Preface
| This report presents international energy projections through 2030,
prepared
by the Energy Information Administration, including outlooks
for major energy
fuels and associated carbon dioxide emissions. |
The International Energy Outlook 2007 (IEO2007) presents an assessment
by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international
energy markets through 2030. U.S. projections appearing in IEO2007 are
consistent with those published in EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (AEO2007),
which was prepared using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). IEO2007 is provided as a service to energy managers and analysts, both in government
and in the private sector. The projections are used by international agencies,
Federal and State governments, trade associations, and other planners and
decisionmakers. They are published pursuant to the Department of Energy
Organization Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-91), Section 205(c).
Projections in IEO2007 are divided according to Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development members (OECD) and non-members (non-OECD).
There are three basic country groupings in the OECD: North America (United
States, Canada, and Mexico); OECD Europe; and OECD Asia (Japan, South Korea,
and Australia/New Zealand) (see Appendix K for complete regional definitions).
Non-OECD is divided into five separate regional subgroups: non-OECD Europe
and Eurasia, non-OECD Asia, Africa, Middle East, and Central and South
America. Russia is represented in non-OECD Europe and Eurasia; China and
India are represented in non-OECD Asia; and Brazil is represented in Central
and South America.
IEO2007 focuses exclusively on marketed energy. Non-marketed energy sources,
which continue to play an important role in some developing countries,
are not included in the estimates. The IEO2007 projections are based on
U.S. and foreign government laws in effect on January 1, 2007. The potential
impacts of pending or proposed legislation, regulations, and standards
are not reflected in the projections, nor are the impacts of legislation
for which the implementing mechanisms have not yet been announced.
The report begins with a review of world trends in energy demand and the
major macroeconomic assumptions used in deriving the IEO2007 projections,
along with the major sources of uncertainty in the forecast. The time frame
for historical data begins with 1980 and extends to 2004, and the projections
extend to 2030. High economic growth and low economic growth cases were
developed to depict a set of alternative growth paths for the energy forecast.
The two cases consider higher and lower growth paths for regional gross
domestic product (GDP) than are assumed in the reference case. New to this
report, IEO2007 also includes a high world oil price case and, alternatively,
a low world oil price case. The resulting projections—and the uncertainty
associated with international energy projections in general—are discussed
in Chapter 1, “World Energy and Economic Outlook.”
Regional projections of end-use energy consumption in the residential,
commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors are presented in Chapter
2, which also reviews worldwide forecasts for end-use sector energy consumption.
Regional projections for energy consumption by fuel—liquids (primarily
petroleum), natural gas, and coal—are presented in Chapters 3, 4, and 5,
along with reviews of the current status of each fuel on a worldwide basis.
Chapter 6 discusses the projections for world electricity markets—including
nuclear power, hydropower, and other commercial renewable energy resources—and
presents forecasts of world installed generating capacity. Finally, Chapter
7 discusses the outlook for global carbon dioxide emissions.
Appendix A contains summary tables for the IEO2007 reference case projections
of world energy consumption, GDP, energy consumption by fuel, carbon dioxide
emissions, and regional population growth. Summary tables of projections
for the high and low economic growth cases are provided in Appendixes B
and C, respectively, and high and low world oil price projections are provided in Appendixes D and E, respectively. Reference case projections
of delivered energy consumption by end-use sector and region are presented
in Appendix F. Appendix G contains summary tables of projections for world
liquids production in all cases. Appendix H contains summary tables of
reference case projections for installed electric power capacity by fuel
and regional electricity generation by fuel. Appendix I includes a set
of comparisons of projections from the International Energy Agency’s World
Energy Outlook 2006 with the IEO2007 projections. Comparisons of the IEO2007 and IEO2006 projections are also presented in Appendix I. Appendix J describes
the models used to generate the IEO2007 projections, and Appendix K defines
the regional designations included in the report.
Objectives of the IEO2007 Projections
The projections in IEO2007 are not statements of what will happen, but
what might happen given the specific assumptions and methodologies used.
The projections provide an objective, policy-neutral reference case that
can be used to analyze international energy markets. As a policy-neutral
data and analysis organization, EIA does not propose, advocate, or speculate
on future legislative and regulatory changes.
Models are abstractions of energy production and consumption activities,
regulatory activities, and producer and consumer behavior. The projections
are highly dependent on the data, analytical methodologies, model structures,
and specific assumptions used in their development. Trends depicted in
the analysis are indicative of tendencies in the real world rather than
representations of specific real-world outcomes. Even where trends are
stable and well understood, the projections are subject to uncertainty.
Many events that shape energy markets are random and cannot be anticipated,
and assumptions concerning future technology characteristics, demographics,
and resource availability are necessarily uncertain. |
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