Chapter 4:
Natural Gas
| Natural gas trails coal as the fastest growing primary energy source in
IEO2006.
The natural gas share of total world energy consumption increases
from 24 percent in 2003 to 26 percent in 2030. |
Consumption of natural gas worldwide increases from 95 trillion cubic feet
in 2003 to 182 trillion cubic feet in 2030 in the IEO2006 reference case
(Figure 34). Although natural gas is expected to be an important fuel source
in the electric power and industrial sectors, the annual growth rate for
natural gas consumption in the projections is slightly lower than the growth
rate for coal consumptionin contrast to past editions of the IEO. Higher
world oil prices in IEO2006 increase the demand for and price of natural
gas, making coal a more economical fuel source in the projections.
Natural gas consumption worldwide increases at an average rate of 2.4 percent
annually from 2003 to 2030, as compared with 2.5 percent per year for coal
and 1.4 percent per year for oil. Nevertheless, natural gas remains a more
environmentally attractive energy source and burns more efficiently than
coal, and it still is expected to be the fuel of choice in many regions
of the world. As a result, the natural gas share of total world energy
consumption (on a Btu basis) grows from 24 percent in 2003 to 26 percent
in 2030.
Worldwide, the industrial and electric power sectors are the largest consumers
of natural gas (Figure 35). In 2003, the industrial sector accounted for
44 percent and the electric power sector 31 percent of the worlds total
natural gas consumption. In the projections, natural gas use grows by 2.8
percent per year in the industrial sector and 2.9 percent per year in the
electric power sector from 2003 to 2030. In both sectors, the share of
total energy demand met by natural gas grows over the projection period.
In the industrial sector, natural gas overtakes oil as the dominant fuel
by 2030. In the electric power sector, however, despite its rapid growth,
natural gas remains a distant second to coal in terms of share of total
energy use for electricity generation.
In 2003, OECD member countries accounted for just over one-half of the
worlds total natural gas use, non-OECD Europe and Eurasia accounted for
one-quarter, and the other non-OECD countries accounted for the remainder.
The OECD countries are, by and large, mature consumers of natural gas with
well-established infrastructure and consuming patterns. In contrast, natural
gas infrastructure in the non-OECD countries, outside of non-OECD Europe
and Eurasia, is largely in its infancy, and natural gas demand is fairly
small. The IEO2006 reference case projects fast-paced growth in demand
for natural gas among those non-OECD countries, as their natural gas infrastructures
expand.
In the reference case, natural gas consumption in the non-OECD countries
grows more than twice as fast as consumption in the OECD countries, with
3.3 percent average annual growth from 2003 to 2030 for non-OECD countries,
compared with an average of 1.5 percent for the OECD countries. Natural
gas demand in the non-OECD countries accounts for 73 percent of the total
world increment in natural gas consumption over the projection horizon.
In the non-OECD countries (excluding non-OECD Europe and Eurasia) natural
gas use increases from less than one-quarter of the world total in 2003
to 38 percent in 2030.
Reserves and Resources

Figure Data |

Figure Data |
Table 8. World Natural Gas Reserves by Country as of January 1, 2006
Printer friendly version
| Country |
Reserves (Trillion
Cubic Feet) |
Percent of World Total |
| World |
6,112 |
100.0 |
| Top 20 Countries |
5,510 |
90.2 |
| Russia |
1,680 |
27.5 |
| Iran |
971 |
15.9 |
| Qatar |
911 |
14.9 |
| Saudi Arabia |
241 |
3.9 |
| United Arab Emirates |
214 |
3.5 |
| United States |
193 |
3.1 |
| Nigeria |
185 |
3.0 |
| Algeria |
161 |
2.6 |
| Venezuela |
151 |
2.5 |
| Iraq |
112 |
1.8 |
| Indonesia |
98 |
1.6 |
| Norway |
84 |
1.4 |
| Malaysia |
75 |
1.2 |
| Turkmenistan |
71 |
1.2 |
| Uzbekistan |
66 |
1.1 |
| Kazakhstan |
65 |
1.1 |
| Netherlands |
62 |
1.0 |
| Egypt |
59 |
1.0 |
| Canada |
57 |
0.9 |
| Kuwait |
56 |
0.9 |
| Rest of World |
602 |
9.8 |
|
Table 9. World Natural Gas Production by Region and Country, 2003-2030
(Trillion Cubic Feet)
Printer friendly version
| Region/Country |
2003 |
2010 |
2015 |
2020 |
2025 |
2030 |
Average Annual Percent Change, 2003-2030 |
| OECD North America |
27.1 |
26.4 |
28.1 |
29.3 |
29.9 |
30.4 |
0.4 |
| United States |
19.0 |
18.6 |
20.4 |
21.6 |
21.4 |
21.2 |
0.4 |
| Canada |
6.5 |
6.1 |
5.8 |
5.5 |
5.8 |
6.2 |
-0.2 |
| Mexico |
1.5 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
2.2 |
2.6 |
3.0 |
2.6 |
| OECD Europe |
10.7 |
10.9 |
11.0 |
10.7 |
10.7 |
10.3 |
-0.2 |
| OECD Asia |
1.5 |
2.4 |
3.2 |
3.9 |
4.4 |
4.8 |
4.3 |
| Japan |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
| South Korea |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
| Australia/New Zealand |
1.4 |
2.3 |
3.1 |
3.8 |
4.2 |
4.6 |
4.5 |
| Total OECD |
39.3 |
39.7 |
42.3 |
44.0 |
44.9 |
45.4 |
0.5 |
| Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia |
27.9 |
33.9 |
38.2 |
42.0 |
45.7 |
51.1 |
2.3 |
| Russia |
21.8 |
26.8 |
30.4 |
33.5 |
36.6 |
41.5 |
2.4 |
| Other |
6.1 |
7.1 |
7.8 |
8.5 |
9.0 |
9.6 |
1.7 |
| Non-OECD Asia |
9.7 |
12.9 |
16.5 |
19.9 |
23.7 |
27.4 |
3.9 |
| China |
1.2 |
2.4 |
3.0 |
3.5 |
3.9 |
4.4 |
4.9 |
| India |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
1.6 |
1.9 |
2.4 |
3.5 |
| Other non-OECD Asia |
7.5 |
9.3 |
12.2 |
14.8 |
17.8 |
20.6 |
3.8 |
| Middle East |
9.1 |
14.2 |
17.1 |
19.8 |
23.1 |
26.2 |
4.0 |
| Africa |
5.1 |
8.7 |
11.4 |
14.3 |
16.3 |
18.5 |
4.9 |
| Central and South America |
4.2 |
6.7 |
8.4 |
9.6 |
11.4 |
13.0 |
4.3 |
| Brazil |
0.3 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
4.8 |
| Other Central /South America |
3.9 |
6.2 |
7.7 |
8.8 |
10.5 |
11.9 |
4.2 |
| Total Non-OECD |
55.9 |
76.4 |
91.7 |
105.6 |
120.2 |
136.2 |
3.4 |
| Total World |
95.2 |
116.1 |
134.0 |
149.6 |
165.1 |
181.6 |
2.4 |
|

Figure Data |

Figure Data |

Figure Data |

Figure Data |
Historically, world natural gas reserves have, for the most part, trended
upward (Figure 36). As of January 1, 2006, proved world natural gas reserves,
as reported by Oil & Gas Journal,5 were estimated at 6,112 trillion cubic
feet70 trillion cubic feet (about 1 percent) higher than the estimate
for 2005 [1].
The largest revision to natural gas reserve estimates was made in Iran.
Irans natural gas reserves increased by 31 trillion cubic feet (3 percent)
between 2005 and 2006, from 940 trillion cubic feet to 971 trillion cubic
feet. Also in the Middle East, higher reserve estimates were reported by
Saudi Arabia, with an increase of 7 trillion cubic feet (3 percent). Other
countries with substantial increases in reserves include Norway with a
gain of 11 trillion cubic feet (14 percent), Nigeria with an increase of
9 trillion cubic feet (5 percent), and Indonesia with an increase of 7
trillion cubic feet (8 percent). Declining natural gas reserves were reported
for Bangladesh (a decrease of 6 trillion cubic feet), and smaller losses
were reported for Argentina (3 trillion cubic feet), Taiwan (2 trillion
cubic feet), Germany (1 trillion cubic feet), and the United Kingdom (1
trillion cubic feet).
Almost three-quarters of the worlds natural gas reserves are located in
the Middle East and Eurasia (Figure 37). Russia, Iran, and Qatar combined
accounted for about 58 percent of the worlds natural gas reserves as of
January 1, 2006 (Table 8). Reserves in the rest of the world are fairly
evenly distributed on a regional basis.
Despite high rates of increase in natural gas consumption, particularly
over the past decade, most regional reserves-to-production ratios have
remained high. Worldwide, the reserves-to-production ratio is estimated
at 66.7 years [2]. Central and South America has a reserves-to-production
ratio of 55.0 years, Russia 81.5 years, and Africa 96.9 years. The Middle
Easts reserves-to-production ratio exceeds 100 years.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) periodically assesses the long-term production
potential of worldwide petroleum resources (oil, natural gas, and natural
gas liquids). According to the most recent USGS estimates, released in
the World Petroleum Assessment 2000 and adjusted to reflect current proved
reserves, a significant volume of natural gas remains to be discovered.
Worldwide undiscovered natural gas is estimated at 4,221 trillion cubic
feet (Figure 38), slightly larger than the IEO2006 projection for cumulative
worldwide natural gas consumption from 2003 to 2030.
Of the total natural gas resource base, an estimated 3,000 trillion cubic
feet is in stranded reserves, usually located too far away from pipeline
infrastructure or population centers for its transportation to be economical.
Of the new natural gas resources expected to be added through 2025, reserve
growth accounts for 2,347 trillion cubic feet. More than one-half of the
mean undiscovered natural gas estimate is expected to come from Eurasia,
the Middle East, and North Africa; and about one-fourth (1,065 trillion
cubic feet) is expected to come from a combination of North, Central, and
South America.
World Natural Gas Supply
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia and the Middle East account for almost three-quarters
of the worlds natural gas reserves, but in 2003 they accounted for only
39 percent of world production. Together, these two regions account for
47 percent of the projected increase in global natural gas production from
2003 to 2030 (Table 9), much of it for export to OECD countries.
Russia is already the worlds single largest exporter of natural gas, with
net exports of 6.3 trillion cubic feet in 2003, all of it by pipeline.
There are also some plans to export natural gas from the Middle East, but
much of the regions increase in production is projected to be used domesticallyparticularly
in the electric power sector, where shifts from petroleum to natural gas
allow the producing countries to monetize more of their oil assets through
export.
Other non-OECD regions are also expected to increase their natural gas
production strongly. Africa, with its rich and underdeveloped natural gas
resources, has the fastest growth rate in natural gas production worldwide,
with supply rising by 4.9 percent per year from 2003 to 2030. A considerable
amount of the incremental production in Africafrom Algeria, Nigeria, Libya,
and Egyptis slated for export, both by pipeline and in the form of liquefied
natural gas (LNG).
Natural gas production in non-OECD Asia also grows substantially over the
projection period, but all the growth in supply is required for consumption
within the region, and imports are needed to fill the shortfall. In Central
and South America, natural gas production outpaces regional demand. As
a result, Trinidad and Tobago continues to export LNG outside the region.
Peru, and possibly Venezuela, may also begin to export LNG outside the
region over the course of the projection.
In 2003, the OECD countries accounted for 41 percent of the worlds total
natural gas production and 52 percent of total natural gas consumption;
in 2030, they are projected to account for only 25 percent of production
and 40 percent of consumption. Natural gas supply from the OECD nations
increases by an average of only 0.5 percent per year in the IEO2006 reference
case, whereas demand increases by 1.5 percent per year. As a result, the
OECD countries rely increasingly on imports to meet natural gas demand
(Figure 39), with a growing percentage of traded natural gas coming in
the form of LNG. OECD countries rely on natural gas produced in other parts
of the world to meet more than one-third of their natural gas consumption
in 2030, up from 22 percent in 2003.
LNG is expected to become an increasingly important source of supply to
meet the worlds demand for natural gas. Although there were only 12 LNG-exporting
countries in 2004,6 the number is increasing. In 2005, Egypt joined the
ranks of LNG-producing countries with the start of two separate liquefaction
projects. Russia also entered the LNG business in 2005, not with LNG it
produced but with LNG for which it traded pipeline natural gas [3]. Not
until 2008, when the Sakhalin liquefaction project is expected to start
operations, will Russia become an LNG-producing country. Norway and Equatorial
Guinea also have their first liquefaction terminals under construction,
and construction on the first liquefaction terminal in South America is
scheduled to begin in 2006 in Peru.
The number of countries installing the infrastructure necessary to accept
LNG imports is also increasing. More than 30 years had passed since the
United Kingdom imported LNG, but in 2005 it rejoined the ranks of LNG importers,
with the startup of its Isle of Grain regasification terminal. China, Canada,
and Mexico all have their first LNG import terminals under construction;
and Germany, Poland, Croatia, Singapore, and Chile are among the other
countries considering their first regasification terminals.
World Natural Gas Demand
OECD North America
North Americas natural gas consumption (Figure 40) is projected to increase
at an average annual rate of 1.1 percent between 2003 and 2030. The regional
growth rate for natural gas demand is somewhat slower than in past IEOs,
largely because of the impact of higher prices and supply concerns in natural
gas markets of the United States, North Americas largest consumer. The
United States accounted for more than 80 percent of the 27.4 trillion cubic
feet of natural gas consumed in the region in 2003, and its share of the
total in 2030 is 73 percent, despite robust growth in demand for natural
gas in Canada and Mexico, averaging 1.9 percent per year and 3.4 percent
per year, respectively.
The current high levels of natural gas prices in the United States are
expected to discourage the construction of new natural-gas-fired electricity
generation plants in the mid-term. As a result, only 130 gigawatts of new
natural-gas-fired capacity is added from 2003 through 2030 in the reference
case, as compared with 154 gigawatts of new coal-fired capacity. U.S. natural
gas consumption for electricity generation peaks in 2020 at 7.5 trillion
cubic feet, followed by a decline to 6.4 trillion cubic feet in 2030.
Natural gas prices in the United States remain relatively high throughout
the projection period; and as a result, consumption of natural gas in the
U.S. industrial sector grows slowly, from 8.3 trillion cubic feet in 2003
to 10.0 trillion cubic feet in 2030. Natural gas consumption increases
in all the major industrial sectors, with the exception of the refining
industry. High prices also limit consumption increases in the U.S. buildings
sector (residential and commercial), where natural gas use grows from 8.3
trillion cubic feet in 2003 to 9.6 trillion cubic feet in 2030. The net
result of changes in energy use in the electric power, industrial, and
other end-use sectors is that U.S. natural gas consumption is essentially
flat between 2020 and 2030.
Canada, currently the source of almost 90 percent of U.S. net natural gas
imports, remains the primary source of natural gas imported into the United
States until 2010. After 2010, LNG imports replace Canadian imports as
the primary source. The decline of Canadas largest producing basin, the
Western Sedimentary Basin, coupled with 1.9-percent projected average annual
growth in Canadas domestic consumption, leaves less Canadian natural gas
available for export to the United States.
In EIAs Annual Energy Outlook 2006 (AEO2006) reference case, rising natural
gas prices make it economical for two major North American pipelines that
have long been in the planning stages to come online. The first, a Canadian
pipeline to transport natural gas from the MacKenzie Delta, is expected
to become operational in 2011. The second, an Alaska pipeline, is expected
to begin transporting natural gas from Alaska to the lower 48 States in
2015, contributing significantly to U.S. domestic supply. From 2003 to
2030, Alaskas natural gas production accounts for most of the growth in
domestic U.S. conventional natural gas production, with flows on the pipeline
exceeding 2 trillion cubic feet in 2030.
The other expected source of U.S. domestic incremental supply is unconventional
natural gas production. More than one-third of the remaining U.S. technically
recoverable resource base consists of unconventional sources, which include
tight sands, shale, and coalbed methane. With most of the large onshore
conventional fields in the United States already having been discovered,
the United States, like Canada, must look to these costlier sources of
supply to make up for declines in conventional production.
Currently, the United States has five LNG import facilities in operation,
with a combined peak annual capacity of 1.6 trillion cubic feet. Three
additional terminals under construction in the Gulf of Mexico will add
a combined peak annual regasification capacity of 2.0 trillion cubic feet,
more than doubling U.S. LNG import capacity. AEO2006 projects peak annual
U.S. LNG import capacity in 2030 at 5.9 trillion cubic feet, with actual
imports of 4.4 trillion cubic feet (Figure 41). The growth of U.S. LNG
import capacity is expected to be strong through 2015 and then to slow
as high natural gas prices begin to slow the growth of domestic consumption.
LNG imports into Canada are also expected to contribute to the supply of
Canadian natural gas available for export to the United States. LNG is
expected to be a significant contributor to supply in the United States,
indicative of the countrys growing dependence on imports and the increasing
globalization of natural gas markets.
In Canada, most of the projected increase in natural gas consumption is
for industrial uses and electricity generation, with only moderate growth
in the other consuming sectors. Although natural gas use in Canadas electric
power sector more than doubles from 2003 to 2030, the largest absolute
increase is projected for the industrial sector, largely because significant
amounts of natural gas are expected to be used in the mining of Canadas
expansive oil sands deposits.
Canada produced more than twice as much natural gas as it consumed in 2003,
and the balance was exported to the United States. In 2030, Canada is projected
to consume 85 percent of its own production, leaving only 15 percent available
for export. Increases in unconventional production in western Canada and
conventional production in the MacKenzie Delta and Eastern Canada are expected
to help reverse the decline in production after 2020, and net exports to
the United States increase gradually from 2020 to 2030.
In Mexico, strong growth in natural gas consumption for industry and for
electricity generation is expected, with industrial consumption doubling
and consumption for electricity generation more than tripling between 2003
and 2030. Growth in Mexicos natural gas consumption is expected to far
outpace growth in its production. Although Mexico has significant untapped
natural gas reserves, the Mexican government does not have the resources
needed to develop them and to date has been relatively unsuccessful in
attracting foreign capital. Currently, only the state oil and natural gas
company, Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX), is allowed to have any ownership
interest in Mexicos oil and natural gas reserves. Mexico is thus expected
to be dependent on pipeline imports from the United States and LNG imports
to meet its growing supply deficit. In the reference case, imports grow
from 17 percent of Mexicos total natural gas consumption in 2003 to 33
percent in 2030. Throughout the projections, Mexico remains a net importer
of natural gas from the United States.
OECD Europe
Natural gas is expected to be the fastest growing fuel source in OECD Europe,
with demand increasing at an annual average rate of 2.0 percent, from 17.8
trillion cubic feet in 2003 to 23.9 trillion cubic feet in 2015 and 30.8
trillion cubic feet in 2030. Almost 60 percent of incremental natural gas
consumption in OECD Europe between 2003 and 2030 is expected to be used
for electric power generation (Figure 42). Natural-gas-fired generation
is less carbon-intensive than oil- or coal-fired generation and is expected
to remain more cost-competitive than renewable energy, making natural gas
the fuel of choice for new generating capacity in OECD Europe.
Natural gas consumption for electricity generation in OECD Europe increases
on average by 3.9 percent per year from 2003 to 2030, surpassing the use
of renewables for electricity generation (on a Btu basis) by 2015 and the
use of coal or nuclear power by 2020. The share of total electricity sector
energy demand met by natural gas increases from 14 percent in 2003 to 24
percent in 2015 and 32 percent in 2030.
OECD Europe received net imports of around 7 trillion cubic feet of natural
gas in 2003, accounting for more than one-third of the regions total natural
gas consumption. With domestic production declining in most of the countries
of OECD Europe, the regions reliance on imported natural gas grows to
more than one-half of demand in 2015 and almost two-thirds in 2030. Russia,
alone, currently provides around two-thirds of Europes imports, and much
of Europe was affected in January 2006 when Russia, in a dispute over contract
prices, cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine.
Security and diversity of natural gas supply are major concerns for OECD
Europe now and going forward. Europe is aggressively expanding LNG receiving
capacity, and several new pipelines have been proposed that would link
Europe to supplies in Egypt, the Middle East, and the Caspian Basin, and
would increase capacity from North Africa and add capacity from Russia
via routes that bypass traditional transit states.
OECD Asia
In the IEO2006 reference case, Japan has the lowest growth rate for natural
gas consumption among the OECD countries outside North America (Figure
43), mainly because its population declines and its economic growth is
relatively slow. Even with an average annual growth rate in consumption
of only 0.8 percent, however, natural gas still is the second fastest growing
primary energy source in Japan, behind nuclear power.
Total natural gas consumption in South Korea grows at an average annual
rate of 1.7 percent from 2003 to 2030. In 2003, the residential sector
was the countrys predominant consumer of natural gas, accounting for 39
percent of the total, with the electric power sector a close second at
33 percent of total natural gas use. In the projections, natural gas use
in South Koreas industrial sector increases on average by 4.9 percent
per year from 2003 to 2030, compared with average annual growth of 0.7
percent in the residential sector. By 2020, natural gas consumption in
the countrys industrial sector surpasses that in its residential sector;
and in 2030, industrial natural gas use accounts for more than 45 percent
of all the natural gas consumed in South Korea.
In Australia and New Zealand, the industrial sector currently is the predominant
user of natural gas, and it accounts for more than one-half of all natural
gas consumption in the region throughout the projection period. Natural
gas is the fastest growing fuel in Australia and New Zealand in the reference
case; however, with the regions abundance of coal reserves, and with
its natural gas reserves located far from demand centers, its natural gas
consumption in 2030 on a Btu basis is less than one-half of its coal consumption.
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia
The non-OECD Europe and Eurasia region is more reliant on natural gas than
any other region in the world. Russia is second only to the United States
in total natural gas consumption, and it is the only country in the world
where natural gas accounts for more than one-half of total primary energy
consumption. In 2003, Russia consumed 15.3 trillion cubic feet of natural
gas. The other countries of non-OECD Europe and Eurasia met 44 percent
of their combined total energy needs with natural gas in 2003.
Growth in natural gas demand in non-OECD Europe and Eurasia remains strong
throughout the projection period, with an average annual growth rate of
2.0 percent from 2003 to 2030. Natural gas consumption in both the electric
power and industrial sectors increases by around 8 trillion cubic feet
from 2003 to 2030 (Figure 44). Natural gas use in the electric power sector
grows slightly faster, at 2.4 percent per year, from 8.4 trillion cubic
feet in 2003 to 16.1 trillion cubic feet in 2030. Industrial natural gas
consumption in the region grows by an average of 2.1 percent per year,
from 11.0 trillion cubic feet in 2003 to 19.1 trillion cubic feet in 2030.
Other Non-OECD
In the rest of the non-OECD countries, significant growth in natural gas
use is projected from 2003 to 2030, as strong economic growth and available
resources encourage the development of natural gas infrastructure to support
demand. In the other non-OECD countries (excluding non-OECD Europe and
Eurasia), natural gas demand triples in the IEO2006 reference case, from
21.7 trillion cubic feet in 2003 to 67.3 trillion cubic feet in 2030.
Non-OECD Asia accounts for much of the growth in natural gas demand projected
for the non-OECD region. Led by demand in China and India, natural gas
consumption in non-OECD Asia expands by 5.1 percent per year on average
from 2003 to 2030. In both China and India, natural gas is currently a
minor fuel in the overall energy mix, representing only 3 percent and 7
percent, respectively, of total primary energy consumption in 2003; however,
both countries are rapidly expanding infrastructure to facilitate natural
gas consumption, as well as natural gas imports. In the reference case,
natural gas consumption grows at an average annual rate of 6.8 percent
in China and 5.9 percent in India.
Both China and India have limited natural gas reserves and are projected
to rely on imports to meet more than 40 percent of natural gas demand in
2030 (Figure 45). Both countries have been discussing possible import pipelines,
but none is imminent. China and India have also been pursuing LNG imports.
China has two regasification terminals under construction and a number
of others approved or proposed (see discussion on "Liquefied Natural Gas: Market Developments in China"). India has two terminals
operating and several more proposed. The supply contracts for Chinas Guandong
and Fujian terminals, as well as Indias Dahej terminal, were signed several
years ago at historically favorable terms and prices; however, both countries
are finding it difficult to secure additional long-term LNG supplies for
any of their proposed regasification terminals at prices that local natural
gas consumers would find acceptable [4].
Natural gas use in the Middle East more than doubles between 2003 and 2030
(Figure 46). Oil-exporting countries in the region have deliberately sought
to expand domestic natural gas use in order to make more oil available
for export. In addition, natural-gas-rich countries in the region are developing
projects to monetize their natural gas resources, in particular through
LNG and, more recently, gas-to-liquids (GTL) projects, which have become
an active area of interest (see discussion on "Current Developments in Gas-to-Liquids"). As a result, the importance
of natural gas as a source of supply for domestic energy demand in the
Middle East grows over the projection period, with its share of regional
energy use increasing from 42 percent in 2003 to 54 percent in 2030 while
the oil share declines from 55 percent to 42 percent over the same period.
In Africa, natural gas consumption increases by an average of 4.4 percent
per year over the projection period, making it the most rapidly growing
primary energy source in the region. In comparison, Africas oil demand
increases by only 2.3 percent per year and its coal demand by only 1.7
percent per year. The incremental growth in Africas natural gas demand
occurs mostly in the industrial and electric power sectors. Despite continuing
instability in some countries of the region, the investment climate in
Africa remains fairly attractive, with massive investments planned, mostly
in West Africa.
In Central and South America, natural gas is the fastest growing fuel source,
with demand increasing on average by 3.9 percent per year, from 3.8 trillion
cubic feet in 2003 to 10.8 trillion cubic feet in 2030 (Figure 47). By
2010, natural gas overtakes oil as the second most prevalent fuel for electricity
generation in the region, with renewablesparticularly, hydropowerretaining
their
dominant share in the sector throughout the projection period.
South Americas southern cone area is already crisscrossed by pipelines
linking Bolivia, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay. In addition, a
number of new pipelines are under discussion, which would link Peru with
Ecuador and Chile, Venezuela with Colombia and Brazil, and Colombia with
Panama [5]. The new lines could later be linked with each other and with
existing pipelines to create a South American natural gas gridan idea
that is being promoted by Venezuela. Even some of the more modest proposed
pipelines, however, face substantial political hurdles.
Notes and Sources
References |