International Energy Outlook 1999 - Transportation Energy Use

Transportation energy use is projected to constitute more than half of the world’s oil consumption in 2020. Developing nations account for more than half the expected growth in transportation energy use in the IEO99 forecast.

The International Energy Outlook 1999 (IEO99) presents a more detailed analysis than in previous years of the underlying factors conditioning long-term growth prospects for worldwide transportation energy demand. A nation’s transportation system is generally an excellent indicator of its level of economic development. In many countries, personal travel still means walking or bicycling, and freight movement often involves domesticated animals. High rates of growth from current levels in developing countries such as China and India still leave their populations with very limited transportation services in 2020 by industrialized standards.

Currently, transportation energy accounts for 48 percent of world oil demand (Table 19). Since 1970 transportation energy demand has grown by 110 percent or 18 million barrels of oil per day. The IEO99 reference case projection indicates growth in transportation fuel use of 77 percent or 27 million barrels per day by 2020. Virtually all demand growth involves increased use of oil products, and transportation accounts for 69 percent of the projected growth in oil demand over the next two decades. On a percentage basis, the increase in transportation energy consumption more than doubles the projected rise in world population. Developing countries account for 55 percent of the expected growth in transportation energy demand.

Growth in transportation sector energy demand within the industrialized countries, where modern transportation systems have been in place for many decades, is expected to average only 1.6 percent per year; but even in the most economically advanced countries, transportation energy use per capita continues to increase as people opt to drive larger and larger cars and as higher per capita incomes allow people to travel increasingly by air for long-distance vacations (Figure 73). Aggregate demand for transportation fuels in the industrialized countries in 2020 is projected to be about 10 million barrels per day higher than it was in 1996, reaching 34 million barrels per day (Figure 74). In many countries of the industrialized world, road congestion and vehicle ownership saturation may ultimately limit expansion of transportation sector energy demand [1, pp. 181, 210]. Car ownership in the United States and Canada is the highest in the world, and in these countries it is expected to reach saturation by the end of the projection period.

Figure 73. Transportation Energy Use per Capita by Country, 1980, 1996, and 2020

Sources: 1980: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use, International Statistics Database. 1996: Derived from EIA, International Energy Annual 1996, DOE/EIA-0219(96) (Washington, DC, February 1998). 2020: EIA, World Energy Projection System (1999).

Energy use for transportation has increased sharply in industrialized Asia in recent years, in part as the result of a shift to larger cars in Japan [1, p. 234], where the share of passenger cars with an engine capacity of more than 119 cubic inches increased from about 4 percent in 1989 to more than 21 percent in 1996. Although the Japanese economy has expanded more slowly in this decade than in the last, energy demand in Japan’s transportation sector has increased more rapidly in the 1990s than it did in the 1980s.

Sources: History: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use, International Statistics Database and International Energy Annual 1996, DOE/EIA-0219(96) (Washington, DC, February 1998). Projections: EIA, World Energy Projection System (1999).

Projected long-term economic growth in the developing regions of the world is the key force for expanded transportation energy use over the projection period. In the developing countries, transportation energy use is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.9 percent between 1996 and 2020, more than double the rate of growth in the industrialized countries (Figure 75). Expected incremental annual consumption totals almost 15 million barrels per day—an amount greater than North America’s total demand for transportation energy in 1996. The greatest gains are expected in developing Asia and Central and South America,¹⁷ where transportation energy demand has tended to keep pace with high rates of economic growth.

Sources: 1980: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use, International Statistics Database. 1996: Derived from EIA, International Energy Annual 1996, DOE/EIA-0219(96) (Washington, DC, February 1998). 2020: EIA, World Energy Projection System (1999).

The transportation sector underwent fast-paced growth in developing Asia in the 1990s. In fact, several countries in this region, including South Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand, had growth rates of more than 10 percent per year in the first part of the decade [2, p. 10]. Although the economic recession that began in 1997 and continued through 1998 has dampened the short-term expectations for growth in transportation energy use, the IEO99 reference case still projects growth of 4.2 percent annually between 1996 and 2020 in developing Asia (Figure 76). In China alone, transportation sector energy consumption is expected to grow by almost 7 percent per year as the government pledges major investments in the country’s transportation infrastructure, including railway, road, and inland waterways. In 1997, Chinese Premier Li Peng announced that China would add some 3,400 miles of railroad and 68,000 miles of road between 1995 and 2000 [2, p. 59].

Figure 76. Growth in Total Transportation Energy Use by Region, 1980-1996 and 1996-2020

Sources: 1980-1996: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use, International Statistics Database and International Energy Annual 1996, DOE/EIA-0219(96) (Washington, DC, February 1998). 1996-2020: EIA, World Energy Projection System (1999)

In Central and South America, energy use in the transportation sector is also expected to grow by 4.2 percent annually over the projection period. Argentina and Brazil have the most advanced transportation infrastructures in the region, with motor vehicle densities of 170 and 93 per thousand population, respectively, in 1995 (compared with 30 vehicles per thousand people in Peru) [3, p. 11]. In Argentina, rising per capita income over the past several years has meant a rapid increase in demand for automobiles. Automobile and truck production increased by 42 percent in 1997 to meet Argentina’s vehicle needs, as well as those of other Mercosur trading nations¹⁸ [4, p. 32].

The EE/FSU region shows some growth in transportation energy use in the forecast, but the projected gains barely counter the effects of the recent disastrous economic decline in the region. Energy consumed in the transportation sector in the EE/FSU region is about 45 percent lower than it was in 1990. Most of the decline is attributed to countries in the former Soviet Union, where transportation sector energy use fell from 2.7 million barrels per day in 1990 to a low of 1.2 million barrels per day in 1994. Since then, energy use for transportation has stabilized and increased slightly to 1.3 million barrels per day in 1996; but in the IEO99 reference case, energy demand in the FSU transportation sector does not recover to its 1990 level by the end of the projection period. In contrast, transportation energy use in the countries of Eastern Europe, which are well on the way to economic recovery, has already nearly returned to its 1990 level and is projected to double from its 1996 level by 2020.

The projections presented in this chapter, while more detailed than those included in earlier issues of the International Energy Outlook, nonetheless still reflect a simple framework of analysis (see discussion on "Analysis Assumptions and Approach"). The key variable for the projections is economic growth, applied to designated modes of transport: road, air, and other (rail, water, and pipeline). The largest component is road transportation. The factors shaping the growth of energy use for road transportation include the motor vehicle population and average use of fuel per vehicle.

Two key historical trends are projected to continue in the IEO99 forecast: transportation’s share of total primary energy use shows little increase, while its share of oil consumption grows steadily (Figure 77). These patterns continue for individual countries and regions, and they continue to characterize aggregate world energy markets despite persistent differences in market shares among regions.

The transportation share of primary energy consumption in industrialized nations is projected to average 26 percent in 2020, up from a 23-percent average share in 1996. Among developing nations the average share is 17 percent in 2020, up from 16 percent in 1996. In the EE/FSU region, where transportation has historically made up a smaller part of total energy use, its share recovers from recent dips but still reaches only 10 percent by 2020.

Total world oil consumption is expected to increase at an average annual rate of 1.8 percent between 1996 and 2020 in the reference case, 25 percent below the rate of increase expected for transportation oil use. Hence, the importance of transportation in oil markets grows, reaching a 51-percent share by 2020 (up from 42 percent in 1996 and 35 percent in 1980). Regional differences are expected to continue, but projected higher demand for transportation services throughout most of the world causes an increase in the transportation share of oil use. An exception is the EE/FSU region, where expected growth in oil use for industrial and building sector energy services almost matches the growth in transportation energy use.

Petroleum products continue to dominate transportation energy use, maintaining a nearly constant 95-percent world market share throughout the forecast. The major petroleum products used in the transportation sector worldwide are motor gasoline, diesel fuel, and jet fuel. Patterns of fuel consumption in the transportation sector vary widely from country to country. For instance, in the United States, gasoline is the dominant petroleum product used to fuel the country’s personal-use motor vehicle fleet, whereas in many Western European countries—where gasoline is heavily taxed— diesel fuel use predominates. Indeed, the diesel car share of new car sales in Western Europe grew from 14 percent in 1990 to 22 percent in 1996 [6, p. 13], and IEO99 projects that European reliance on diesel for road use will remain high, increasing from 46 percent in 1996 to 51 percent in 2020.

In India, diesel fuel use also dominates transportation energy use, but this is attributed to a high reliance on freight travel rather than a penetration of diesel-fueled passenger cars [2, p. 86]. In addition, India’s aging coal locomotives are increasingly being replaced by diesel and electric engines with the result that the country’s dependence on coal as a transportation fuel declines in the forecast.

Concerns about limiting greenhouse gases add another level of uncertainty to the projections. In the United States and Western Europe there is some debate as to whether stronger penetration of diesel-fueled vehicles should be encouraged as a means of reducing carbon emissions. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is expected to finalize its “Tier 2 standards” in 1999, which will require further reductions in emissions of hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter from light-duty vehicles (passenger cars and light-duty trucks, including sport utility vehicles, minivans, and pickup trucks) beginning with the 2004 model year [7]. Penetration of advanced diesel technology, including a direct injection diesel technology with 50 percent higher fuel efficiency than an equivalent conventional gasoline engine, might reduce carbon emissions by as much as 13 million metric tons in 2020 [8, pp. 1 and 6]. Advanced diesel technology, however, is not a perfect solution to the problem of reducing greenhouse gases. Although the technology is more efficient and could, as a result, reduce carbon emissions, it may also cause unacceptable increases in emissions of nitrogen oxides and particulate matter.

The European Union is also enacting tighter standards on car emissions that might influence future trends in road energy use in Western Europe. The “Euro-III” and “Euro-IV” standards are designed to achieve “cost- effective reductions in emissions through controls on a variety of vehicle types and on fuel quality” [9]. Euro-III standards take effect for new car models in 2000 and for existing cars in 2001; Euro-IV standards will be applied in 2005 and 2006. Many European countries also require motor vehicle owners to pay a vehicle excise tax to encourage people to buy smaller, cleaner cars. In addition, the high motor gasoline taxes levied on European consumers and, to a lesser extent, the fuel efficiency advantages of diesel vehicles have encouraged drivers to rely increasingly on diesel automobiles.

Worldwide, gasoline use averages 2.2-percent annual growth between 1996 and 2020 in the IEO99 reference case, lower than the annual growth rates projected for jet and diesel fuel (3.7 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively). Accordingly, gasoline’s share of total transportation energy use drops from 50 percent to 46 percent, the jet fuel share rises from 12 percent to 17 percent, and diesel’s share increases slightly to 26 percent in 2020. Consumption of residual fuel oil, following historical trends, is expected to grow more slowly, and its share of transportation energy use slips to 5 percent by 2020 (Figure 78).

Non-petroleum energy use for transportation (included in “other” in Figure 78) consists mainly of natural gas use in pipelines. Alternative fuels are assumed not to expand their current niche market status in the transportation sector between 1996 and 2020. One significant market for alternative fuels is Brazil, where ethanol derived from agricultural waste is an important source of road energy. Ethanol accounted for one-fifth of total road energy use in Brazil in 1995. This large share is maintained because of a government program started in the 1970s to decrease the country’s reliance on imported oil by subsidizing alcohol production from sugar cane (see discussion on "Ethanol in Brazil"). Although the policy has been scaled back, environmental concerns are expected to increase the use of ethanol as a blending component for gasoline [10].

Road vehicles maintain a dominant share of over 70 percent of transportation energy use throughout the forecast (Figure 79). Worldwide, the growth in energy use by road vehicles averages 2.4 percent per year between 1996 and 2020, the same rate as between 1980 and 1996 (Figure 80). In the industrialized nations, however, road energy use is expected to grow more slowly than in recent years because of slower growth in population and vehicle ownership. Fuel use for air transportation in the industrialized world averages 2.9-percent annual growth between 1996 and 2020, compared with 2.3 percent between 1980 and 1996, and is expected to account for 17 percent of all transportation energy use by 2020, up from 12 percent in 1996. The projected growing per capita incomes among people in the industrialized countries are expected to result in increased long-distance travel by airplane for vacations.

Figure 80. Growth in World Total Transportation Energy Use by Mode, 1980-1996 and 1996-2020

Fuel use for rail transportation shows positive growth in the forecast, reversing recent declines, while fuel use for inland water shipping declines slightly. Ocean transport (bunker) energy use, following long-term growth in international trade, rises at about twice the rate seen in recent years. Pipeline energy use increases only modestly, based on historical trends up to 1996 and pipeline projects completed since 1996 or future planned projects. New pipelines may have a major impact on pipeline energy use. For example, the pipeline capacity that came on line in the FSU in 1993 increased world pipeline energy use by 88 percent (318 thousand barrels per day). However, even if pipeline energy use in 2020 increased to three times the level expected in the IEO99 reference case, it still would make up only 5 percent of total transportation energy use.

Worldwide, energy use by road vehicles (including cars, freight trucks, utility vehicles, and buses) is expected to increase at an average annual rate of 2.4 percent between 1996 and 2020 in the IEO99 reference case, reaching 45 million barrels per day by 2020. Rising vehicle ownership rates among developing regions, especially in developing Asia and Central and South America, account for almost two-thirds of the projected increase in road energy use (Figure 81).

Sources: 1996: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 1996, DOE/ EIA-0219(96) (Washington, DC, February 1998). 2020: EIA, World Energy Projection System (1999).

In the industrialized regions of North America, Western Europe, and industrialized Asia, road transportation systems are relatively mature, and far slower growth is projected than in developing regions. The road energy share of transportation sector energy consumption in the industrialized nations falls from 61 percent in 1996 to 47 percent in 2020 in the reference case, but in the developing countries it is expected to grow. For developing Asia and Latin America (Mexico and Central and South America), the combined share of road energy consumption reaches 36 percent by 2020, up from a 22-percent share in 1996 (Figure 82). Small increases in the road use share of transportation energy are also expected in the Middle East and Africa.

Clearly, the growth in road energy use will be strongly influenced by the growth in motor vehicle populations. In the reference case projection, the number of road vehicles passes 1.1 billion by 2020—425 million above the level in 1996 (Figure 83). The projected increase rivals the total vehicle fleet of all the industrialized nations combined in 1995. Worldwide, growth in the number of road vehicles is expected to average 2.0 percent per year between 1996 and 2020. The developing nations, however, average 5.0-percent annual growth, and by 2020 they account for 37 percent of the world vehicle stock—nearly twice their 1996 share (Figure 84).

Sources: History: American Automobile Manufacturers Association, World Motor Vehicle Data (Detroit, MI, 1997). Projections: EIA, World Energy Projection System (1999).

Sources: 1980 and 1996: American Automobile Manufacturers Association, World Motor Vehicle Data (Detroit, MI, 1997). 2020: EIA, World Energy Projection System (1999).

The number of road vehicles in service in a region is estimated by multiplying the region’s projected population by an estimate of the extent of its “motorization.” Motorization in this context is the total number of road vehicles per thousand people. Motorization levels by country and region fall into two broad categories: mature and emerging. Motorization in the industrialized countries is considered mature. Nations in this category have modern road and vehicle infrastructure systems. Because their motorization levels are already high, their average motorization rate is projected to increase by only 0.5 percent per year between 1996 and 2020.

Motorization in much of the developing world can be characterized as emerging. These nations have rudimentary road systems and personal travel that is fueled in large part by “person power” (walking or biking). Motorization levels among the developing nations, low at present, are expected to rise rapidly, averaging 3.5-percent annual growth between 1996 and 2020 as strong long-term economic growth, rising per capita incomes, and increasing urbanization lead to increased use of motor vehicles for personal travel. Even at that rate of increase, however, the level of motorization in the developing world is expected to reach only one-tenth the level in the industrialized nations by 2020.

Consistent with recent trends, motorization among the industrialized nations is expected to increase slowly above current levels (Figure 85). In the industrialized world, many countries are expected to reach saturation levels in terms of motorization. The United States and Canada are assumed to reach motorization levels of 800 and 700 vehicles per thousand people in 2020. Even Japan, France, and Germany are expected to reach 650 vehicles per thousand population by the end of the projection period and the United Kingdom about 600.

Sources: History: American Automobile Manufacturers Association, World Motor Vehicle Data (Detroit, MI, 1997). Projections: EIA, World Energy Projection System (1999).

Some developing countries, including Mexico and Brazil, have already achieved significant levels of motorization, although they are still substantially lower than those of the industrialized world. Historical data on motorization and growth in per capita income in these developing nations guided estimates of future motorization levels. In Mexico, motorization is expected to more than double between 1996 and 2020, rising from 139 vehicles per thousand people in 1996 to 438 vehicles per thousand people in 2020 (Figure 86). The Latin American countries, in general, have higher vehicle ownership rates than many other developing countries, based on their higher per capita incomes, high levels of urbanization, historically low subsidized prices for transportation fuels throughout the region, and the large distances separating cities [1, p. 354].

Sources: 1996: American Automobile Manufacturers Association, World Motor Vehicle Data (Detroit, MI, 1997). 2020: EIA, World Energy Projection System (1999).

Several developing Asian countries have also achieved fairly high motorization levels. South Korea is projected to reach a motorization level of 450 vehicles per thousand people by 2020, up from 207 in 1996. There has been substantial growth in motorization in South Korea over the past decades. Since 1980—when there were an estimated 14 vehicles per thousand people—motorization has grown by an average of 18.4 percent per year. This trend is expected to continue through the projection period as the motorization level approaches that of the industrialized countries of Western Europe.

For those developing Asian countries that had barely begun providing wide-scale road transportation services by 1996 (China, India, and other developing Asia), motorization levels are expected to remain low throughout the projection period, despite robust projected growth. In China, the number of motor vehicles per thousand people is projected to increase by 7.6 percent annually between 1996 and 2020, but motorization increases only from 9 to 54 vehicles per thousand people—less than one-fourteenth the current U.S. level.

In the Middle East, vehicle ownership is expected to grow by 2.7 percent per year over the projection period, rising from 55 to 103 vehicles per thousand people between 1996 and 2020. Motorization levels in the Middle East are not expected to approach those of industrialized countries, such as France, Germany, or Japan. One reason for the slow projected growth in car ownership in the Middle East is that in some of the countries women are actively discouraged from driving, ultimately limiting the fraction of the population that will own cars [2, p. 399]. Another reason for the lower motorization rates in this region is the age distribution of the population in some countries. In Saudi Arabia, for example, Standard & Poor’s DRI has estimated that there are currently about 90 vehicles per thousand people [15, p. 240], despite the fact that 60 percent of the population is under the age of 20.

Energy projections for a road vehicle that is a composite representation of all road vehicles implicitly include assumptions about the future mix of vehicles and their individual usage and efficiency characteristics. Because a freight truck’s annual fuel consumption may easily equal that of 30 passenger cars, these assumptions are critical to the energy forecast. For developing countries, major changes in average vehicle characteristics mark the transformation of a nation’s road system from one dominated by inefficient trucks driving long hours on poor roads to one increasingly focused on personal passenger vehicles. Not surprisingly, the assumptions made about vehicle energy intensity for developing nations differ from those for industrialized nations. In each case, however, projected trends follow smoothly from historical data.

Projections of vehicle energy intensity (energy use per vehicle per year) are based on an analysis of historical trends in both industrialized and developing countries. Three observations from the analysis shaped the methodology used to project changes in energy intensity for each country’s average road vehicle:

Among the industrialized nations, data categorized by vehicle type (freight truck, passenger car, and commercial size van) commonly include vehicle registrations and travel as well as fuel consumption. Average energy intensity is generally a derived estimate calculated as the quotient of fuel use per vehicle per year and miles traveled per vehicle per year. Where available, such data are the foundation for energy projections by vehicle use category. They define a starting point for analysis and a benchmark against which projections can be measured. For the developing nations (where most growth is expected) data on the total number of registered vehicles and total road energy use are often available, information about vehicle mix (freight truck versus passenger car) and use patterns of vehicles is limited, and data on fuel use by vehicle type are practically nonexistent.

In industrialized countries little change is expected in each country’s annual fuel consumption per vehicle, as projected increases in vehicle travel are nearly balanced by increases in vehicle efficiency (Figures 87 and 88). Vehicle energy intensities also continue practically unchanged over the forecast. The United States and Canada maintain average vehicle fuel consumption rates of 19 and 15 barrels per year, respectively, throughout the forecast, roughly 60 percent higher than the rate in Western Europe and 100 percent higher than the rate in Japan. Higher vehicle efficiencies in Western Europe and Japan explain some of the difference, but factors that affect annual vehicle travel—such as land area, population density, and the spatial distribution of employment and consumer services relative to residences—are more significant. Such differences are unlikely to change appreciably over the forecast period.

Sources: History: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use, International Statistics Database and International Energy Annual 1996, DOE/EIA-0219(96) (Washington, DC, February 1998), and American Automobile Manufacturers Association, World Motor Vehicle Data (Detroit, MI, 1997). Projections: EIA, World Energy Projection System (1999).

Given that the data refer to a composite representation of all road vehicles, the near constancy of each industrialized nation’s vehicle energy intensity is striking—1995 values differ from those in 1985 by only a few percent, and no trend is apparent. The mature economies of the industrialized nations appear to have reached a stage at which changes in the mix, usage, and age distribution of vehicles no longer significantly influence changes in average vehicle energy intensity. In the reference case, vehicle efficiency improvements almost completely offset increased travel per vehicle, a trend consistent with historical experience over the past decade.

Vehicle energy intensities in developing regions, unlike those in the industrialized nations, have declined over the past decade. Declines continue in the forecast, but annual fuel use per vehicle remains higher than in industrialized countries (Figure 89). In the absence of data on vehicle travel and efficiency it was assumed that improved car and truck efficiency probably played a relatively minor role in declining energy intensity in developing nations between 1985 and 1995, and that changes in vehicle mix, in car and truck usage (miles per year), and in car and truck age and size distribution were and will continue to be important determinants of vehicle energy intensity. The development experience of South Korea and other nations was the basis for projections of continued declines in vehicle energy intensity (Figure 90).

Sources: History: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use, International Statistics Database and International Energy Annual 1996, DOE/EIA-0219(96) (Washington, DC, February 1998), and American Automobile Manufacturers Association, World Motor Vehicle Data (Detroit, MI, 1997). Projections: EIA, World Energy Projection System (1999).

Worldwide, energy use for air transportation is expected to grow faster than for any other transport mode between 1996 and 2020, with total consumption increasing by nearly 6 million barrels per day or 140 percent (Figure 91). As a result, the aviation share of total transportation energy use increases from 12 percent in 1996 to 17 percent in 2020. Total energy use for air transportation is expected to increase at an annual rate of 3.7 percent per year between 1996 and 2020—much faster than between 1980 and 1996. Air travel is expected to increase worldwide, because projected growth in per capita income will increasingly allow people to afford air travel. In addition, aircraft and system efficiency improvements (energy use per seat mile traveled) are expected to proceed at a much slower pace than in the past. The kinds of efficiency gains achieved with the introduction of high-bypass turbofan engines and wide-body aircraft are unlikely to be duplicated in the forecast period. On a regional basis, percentage increases in air transportation energy between 1996 and 2020 reflect regional economic growth rates (Figure 92).

Air transportation energy use in the industrialized countries is expected to grow by only 2.9 percent per year over the projection period, because the infrastructure supporting air travel in the industrialized world is well established. Air transportation energy use among developing countries is expected to grow at roughly twice the rate for industrialized nations, as strong long-term economic growth, particularly in the countries of developing Asia and Central and South America, fuels an expansion in air travel. In the EE/FSU region, estimates for air travel energy demand closely track the expected slow path of economic recovery, and energy consumption for air travel remains below the peak levels achieved in the late 1980s.

In developing Asia, strong growth in air transportation energy use is expected, with an average annual growth rate of 6.1 percent between 1996 and 2020. The air transportation share of total transportation energy consumption in developing Asia rises from 10 percent in 1996 to 15 percent in 2020 (Figure 93), when energy use for air travel is projected to surpass the 1996 total for North America. In many developing Asian countries, the airline infrastructure is far less extensive than that in the industrialized world. In China, for instance, there are only 192 airports with paved runways, whereas in the United States—which is roughly the same geographic size as China—there are 5,167 airports with paved runways [16]. Continued economic growth in the countries of developing Asia will require improved access to air travel.

Figure 93. Regional Shares of Total Air Transportation Energy Use, 1996 and 2020

The use of energy for air travel in Central and South America is projected to grow by 5.7 percent annually between 1996 and 2020, more than tripling to 558 thousand barrels per day. The infrastructure needed to support growing air travel varies widely among the countries of this region. The larger economies of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Venezuela have well-established airport facilities. In 1996, Argentina’s airports handled some 12 million passengers, Chile’s 2 million, and Venezuela’s Sim�n Bol�var International Airport more than 6 million [4, pp. 32, 88, and 207]. Brazil’s airline system connects most of the regions of the country, as well as major cities worldwide. In contrast, Peru and Colombia have relatively rudimentary airport facilities. Colombia has more than 1,000 airports, but only 60 percent of them have paved runways and only a few have the facilities to accept large-capacity cargo planes [4, p. 116]. Expanding tourism—resulting from stable currencies and improved economic conditions—is expected to support the growth of the air industry throughout the region. Further, in some countries, such as Venezuela, air freight transportation is expected to increase strongly, encouraged by the growing presence of foreign firms [4, p. 207].

Projections of energy use for rail transportation, inland water shipping, ocean shipping, and pipeline are based on historical energy consumption trends relative to historical GDP growth trends. These transportation modes are expected to account for a decreasing share of world transportation energy use as road (including freight trucks) and air transportation expand. Combined, the “other” transportation modes are expected to account for 12 percent of transportation energy use in 2020, down from a 17-percent share in 1996 and a 22-percent share in 1980.

Declining shares of transportation energy consumption do not indicate that rail and waterborne modes are declining in importance, in terms of either the volume or value of freight movement. Worldwide, energy use for these other forms of transportation is projected to increase from 5.1 thousand barrels of oil per day in 1996 to 6.5 thousand barrels per day in 2020. Freight modes remain vital to the commerce of many commodities and to growth in world trade. The projections for pipeline energy use are based on limited historical experience. Few nations have 1995 energy consumption data for this category.