Chapter 8 - Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions
| In 2006, non-OECD energy-related emissions of carbon dioxide exceeded OECD
emissions
by 14 percent. In 2030, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions
from the non-OECD
countries are projected to exceed those from the OECD
countries by 77 percent. |
Because anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide result primarily from
the combustion of fossil fuels, world energy use continues to be at the
center of the climate change debate. In the IEO2009 reference case, world
energy-related carbon dioxide emissions grow from 29.0 billion metric tons
in 2006 to 33.1 billion metric tons in 2015 and 40.4 billion metric tons
in 2030.44
From 2005 to 2006, total energy-related carbon dioxide emissions from the
non-OECD countries grew by 5.2 percent, while emissions from the OECD countries
declined by 0.3 percent. The decline in OECD countries’ carbon dioxide
emissions is projected to continue through 2010, as fossil fuel demand
contracts, in part because of the current global recession. Consequently,
annual emissions from the non-OECD countries exceed those from the OECD
countries by more than 30 percent in 2010 (Figure 80). Over the 24-year
projection period, the average annual increase in non-OECD emissions from
2006 to 2030 (2.2 percent) is seven times the rate projected for the OECD
countries (0.3 percent). In 2030, non-OECD emissions (25.8 billion metric
tons) exceed OECD emissions (14.6 billion metric tons) by 77 percent.
The IEO2009 reference case projections are, to the extent possible, based
on existing laws and policies. Projections for carbon dioxide emissions
may change significantly if existing laws and policies aimed at reducing
greenhouse gas emissions are changed or new ones are introduced. In addition,
beyond carbon dioxide there are other gases and sources that contribute
to greenhouse gas emissions. The other gases and sources may be addressed
in existing legislation and international treaties, but their reductions
would not be reflected either in EIA’s historical data or in the projections
in this report.
The relative contributions of different fossil fuels to total energy-related
carbon dioxide emissions have changed over time. In 1990, emissions from
the combustion of liquid fuels made up an estimated 42 percent of the world
total; in 2006 their share was 39 percent; and in 2030 it is projected to
be 35 percent (Figure 81). Carbon dioxide emissions from natural gas combustion,
which accounted for 19 percent of the total in 1990, increased to 20 percent
of the 2006 total, and their share is projected to stabilize at between
20 and 21 percent from 2006 to 2030.
Coal’s share of world carbon dioxide emissions grew from 39 percent in
1990 to 42 percent in 2006 and is projected to increase to 45 percent in
2030. Coal is the most carbon-intensive of the fossil fuels, and it is
the fastest-growing carbon-emitting energy source in the IEO2009 reference
case projection, reflecting its important role in the energy mix of non-OECD
countries—especially, China and India. In 1990, China and India together
accounted for 13 percent of world carbon dioxide emissions; in 2006 their
combined share had risen to 25 percent, largely because of strong economic
growth and increasing use of coal to provide energy for that growth. In
2030, carbon dioxide emissions from China and India combined are projected
to account for 34 percent of total world emissions, with China alone responsible
for 29 percent of the world total.
The Kyoto Protocol, which requires participating “Annex I” countries to
reduce their greenhouse gas emissions collectively to an annual average
of about 5 percent below their 1990 level over the 2008-2012 period, entered
into force on February 16, 2005. Annex I countries include the 24 original
OECD countries, the European Union, and 14 countries that are considered
“economies in transition.”45 Although 174 countries and the European Commission
have ratified the Kyoto Protocol, only the Annex I countries that have
ratified the Protocol are obligated to reduce or limit their carbon dioxide
emissions. The United States has not ratified the Protocol, and although
both China and India have ratified it, neither of those countries is subject
to emissions limits under the terms of the treaty. Table 14 compares carbon
dioxide emissions in selected Annex I countries or regions in 1990 and
2006 and their projected reference case values in 2010, 2020, and 2030.
Many of the Kyoto goals are being addressed by “Kyoto mechanisms,” such
as reforestation, which are not reflected in EIA’s projections of energy-related
carbon dioxide emissions. Additionally, some greenhouse gases other than
carbon dioxide often are the least expensive to reduce (for example, by
capturing fugitive emissions of methane). Those reductions may account
for a larger proportion of some countries’ Kyoto goals than would their
carbon dioxide emissions reductions.
There are signs that concerns about global climate change are beginning
to affect the world fuel mix. In recent years, many countries have begun
to demonstrate an interest in expanding their use of non-carbon-emitting
renewable energy and nuclear power, in part to stem the growth of greenhouse
gas emissions. The IEO2009 reference case projection for energy from hydropower
and other renewable energy sources in 2030 is 26 percent higher than the
projection in IEO2008, which in turn was 10 percent higher than the IEO2007 projection. Similarly, the IEO2009 projection for world electricity generation
from nuclear power is up by 2 percent from the IEO2008 projection, which
was 4 percent higher than the corresponding projection in IEO2007.
Reference Case
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
In the IEO2009 reference case, world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions
increase by an average of 1.4 percent per year from 2006 to 2030 (Table
15). For the OECD, annual increases in carbon dioxide emissions are projected
to average 0.3 percent over the 24-year period. The annual increases are
not uniform, however. OECD carbon dioxide emissions in the reference case
decline from 13.6 billion metric tons in 2006 to 13.4 billion metric tons
in 2010 and return to 13.6 billion metric tons in 2015 (essentially no
increase in OECD emissions over the decade), then increase to 14.6 billion
metric tons in 2030.
Projected emissions growth for the OECD countries over the 2006-2030 period
is much lower than was the case for the 1990-2006 historical period. In
addition, although the United States has not yet accepted internationally
binding emissions constraints, recent changes in U.S. laws and regulations
(as well as broader price and economic developments and observed behavior)
have lowered the projections for U.S. carbon dioxide emissions relative
to earlier estimates.46
In the IEO2008 reference case, the projection for U.S. emissions growth
was 0.5 percent per year from 2005 to 2030. In the IEO2009 reference case,
U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to grow at an
average annual rate of 0.3 percent from 2006 to 2030.47 As a result, the
projection for U.S. emissions in 2030 is 20 percent lower in IEO2009 than
it was in IEO2007 (Figure 82). Moreover, a recent Presidential Memorandum
that directs the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to reassess California’s
request for a waiver under the Clean Air Act that would allowing the State
to place stricter standards on greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles could
have an additional impact on U.S. emissions growth.48
The highest rate of increase in annual emissions of carbon dioxide among
the OECD countries is projected for South Korea, at 1.2 percent per year
(Figure 83). Mexico (1.1 percent per year), which is also still industrializing,
is the only OECD country other than South Korea for which the average growth
is projected to exceed 1 percent per year. The GDP growth rates projected
for South Korea and Mexico in IEO2009 are about the same, at 3.3 percent
and 3.4 percent, respectively. Japan’s emissions are projected to decrease by an average of 0.3 percent per year from 2006 to 2030, and OECD Europe’s
energy-related carbon emissions are projected to grow only slightly (by
0.1 percent per year).
For the non-OECD countries, total energy-related carbon dioxide emissions
are projected to average 2.2-percent annual growth (Figure 84). The highest
growth rate among the non-OECD countries is projected for China, at 2.8
percent annually from 2006 to 2030, reflecting the country’s continued
heavy reliance on fossil fuels, especially coal, in the projection. The
lowest growth rate among the non-OECD countries is projected for Russia,
at 0.6 percent per year. Over the projection period, Russia is expected
to expand its reliance on indigenous natural gas resources and nuclear
power to fuel electricity generation, and a decline in its population is
expected to slow its overall rate of increase in energy demand.
By fuel, world carbon dioxide emissions from the consumption of liquid
fuels are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 0.9 percent from
2006 to 2030. All the growth in carbon dioxide emissions is projected to
come from non-OECD countries, as total emissions from the OECD countries
decline in the early years of the projection period and return only to
2006 levels in 2030 (Figure 85). The highest rate of growth in petroleum-related
carbon dioxide emissions is projected for China, at 3.2 percent per year,
as its demand for liquid fuels increases to meet growing demand in its
transportation and industrial sectors. The United States is expected to
remain the largest source of petroleum-related carbon dioxide emissions
throughout the period, with projected emissions of 2.6 billion metric tons
in 2030.
Carbon dioxide emissions from natural gas combustion worldwide are projected
to increase on average by 1.6 percent per year, to 8.4 billion metric tons
in 2030, with the OECD countries averaging 0.9 percent per year and the
non-OECD countries 2.2 percent per year (Figure 86). Again, China is projected
to have the most rapid growth in emissions, averaging 5.2 percent annually;
however, China’s emissions from natural gas combustion amounted to only
0.1 billion metric tons in 2006, and in 2030 they are projected to total
only 0.4 billion metric tons—equivalent to 3 percent of China’s total energy-related
emissions and less than 5 percent of the world’s total emissions from natural
gas combustion. The much lower projected growth in U.S. emissions from
natural gas use, averaging 0.5 percent per year, still results in 1.3 billion
metric tons of emissions in 2030, which is more than triple the projection
for China.
Total carbon dioxide emissions from the combustion of coal throughout the
world are projected to increase by 1.7 percent per year on average, from
12.1 billion metric tons in 2006 to 18.0 billion metric tons in 2030. Total
coal-related emissions from the non-OECD countries were already greater
than those from the OECD countries in 1990, and in 2030 they are projected
to be more than 2.5 times the OECD total (Figure 87), in large part because
of the increase in coal use projected for China and India.
China accounts for 74 percent of the total increase in the world’s coal-related
carbon dioxide emissions from 2006 to 2030, and India accounts for 7 percent.
For China alone, coal-related emissions are projected to grow by an average
of 2.7 percent annually, from 4.9 billion metric tons in 2006 to 9.3 billion
metric tons (or 52 percent of the world total) in 2030. India’s carbon
dioxide emissions from coal combustion are projected to total 1.3 billion
metric tons in 2030, accounting for more than 7 percent of the world total.
In the United States—the world’s other major coal consumer—coal-related
carbon dioxide emissions rise more slowly, by 0.7 percent per year, to
2.5 billion metric tons (14 percent of the world’s total coal-related carbon
emissions) in 2030.
Carbon Dioxide Intensity Measures
Emissions per Dollar of GDP
In all countries and regions, energy-related carbon dioxide intensities—expressed
in emissions per unit of economic output—are projected to improve (decline)
over the projection period, as all world economies continue to use energy
more efficiently. In 2006, estimated carbon dioxide intensities were 386
metric tons per million dollars of GDP in the OECD countries and 624 metric
tons per million dollars of GDP in the non-OECD countries (Table 16).49
Fossil fuel use in the non-OECD countries increases strongly in the reference
case projection, but their economic growth is even stronger. As a result,
non-OECD carbon dioxide intensity declines by an average of 2.6 percent
per year, from 624 metric tons per million dollars of GDP in 2006 to 330
metric tons per million dollars in 2030. In particular, China, with a relatively
high rate of growth in emissions (2.8 percent per year), has an even higher
GDP growth rate (6.4 percent per year). As a result, its emissions intensity
falls from 1,001 metric tons per million dollars in 2006 to 443 metric
tons per dollars in 2030.
For all the OECD countries combined, average carbon dioxide intensity in
2030 is projected to be 246 metric tons per million dollars of GDP. Mexico
has the lowest carbon dioxide intensity among the OECD economies in 2030
in the reference case, at 184 metric tons per million dollars, followed
by OECD Europe at 196 metric tons and Japan at 242 metric tons. (Mexico’s
relatively low carbon dioxide intensity results in large part from its
projected 3.4-percent annual GDP growth rate, the highest among the OECD
countries.) Canada has the highest carbon dioxide intensity among the OECD
countries in 2030, at 359 metric tons per million dollars of GDP, followed
by South Korea at 351 metric tons and Australia/New Zealand at 322 metric
tons. U.S. carbon dioxide intensity in 2030 is 282 metric tons per million
dollars of GDP. For the entire world, average carbon dioxide intensity
falls from 484 metric tons per million dollars of GDP in 2006 to 294 metric
tons in 2030.
Emissions per Capita
Another measure of carbon dioxide intensity is emissions per person. Carbon
dioxide emissions per capita in the OECD economies are significantly higher
(about fourfold higher in 2006) than in the non-OECD economies (Figure
88). Among the non-OECD countries, China has the highest percentage increase
in carbon dioxide emissions per capita in the IEO2009 reference case, from
4.6 metric tons per person in 2006 to 8.0 metric tons per person in 2030
(Table 17 and Figure 89). Russia has the highest absolute increase, from
11.9 metric tons per person in 2006 to 16.0 metric tons per person in 2030.
Among the IEO2009 country groupings, the lowest levels of emissions per
capita in the world are in India and Africa. India’s emissions per capita
increase from 1.1 metric tons per person in 2006 to 1.4 metric tons per
person in 2030, and Africa’s emissions per capita remain at about 1.0 metric
ton per person from 2006 to 2030.
The OECD countries have higher levels of carbon dioxide emissions per capita,
in part because of their higher per-capita levels of income and fossil
fuel use. In the reference case U.S. emissions per capita fall from 19.7
metric tons per person in 2006 to 17.1 metric tons per person in 2030 (Figure
90). Canada’s emissions remain stable at around 19 metric tons per person
over the period. In Mexico, with the lowest level of emissions per capita
among the OECD countries in 2006 (approximately 4 metric tons per person)
there is essentially no change over the projection period.
Per-capita income is the most important determinant of carbon dioxide emissions
per capita, but other factors also affect the calculation. For example,
climate is important, because in general more energy is used per capita
for heating in colder climates than in warmer climates. Similarly, population
density is important, because densely populated countries use less energy
for transportation per capita than do more sparsely populated countries.
For example, Canada has both a relatively cold climate and low population
density, and its carbon dioxide emissions in 2006 are estimated at 18.7
metric tons per capita, whereas Japan has a more temperate climate and
a much higher population density, and its emissions in 2006 are estimated
at 9.8 metric tons per capita. Income per capita in Japan, by comparison,
was only 16 percent lower than Canada’s in 2006.
Alternative Macroeconomic Growth Cases
Economic growth is the most significant factor underlying the projections
for growth in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in the mid-term,
as the world continues to rely on fossil fuels for most of its energy use.
Accordingly, projections of world carbon dioxide emissions are lower in
the IEO2009 low economic growth case and higher in the high economic growth
case.
In the high growth case, world carbon dioxide emissions increase at an
average rate of 1.8 percent annually from 2006 to 2030, as compared with
1.4 percent in the reference case. For the OECD countries, the projected
average increase in the high growth case is 0.6 percent per year; for the
non-OECD countries, the average is 2.6 percent per year.
In the low growth case, world carbon dioxide emissions increase by 1.0
percent per year from 2006 to 2030, with averages of -0.1 percent per year
for the OECD countries and 1.8 percent per year for the non-OECD countries
(compared with 0.3 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively, in the reference
case). In 2030, total energy-related carbon dioxide emissions worldwide
(Figure 91) range from a projected 37.0 billion metric tons in the low
growth case to 44.1 billion metric tons in the high growth case—19 percent
higher than projected in the low growth case. The projections for emissions
by fuel show similar variations across the cases.
Alternative Oil Price Cases
The projections for carbon dioxide emissions in the IEO2009 low and high
oil price cases (Figure 92) show smaller variations from the reference
case than do those in the alternative macroeconomic growth cases. In 2030,
as compared with the reference case projection (40.4 billion metric tons),
total carbon dioxide emissions are higher in the low price case (42.2 billion
metric tons) and lower in the high price case (38.7 billion metric tons),
largely as a result of greater demand for liquids in the low price case
and lower demand in the high price case. Thus, there is a 9-percent difference
between the projections in the two alternative oil price cases, as compared
with a 19-percent difference between the alternative economic growth cases.
In the alternative oil price cases, world carbon dioxide emissions from
liquids consumption are affected more strongly than emissions from either
coal or natural gas, both of which are higher in the high price case and
lower in the low price case. Coal-related emissions in 2030 increase by
1 percent in the high price case relative to the reference case and decline
by 0.4 percent relative to the reference case in the low price case.
In the high price case, where world oil prices reach $200 per barrel in
real 2007 dollars in 2030 (as compared with $130 per barrel in the reference
case), nations choose alternative fuels over liquids wherever possible.
Consequently, liquids-related emissions total 11.7 billion metric tons
in 2030 in the high price case, down by 16 percent from the total of 14.0
billion metric tons in 2030 in the reference case. In the low price case,
where world oil prices decline to $50 per barrel in 2030, there is little
economic incentive for nations to turn to other forms of energy. Consequently,
liquids-related emissions in 2030 in the low oil price case, at 16.0 billion
metric tons, are 2.0 billion metric tons (14 percent) higher than projected
in the reference case.
World carbon dioxide emissions from natural gas combustion in 2030 total
8.8 billion metric tons in the high oil price case, 5 percent above the
projection of 8.4 billion metric tons in the reference case. In the low
price case, with higher levels of liquids consumption, natural-gas-related
emissions in 2030 total 8.3 billion metric tons, or 1 percent lower than
projected in the reference case.
Notes and Sources
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