[1.]  Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2000, DOE/EIA-0383(2000) (Washington, DC, December 1999).

[2.]  Energy Information Administration, National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2000, DOE/EIA-0581(2000) (Washington, DC, March 2000).

[3.] Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2000, DOE/EIA-0383(2000) (Washington, DC, December 1999).

[4.] Energy Information Administration, National Energy Modeling System: An Overview, DOE/EIA-0581(2000) (Washington, DC, March 2000). In addition to providing baseline projections of U.S. energy markets, NEMS is used to provide analysis of energy issues at the request of the U.S. Congress, other parts of DOE, and other government agencies.

[5.] Austan Goolsbee, "Investment Tax Incentives, Prices, and the Supply of Capital Goods," Working Paper 6192 (Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, September 1997).

[6.] Energy Information Administration, National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2000, DOE/EIA-0581(2000) (Washington, DC, March 2000).

[7.] Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2000, DOE/EIA-0383(2000) (Washington, DC, December 1999).

[8.] Austan Goolsbee, "Investment Tax Incentives, Prices, and the Supply of Capital Goods," Working Paper 6192 (Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, September 1997).

[9.] U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Building Equipment, Market Disposition of High-Efficiency Water Heating Equipment (Washington, DC, November 1996).

[10.] Energy Information Administration, Technology Forecast Updates: Residential and Commercial Building Technologies--Reference Case, prepared by Arthur D. Little, Inc. (Washington, DC, September 1998).

[11.] Fuel cell costs from Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2000, reference case.

[12.] Assumed financing terms also include a 20-percent down payment. Natural gas and electricity prices for this example are 2000 prices from Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2000, DOE/EIA-0383(2000) (Washington, DC, December 1999).

[13.]  Reference case results based on assumptions used for the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 (AEO2000). AEO2000 is available on the EIA web site at www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html, and the assumptions for AEO2000 are available on the EIA web site at www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/assumption/index.html.

[14.]  Personal communication from John McClelland, Office of Tax Analysis, Department of the Treasury, March 8, 1999.

[15.]  U.S. Department of Energy, Program for Energy Analysis of Residences (PEAR), DOE/SF/00098-H3 (Washington, DC, June 1989).

[16.]  U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Codes and Standards, MECcheck, Version 2.05 (Washington, DC, February 1998).

[17.]  DOE-2 and REM-RATE are two examples of building simulation models that are better equipped to handle some of these issues.

[18.]  The costs required to meet the efficiency levels specified by the tax credit proposal represent current construction practices, which are not necessarily least-cost methods promoted by other Federal programs such as Building America or the Partnership for Advancing Technology in Housing (PATH). For energy and carbon savings from a fully successful PATH program, see Chapter 3.

[19.]  Building Code Assistance Project, The Status of State Energy Codes Report, January 2000.

[20.]  Other MEC codes include 1992 and 1993 versions. See Building Codes Assistance Project, web site www.solstice.crest.org/ efficiency/bcap.

[21.]  The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency web site describes the Energy Star Homes program, including results for the past 12 months. See web site yosemite.epa.gov/appd/eshomes/eshomes.nsf.

[22.]  Energy Information Administration, Solar Collector Manufacturing Activity 1993, DOE/EIA-017(93) (Washington, DC, August 1994).

[23.]  Energy Information Administration, Housing Characteristics 1997, DOE/EIA-0314(97), www.eia.doe.gov/emeu.

[24.]  Energy Information Administration, Renewable Energy Annual 1996, DOE/EIA-0603(96) (Washington DC, March 1997) and Renewable Energy Annual 1998, DOE/EIA-0603(98) (Washington, DC, December 1998).

[25.]  For more information on SMUD's PV Pioneer programs, see web site www.smud.org/home/pv_pioneer/index.html.

[26.]  Interpolation of estimated units from web site www.eren.doe.gov/millionroofs/ benchmark.html.

[27.]  U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, www.eren.doe.gov/ee.html.

[28.]  Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2000, DOE/EIA-0383(2000) (Washington, DC, December 1999).

[29.]  AFVs are vehicles that use alternative fuels (other than gasoline or diesel fuel). ATV vehicles use advanced vehicle technologies but consume conventional fuels (examples include gasoline-electric hybrids, diesel-electric hybrids, and gasoline fuel cells). LDVs include all passenger cars, minivans, sport utility vehicles, and pickup trucks.

[30.]  The term "electric vehicles" refers to all-electric vehicles, not including hybrid electric vehicles.

[31.]  Consumer purchase (market penetration) criteria were based on the U.S. Department of Energy's National Alternative-Fuel Vehicle Survey and were implemented in the NEMS transportation module by EIA's Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting in coordination with the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Transportation Technologies, and Argonne National Laboratory.

[32.]  According to the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV) program, the earliest possible availability date for a production prototype fuel cell vehicle would be 2004. DaimlerChrysler has announced that a production prototype will be available by 2004. Inherent in the 2005 date is a 1-year period to convert production prototypes to actual production vehicles and to modify production lines and facilities.

[33.]  Only in the State of California may manufacturers meet up to 60 percent of the Low Emission Vehicle Program's Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandates with sales of hybrid electric vehicles. However, hybrid electric vehicles receive no more than approximately 30 to 60 percent of one ZEV credit. For example, the Toyota Prius would receive 0.32 ZEV credits. Therefore, hybrid electric sales could be higher in California.

[34.]  Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2000, DOE/EIA-0383(2000) (Washington, DC, December 1999).

[35.]  Toyota has publicly announced that it would not introduce the Prius into the U.S. market without improving the efficiency of the ambient vehicle temperatures (air conditioning and heating) and increasing the performance to match recent U.S. consumer demand. Both alterations to the original Prius design will lower its fuel economy. Toyota has increased the engine size from 1.4 liters in the Japanese Prius to 2.2 liters in the U.S. Prius.

[36.]  Closed-loop biomass facilities are fueled by organic material from crops that are planted exclusively for use in electricity production.

[37.]  This value excludes about 60 megawatts of repowered wind plants in California that are able to qualify for the EPACT PTC.

[38.]  Energy Information Administration, Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 1998, DOE/EIA-0573(98) (Washington, DC, October 1999), p.31.

[39.]  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Atmospheric Pollution Prevention Division, Energy Project Landfill Gas Utilization Software (E-PLUS) Version 1.0, EPA-430-B-97-006 (Washington, DC, January 1997).

[40.]  D. Augenstein, "The Greenhouse Effect and U.S. Landfill Methane," Global Environment Change (December 1992), pp. 311-328.

[41.]  Energy Information Administration, Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 1998, DOE/EIA-0573(98)(Washington, DC, October 1999), Appendix A: Estimation Methods, pp. 88-90.

[42.]  Governmental Advisory Associates, Inc., METH2000 Database (Westport, CT, January 25, 2000).

[43.]  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Landfill Methane Outreach Program, State Landfill Profiles, February 14, 2000.

[44.]  Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2000, DOE/EIA-0383(2000) (Washington, DC, December 1999).

[45.]  Energy Information Administration, Analysis of the Climate Change Technology Initiative, SR/OIAF/99-01 (Washington, DC, April 1999).

[46.]  Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2000, DOE/EIA-0383(2000) (Washington, DC, December 1999), Table F5.

[47.]  "Report to Congress on Federal Climate Change Expenditures," p. 12.

[48.]  Personal communication with the Energy Star program manager, April 5, 1999.

[49.]  Program goals and estimate of annual electricity consumption are from "Shaking out Savings," Association of Energy Services Professionals, Strategies, Vol. 10 No. 1 (Winter 1999), p. 7. The consumption and inventory figures in this article are actually closer to figures for canned beverage vending machines found in Arthur D. Little, Inc., Energy Savings Potential for Commercial Refrigeration Equipment (June 1996), which estimated annual consumption for canned beverage vendors at about 7 billion kilowatthours in 1994.

[50.]  See the Million Solar Roof web site, www.eren.doe.gov/millionroofs/ as of March 2000.

[51.]  See the Energy Star Buildings and Green Lights Partnership web site, www.epa.gov/buildings/esbhome/.

[52.]  Information on FEMP is available at web site www.eren.doe.gov/femp/.

[53.]  U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Office of Industrial Technologies, Budget Materials, February 2000, www.cfo.doe.gov/budget/00budget/ec/industry.pdf, p. 14.

[54.]  For comparability purposes, $13.5 million for black liquor gasification is included in the fiscal year 2000 total. However, this funding was included in the Office of Fossil Energy budget for fiscal year 2000.

[55.]  Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2000, DOE/EIA-0383(2000) (Washington, DC, December 1999), Table F3.

[56.]  For a more detailed description of the Industries of the Future program, see U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Office of Industrial Technologies, Summary of Program Results, DOE/EE-0184 (Washington, DC, January 1999), p. 9.

[57.]  U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Office of Industrial Technologies, Budget Materials, February 2000, p. 4, www.eia.cfo.doe.gov/budget/01budget/ec/industry.pdf.

[58.]  Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2000, DOE/EIA-0383(2000) (Washington, DC, December 1999), p. 118.

[59.]  Energy Information Administration, Energy Consumption Projections for Selected Industries of the Future, SR/OIAF/99-5 (Washington, DC, November 1999).

[60.]  Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2000, DOE/EIA-0383(2000) (Washington, DC, December 1999), p. 130.

[61.]  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Climate Wise Progress Report, EPA 231-R-98-015 (Washington, DC, October 1998), p. 4.

[62.]  Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2000, DOE/EIA-0383(2000) (Washington, DC, December 1999), Table F4.

[63.]  Including maintenance and operating costs and purchase price.

[64.]  National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences, Review of the Research Program of the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles: Fifth Report (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1999), pp. 96-98.

[65.]  Energy Resources R&D Portfolio, Draft-2 (2/6/99).

[66.]  U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Office of Transportation Technologies, Program Analysis Methodology (Washington, DC, January 15, 1999), p. 21.

[67.]  For a more detailed description of the transportation module, see Chapter 2.

[68.]  Energy Resources R&D Portfolio, Draft-2 (2/6/99), p. 204.

[69.]  Browning, "Technologies and Costs for On-Road Heavy-Duty Engines Meeting 2004 Emissions Standards," Society of Automotive Engineers technical paper no. 973256 (Society of Automotive Engineers: Warrendale, PA, 1997).

[70.]  U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Transportation Technologies, OHVT Technology Roadmap, DOE/OSTI-11690 (Washington, DC, October 1997).

[71.]  Ethanol blended into gasoline in 1998 represented 0.9 percent of net petroleum imports and 1.1 percent of motor gasoline product supplied.

[72.]  U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Scenarios of U.S. Carbon Reductions, Potential Impacts of Energy Technologies by 2010 and Beyond (Washington, DC, September 1997), pp. 5.30-5.31.

[73.]  Oxy-Fuel News Monthly Market Update (February 21, 2000).

[74.]  See also Energy Information Administration, Outlook for Biomass Ethanol Production and Demand, www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/analysis.html (Washington, DC, forthcoming).

[75.]  California has enacted legislation to restrict the use of MTBE and other States are considering similar legislation. If the use of MTBE were restricted and oxygen content requirements for gasoline remained in place, the use of ethanol would likely increase considerably.

[76.]  This is based on the 1999 study Bioethanol Multi-Year Technical Plan by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. An earlier study by the National Biomass Ethanol Program estimated a 50-percent cost reduction by 2020.

[77.]  The cellulose ethanol production capacity growth estimates are lower in AEO2000 than in the Annual Energy Outlook 1999. The capacity expansion rates in AEO2000 are based on an algorithm derived from the Mansfield and Blackman statistical models of new technology market penetration as described in Energy Information Administration, Outlook for Biomass Ethanol Production and Demand, www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/analysis.html (Washington, DC, forthcoming).

[78.]  In the Annual Energy Outlook 1999, ethanol was also used to produce ETBE, primarily in Petroleum Administration for Defense District V (California). In AEO2000, however, a ban on MTBE use in California was assumed to discourage the use of ETBE as well, therefore, this blending component was not produced.

[79.]  Energy Information Administration, Outlook for Biomass Ethanol Production and Demand, www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/analysis.html (Washington, DC, forthcoming).

[80.]  Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2000, DOE/EIA-0383(2000)(Washington, DC, December 1999) and Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity, SR/OIAF/98-03 (Washington, DC, October 1998).

[81.]  Energy Information Administration, Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity, SR/OIAF/98-03 (Washington, DC, October 1998).

[82.]  Electric Power Research Institute and U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Renewable Energy Technology Characterizations, EPRI TR-109496 (December 1997), pp. 4-23-4-24.

[83.]  Electric Power Research Institute and U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Renewable Energy Technology Characterizations, EPRI TR-109496 (December 1997), p. 5-57.

[84.]  U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Web site www.eren.doe.gov/biopower.

[85.]  For understanding of DOE's wind technology expectations, EIA relied on the wind technology characterization in Electric Power Research Institute and U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Renewable Energy Technology Characterizations, EPRI TR-109496 (December 1997), pp. 6-1, 6-31.

[86.]  Electric Power Research Institute and U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Renewable Energy Technology Characterizations, EPRI TR-109496 (December 1997), pp. 7-3.

[87.]  Based on discussions with Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.

[88.]  Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2000, DOE/EIA-0383(2000)(Washington, DC, December 1999), p. 217.

[89.]  National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Hydrogen Program Overview, DOE/GO-10095-088, DE94011827 (February 1995).

[90.]  National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Superconductivity Program Overview, DOE/GO-10095-012, DE95000204 (February 1995).

[91.]  National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Superconductivity Program Overview, DOE/GO-10095-012, DE95000204 (February 1995).

[92.]  The time line discussed here is the one given for central air conditioners by U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Codes and Standards.

[93.]  "President Clinton's FY 2001 Climate Change Budget," p. 6, and "Report to Congress on Federal Climate Change Expenditures," p. 11.