

-0.1

-2.9

1.4

1.5

AEO98

-1.2

-1.7

1.4

AEO99

-2.0

2.0

Average Absolute Percent Error

28.1

13.6

10.1

11.5

11.8

7.8

10.6

10.3

6.8

5.9

10.1

5.2

4.2

3.5

8.8

AEO = Annual Energy Outlook.
Sources: Actual Values: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review 1998, DOE/EIA-0384(98) (Washington, DC, July 1999). Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook, DOE/EIA-0383(82-99) (Washington, DC, April 1983 - December 1998).