Preface
| This report presents international energy projections through 2030,
prepared
by the Energy Information Administration, including outlooks
for major energy
fuels and associated carbon dioxide emissions. |
The International Energy Outlook 2009 (IEO2009) presents an assessment
by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international
energy markets through 2030. U.S. projections appearing in IEO2009 are
consistent with those published in EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO2009),
in March 2009. A revised, updated AEO2009 reference case projection was
released on April 17, 2009. It reflects the impact of provisions in the
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA2009), enacted in mid-February
2009, on U.S. energy markets. The revised AEO2009 reference case includes
updates for the U.S. macroeconomic outlook, which has been changing at
an unusually rapid rate in recent months. Throughout IEO2009, significant
changes to the U.S. outlook relative to the published AEO2009 reference
case are noted for the reader’s reference.
IEO2009 is provided as a service to energy managers and analysts, both
in government and in the private sector. The projections are used by international
agencies, Federal and State governments, trade associations, and other
planners and decisionmakers. They are published pursuant to the Department
of Energy Organization Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-91), Section 205(c).
Projections in IEO2009 are divided according to Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development members (OECD) and non-members (non-OECD).
There are three basic country groupings in the OECD: North America (United
States, Canada, and Mexico); OECD Europe; and OECD Asia (Japan, South Korea,
and Australia/New Zealand) (see Appendix K for complete regional definitions).
Non-OECD is divided into five separate regional subgroups: non-OECD Europe
and Eurasia, non-OECD Asia, Africa, Middle East, and Central and South
America. Russia is represented in non-OECD Europe and Eurasia; China and
India are represented in non-OECD Asia; and Brazil is represented in Central
and South America.
IEO2009 focuses exclusively on marketed energy. Non-marketed energy sources,
which continue to play an important role in some developing countries,
are not included in the estimates. The IEO2009 projections are based on
U.S. and foreign government laws in effect on January 1, 2009. The potential
impacts of pending or proposed legislation, regulations, and standards
are not reflected in the projections, nor are the impacts of legislation
for which the implementing mechanisms have not yet been announced.
The report begins with a review of world trends in energy demand and the
major macroeconomic assumptions used in deriving the IEO2009 projections,
along with the major sources of uncertainty in the forecast. The time frame
for historical data begins with 1980 and extends to 2006, and the projections
extend to 2030. High economic growth and low economic growth cases were
developed to depict a set of alternative growth paths for the energy projections.
The two cases consider higher and lower growth paths for regional gross
domestic product (GDP) than are assumed in the reference case. IEO2009 also includes a high oil price case and, alternatively, a low oil price
case. The resulting projections— and the uncertainty associated with international
energy projections in general—are discussed in Chapter 1, “World Energy
Demand and Economic Outlook.”
Regional projections for energy consumption by fuel— liquids (primarily
petroleum), natural gas, and coal— are presented in Chapters 2, 3, and
4, along with reviews of the current status of each fuel on a worldwide
basis. Chapter 5 discusses the projections for world electricity markets—including
nuclear power, hydropower, and other commercial renewable energy resources—
and presents forecasts of world installed generating capacity. Chapter
6 provides a discussion of industrial sector energy use. Chapter 7 includes
a detailed look at the world’s transportation energy use. Finally, Chapter
8 discusses the outlook for global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions.
Appendix A contains summary tables for the IEO2009 reference case projections
of world energy consumption, GDP, energy consumption by fuel, carbon dioxide emissions, and regional population growth. Summary tables of projections
for the high and low economic growth cases are provided in Appendixes B
and C, respectively, and projections for the high and low oil price cases
are provided in Appendixes D and E, respectively. Reference case projections
of delivered energy consumption by end-use sector and region are presented
in Appendix F. Appendix G contains summary tables of projections for world
liquids production in all cases. Appendix H contains summary tables of
reference case projections for installed electric power capacity by fuel
and regional electricity generation by fuel. Appendix I includes a set
of comparisons of projections from the International Energy Agency’s World
Energy Outlook 2008 with the IEO2009 projections. Comparisons of the IEO2009 and IEO2008 projections are also presented in Appendix I. Appendix J describes
the models used to generate the IEO2009 projections, and Appendix K defines
the regional designations included in the report.
Objectives of the IEO2009 Projections
The projections in IEO2009 are not statements of what will happen, but
what might happen given the specific assumptions and methodologies used.
The projections provide an objective, policy-neutral reference case that
can be used to analyze international energy markets. As a policy-neutral
data and analysis organization, EIA does not propose, advocate, or speculate
on future legislative and regulatory changes.
Models are abstractions of energy production and consumption activities,
regulatory activities, and producer and consumer behavior. The projections
are highly dependent on the data, analytical methodologies, model structures,
and specific assumptions used in their development. Trends depicted in
the analysis are indicative of tendencies in the real world rather than
representations of specific real-world outcomes. Even where trends are
stable and well understood, the projections are subject to uncertainty.
Many events that shape energy markets are random and cannot be anticipated,
and assumptions concerning future technology characteristics, demographics,
and resource availability are necessarily uncertain. |
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