[Report#:DOE/EIA-0484(99)]
Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable
Resources
Environmental Issues
and World Energy Use
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[1]
Turkey and Belarus are Annex I nations that have not ratified the Framework Convention on
Climate Change and did not commit to quantifiable emissions targets under
the Kyoto Protocol.
[2] The Annex I countries under the Framework Convention on Climate Change are Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the Ukraine, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Turkey and Belarus are also considered Annex I countries, but neither has agreed to any limits on greenhouse gas emissions.
[3] Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the Ukraine, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Turkey and Belarus are also considered Annex I countries, but neither has agreed to any limits on greenhouse gas emissions.
[4] Proven reserves are estimated quantities that analyses of geological and engineering data demonstrate with reasonable certainty to be recoverable in future years from known reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions. However, significant reserves in the probable category are included in “reserves” estimates for various countries, including those of the former Soviet Union.
[5] Because of Iran’s constitutional ban on foreign companies owning any of its oil and gas reserves, the companies would finance the energy projects and receive resulting repayment for their investment with oil and gas production.
[6] Throughout this chapter, tons refers to short tons (2,000 pounds).
[7] In the IEO99 reference case, world gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to increase at a rate of 2.9 percent per year between 1996 and 2020. In the low and high economic growth cases, world economic growth rates are assumed to be 1.3 percent lower and 1.2 percent higher, respectively, than in the reference case. By region, the dispersion in economic growth rates across the cases is less symmetrical than for the world as a whole, resulting in slightly asymmetrical variations in the projections of world coal consumption. In the low and high economic growth cases, the expected economic growth rates for China are 3.0 percent lower and 1.5 percent higher, respectively, than in the reference case.
[8] Recoverable reserves are those quantities of coal which geological and engineering information indicates with reasonable certainty can be extracted in the future under existing economic and operating conditions.
[9] Based on a 10-percent improvement in the average heat rate (or conversion efficiency) and a rise in the average capacity factor from approximately 55 percent in 1996 to 65 percent by 2020.
[10] Based on a 10-percent improvement in the average heat rate (or conversion efficiency) and a rise in the average capacity factor from approximately 50 percent in 1996 to 60 percent by 2020.
[11] “Town gas” (or “coal gas”), a substitute for natural gas, is produced synthetically by the chemical reduction of coal at a coal gasification facility.
[12] Internationally, the term “hard coal” is used to describe anthracite and bituminous coal. In data published by the International Energy Agency, coal of subbituminous rank is classified as hard coal for some countries and as brown coal (with lignite) for others. In data series published by the Energy Information Administration, subbituminous coal production is included in the bituminous category.
[13] In Spain, subsidies support the production of both hard coal and subbituminous coal.
[14] In local currencies, coal subsidies in 1996 were DM10.5 billion in Germany, Pta141.4 billion in Spain, and FF4.4 billion in France.
[15] Between May 1996 and August 1998, the Australian dollar lost 26 percent of its value compared with the U.S. dollar. Similarly, between January 1996 and August 1998, the South African rand lost 42 percent of its value [66].
[16] Greece and Ireland were allowed to delay compliance with the directive for 2 years.
[17] Central and South America comprises two regions modeled in the World Energy Projection System—Brazil and the rest of Central and South America. Mexico—included in North American totals in this report unless otherwise noted—is also projected to sustain high rates of growth. Individual forecasts for Mexico are provided in Appendix E.
[18] Mercosur member nations are Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay.
[19] If carbon reduction goals are implemented under the Kyoto Protocol, however, the economics of a natural gas pipeline from mainland Asia, as has been discussed in recent years, could become more favorable.
[20] “Closed-loop” biomass electricity generation uses wood grown specifically for use as a boiler fuel, and the carbon released during its burning is considered to have been previously sequestered, with no net release to the environment. In contrast, wood from existing forests would not be considered closed-loop biomass if its harvesting led to a net deforestation.
[21] This section of the chapter focuses on 2010, which is the middle of the commitment period for the Kyoto Protocol. Because the report was published in October 1998, the analysis was performed relative to the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 reference case projections, which were the most recent available.
[22] Since the Kyoto Protocol analysis was published, there have been slight changes in the U.S. baseline that affect the calculation of the Kyoto goal.
[23] The clean development mechanism (CDM) would allow an Annex I country to purchase a reduction from a non-Annex I country by providing funds for a project that would not otherwise be undertaken and would lead to lower net carbon emissions in that country. Full details on the rules of CDM agreements await further negotiation.
[24] For an analysis of EIA’s record for world oil price forecasts, see S.H. Holte, “Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation,” in Energy Information Administration, Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1997, DOE/EIA-0607(97) (Washington, DC, July 1997), pp. 100-101.
