Table 1.  Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for AEO Forecast Evaluation, 
From Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1996 to 1999

Variable

Issues 1996 
(
AEO82 to AEO93)a

Issues 1997 
(
AEO82 to AEO97)

Issues 1998 
(
AEO82 to AEO98)

Issues 1999 
(
AEO82 to AEO99)

 

Average Absolute Percent Error

Consumption

       

 Total Energy Consumption

1.8

1.6

1.7

1.7

 Total Petroleum Consumption

3.2

2.8

2.9

2.8

 Total Natural Gas Consumption

6.0

5.8

5.7

5.6

 Total Coal Consumption

2.9

2.7

3.0

3.2

 Total Electricity Sales

1.8

1.6

1.7

1.8

         

Production

       

 Crude Oil Production

5.1

4.2

4.3

4.5

 Natural Gas Production

5.4

5.0

4.8

4.7

 Coal Production

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.6

         

Imports and Exports

       

 Net Petroleum Imports

12.0

10.1

9.5

8.8

 Net Natural Gas Imports

20.0

17.4

16.7

16.0

 Net Coal Exports

17.1

22.1

22.8

24.5

         

Prices and Economic Variables

       

 World Oil Prices

82.2

53.1

51.3

56.7

 Natural Gas Wellhead Prices

120.4

76.0

72.1

70.2

 Coal Prices to Electric Utilities

47.1

34.8

35.3

35.9

 Average Electricity Prices

11.0

11.0

11.0

11.1

 Gross Domestic Product

5.4

5.0

5.0

5.0

aThe 1996 Issues reflects a comparison for AEO82 through AEO93.
Notes: AEO = Annual Energy Outlook. The earlier Issues reports are: Energy Information Administration, Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1996, DOE/EIA-0607(96) (Washington, DC, September 1996); Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1997, DOE/EIA-0607(97) (Washington, DC, July 1997); and Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998, DOE/EIA-0607(98) (Washington, DC, July 1998).
Source: Tables 2 through 17.