Notes

1 See Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1998, DOE/EIA-0383(98) (Washington, DC, December 1997), for the most recent AEO.

2 Energy Information Administration, Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1997, DOE/EIA-0607(97) (Washington, DC, July 1997).

3 For an analysis of EIA’s record for forecasts made from 1977 through 1993, see B. Cohen, G. Peabody, M. Rodekohr, and S. Holte, “A History of Mid-Term Energy Projections: A Review of the Annual Energy Outlook Projections” (unpublished manuscript, February 1995).

4 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1994, DOE/EIA-0383(94) (Washington, DC, January 1994).

5 Energy Information Administration, Analysis of S. 687, the Electric System Public Benefits Protection Act of 1997, SR/OIAF/98-01 (Washington, DC, February 1998).

6 Energy Information Administration, Analysis of Carbon Stabilization Cases, SR-OIAF/97-01 (Washington, DC, October 1997).

7 Energy Information Administration, The Impacts on U.S. Energy Markets and the Economy of Reducing Oil Imports, SR-OIAF-96-04 (Washington, DC, September 1996).

8 Energy Information Administration, An Analysis of FERC’s Final Environmental Impact Statement for Electricity Open Access and Recovery of Stranded Costs, SR-OIAF/96-03 (Washington, DC, September 1996).

9 Energy Information Administration, An Analysis of Carbon Mitigation Cases, SR-OIAF/96-01 (Washington, DC, June 1996).

10 The Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) provides quarterly forecasts of energy markets for up to 2 years in the future. The most recent projections are provided in Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Third Quarter 1998, DOE/EIA-0202(98/3Q) (Washington, DC, July 1998). Monthly updates are provided on the EIA web site at www.eia.doe.gov/forecasting_index.html.

11 The AEOs published in the years 1983 through 1988 were titled as the Annual Energy Outlook 1982 through the Annual Energy Outlook 1987. In 1989, the numbering scheme changed, and that year’s report was titled the Annual Energy Outlook 1989. Thus, although a forecast has been published annually, there is no Annual Energy Outlook 1988.

12 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1982, DOE/EIA-0383(82) (Washington, DC, April 1983).

13 The average absolute errors displayed in Table 1 are the average absolute percent errors for each variable shown in Tables 2 through 17. This measure is computed as the mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percentage errors shown for each AEO, for each year projected, for a given variable.

14 The forecast evaluation in this paper is only for the AEO reference cases, with the exception of a section on high and low economic growth cases. Each AEO has provided a range of projections, generally based on different assumptions for world oil prices and economic growth. In many cases, this range of forecasts has, in fact, encompassed the eventual outcome of the variables evaluated. In order to keep the analysis manageable, the focus is on the reference case projections.

15 All AEOs have projected prices in real—inflation-adjusted—dollars. In this paper, all price projections have been converted to nominal dollars, using historical deflators, to facilitate comparison across reports.

16 Prior to 1990, EIA did not collect data on dispersed renewable consumption and production, and the Annual Energy Outlook 1990 (AEO90) was the first AEO to include dispersed renewables in the projections. In Table 2, the actual data for 1990 and later include dispersed renewables. Total energy consumption for 1990 and later in AEOs prior to the AEO90 were adjusted to include dispersed renewables using adjustment factors derived from Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, DOE/EIA-0202(98/2Q) (Washington, DC, April 1998).

17 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1986, DOE/EIA-0383(86) (Washington, DC, February 1987).

18 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1991, DOE/EIA-0383(91) (Washington, DC, March 1991).

19 EIA published earlier forecasts in its Annual Report to Congress, which are not included in this report.

20 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1983, DOE/EIA-0383(83) (Washington, DC, May 1984).

21 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1984, DOE/EIA-0383(84) (Washington, DC, January 1985).

22 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1985, DOE/EIA-0383(85) (Washington, DC, February 1986).

23 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1987, DOE/EIA-0383(87) (Washington, DC, March 1988).

24 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1998, DOE/EIA-0383(98) (Washington, DC, December 1997).

25 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1990, DOE/EIA-0383(90) (Washington, DC, January 1990).

26 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1996, DOE/EIA-0383(96) (Washington, DC, January 1996).

27 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1997, DOE/EIA-0383(97) (Washington, DC, December 1996).

28 Stocks may also contribute but are assumed to be stable over the long term and have not been specifically projected in the AEO forecasts.

29 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1995, DOE/EIA-0383(95) (Washington, DC, January 1995).

30 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1993, DOE/EIA-0383(93) (Washington, DC, January 1993).

31 Forecasts of energy prices and the gross national or gross domestic product (GDP) have been converted to nominal terms by using the historical gross domestic product deflators.

32 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1989, DOE/EIA-0383(89) (Washington, DC, January 1989).

33 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1992, DOE/EIA-0383(92) (Washington, DC, January 1992).

34 “Forecasting Accuracy of the Electricity Market Model,” prepared by the Nuclear and Electricity Analysis Branch, Energy Information Administration (unpublished manuscript, July 30, 1992).

35 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1996, DOE/EIA-0384(96) (Washington, DC, July 1997).

36 The 1988 report was titled AEO87, and the first forecast year was 1987. In 1989 the numbering scheme changed and that year’s report was titled AEO89, with the first forecast year being 1988. Subsequent AEOs have followed this scheme. Hence, in 1992, AEO92 had 1991 as its first forecast year.

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Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation