Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for AEO Forecast Evaluation,
From Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1996 to 1999
|
Variable |
Issues
1996 |
Issues
1997 |
Issues
1998 |
Issues
1999 |
|
Average Absolute Percent Error |
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|
Consumption |
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|
Total Energy Consumption |
1.8 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
|
Total Petroleum Consumption |
3.2 |
2.8 |
2.9 |
2.8 |
|
Total Natural Gas Consumption |
6.0 |
5.8 |
5.7 |
5.6 |
|
Total Coal Consumption |
2.9 |
2.7 |
3.0 |
3.2 |
|
Total Electricity Sales |
1.8 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
|
Production |
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|
Crude Oil Production |
5.1 |
4.2 |
4.3 |
4.5 |
|
Natural Gas Production |
5.4 |
5.0 |
4.8 |
4.7 |
|
Coal Production |
3.8 |
3.7 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
|
Imports and Exports |
||||
|
Net Petroleum Imports |
12.0 |
10.1 |
9.5 |
8.8 |
|
Net Natural Gas Imports |
20.0 |
17.4 |
16.7 |
16.0 |
|
Net Coal Exports |
17.1 |
22.1 |
22.8 |
24.5 |
|
Prices and Economic Variables |
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|
World Oil Prices |
82.2 |
53.1 |
51.3 |
56.7 |
|
Natural Gas Wellhead Prices |
120.4 |
76.0 |
72.1 |
70.2 |
|
Coal Prices to Electric Utilities |
47.1 |
34.8 |
35.3 |
35.9 |
|
Average Electricity Prices |
11.0 |
11.0 |
11.0 |
11.1 |
|
Gross Domestic Product |
5.4 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
|
aThe 1996 Issues reflects a comparison for AEO82 through AEO93. |
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