International Energy Outlook 2004
Preface
This report presents international energy projections through 2025,
prepared by the Energy Information Administration, including outlooks
for major energy fuels and issues related to electricity and the environment.
The International Energy Outlook 2004 (IEO2004) presents an assessment by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2025. U.S. projections appearing in IEO2004 are consistent with those published in EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2004 (AEO2004), which was prepared using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). IEO2004 is provided as a service to energy managers and analysts, both in government and in the private sector. The projections are used by international agencies, Federal and State governments, trade associations, and other planners and decisionmakers. They are published pursuant to the Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-91), Section 205(c). The IEO2004 projections are based on U.S. and foreign government laws in effect on October 1, 2003.
The report begins with a review of world trends in energy demand and the macroeconomic assumptions used as a major driver in deriving the projections that appear in the IEO2004. The historical time frame begins with data from 1970 and extends to 2001, providing readers with a 31-year historical view of energy demand. The IEO2004 projections extend to 2025, giving readers a 24-year forecast period. New to this report is a discussion on regional end-use consumption issues in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors.
High economic growth and low economic growth cases were developed to depict a set of alternative growth paths for the energy forecast. The two cases consider alternative growth paths for regional gross domestic product (GDP). The resulting projections and the uncertainty associated with making international energy projections in general are discussed in the first chapter of the report. The status of environmental indicators, including global carbon emissions, is reviewed.
The next part of the report is organized by energy source. Regional consumption projections for oil, natural gas, and coal are presented in the three fuel chapters, along with a review of the current status of each fuel on a worldwide basis. A chapter on electricity markets follows, with a review of trends for nuclear power and hydroelectricity and other marketed renewable energy resources. The report ends with a discussion of energy and environmental issues, with particular attention to the outlook for global carbon dioxide emissions.
Appendix A contains summary tables of the IEO2004 reference case projections for world energy consumption, GDP, energy consumption by fuel, electricity consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear generating capacity, energy consumption measured in oil-equivalent units, and regional population growth. The reference case projections of total foreign energy consumption and consumption of oil, natural gas, coal, and renewable energy were prepared using EIA’s System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (SAGE), as were projections of net electricity consumption, energy consumed by fuel for the purpose of electricity generation, and carbon dioxide emissions. In addition, the NEMS Coal Export Submodule (CES) was used to derive flows in international coal trade, presented in the coal chapter. Nuclear capacity projections for the reference case were based on analysts’ knowledge of the nuclear programs in different countries.
Appendixes B and C present projections for the high and low economic growth cases, respectively. Appendix D contains summary tables of projections for world oil production capacity and oil production in the reference case and two alternative cases: high oil price and low oil price. The projections were derived from SAGE and from the U.S. Geological Survey. Appendix E contains summary tables of projections for nuclear capacity in three nuclear growth cases. Appendix F includes a set of comparisons of alternative forecasts with the IEO2004 projections, as well as comparisons of historical IEO forecasts with actual historical data. Comparisons of the IEO2004 and last year’s forecast are also presented in Appendix F. Appendix G describes the SAGE model.
 |
The six basic country groupings used in this report (Figure 1) are defined as follows:
- Industrialized Countries (the industrialized countries contain 15 percent of the 2004 world population): North America—United States, Canada, and Mexico; Western Europe—Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom; Industrialized Asia—Japan, Australia, and New Zealand.
- Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union (EE/FSU) (6 percent of the 2004 world population): Eastern Europe—Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Yugoslavia; Former Soviet Union—Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan.
- Developing Asia (54 percent of the 2004 world population): Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei, Cambodia (Kampuchea), China, Fiji, French Polynesia, Guam, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Kiribati, Laos, Malaysia, Macau, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar (Burma), Nauru, Nepal, New Caledonia, Niue, North Korea, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Samoa, Singapore, Solomon Islands, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Tonga, Vanuatu, and Vietnam.
- Middle East (4 percent of the 2004 world population): Bahrain, Cyprus, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.
- Africa (14 percent of the 2004 world population): Algeria, Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo (Brazzaville), Congo (Kinshasa), Djibouti, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mauritius, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Reunion, Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Africa, St. Helena, Sudan, Swaziland, Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, Western Sahara, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.
- Central and South America (7 percent of the 2004 world population): Antarctica, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Aruba, Bahama Islands, Barbados, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Falkland Islands, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Martinique, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Nicaragua, Panama Republic, Paraguay, Peru, Puerto Rico, St. Kitts-Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent/Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Turks and Caicos Islands, Uruguay, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Venezuela.
In addition, the following commonly used country groupings are referenced in this report:
- Annex I Countries (countries participating in the Kyoto Climate Change Protocol on Greenhouse Gas Emissions): Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, European Community, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Monaco, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom.1
- European Union (EU): Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.
- G8: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, United Kingdom, and the United States.
- North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) Member Countries: Canada, Mexico, and the United States.
- Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD): Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
- Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC): Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela.
- Pacific Rim Developing Countries: Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand.
- Persian Gulf: Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Objectives of the IEO2004 Projections The projections in IEO2004 are not statements of what will happen, but what might happen given the specific assumptions and methodologies used. These projections provide an objective, policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze international energy markets. As a policy-neutral data and analysis organization, EIA does not propose, advocate, or speculate on future legislative and regulatory changes. The projections are based on U.S. and foreign government laws effective as of October 1, 2003. Assuming fixed laws, even knowing that changes will occur, will naturally result in projections that differ from the final data. Models are abstractions of energy production and consumption activities, regulatory activities, and producer and consumer behavior. The forecasts are highly dependent on the data, analytical methodologies, model structures, and specific assumptions used in their development. Trends depicted in the analysis are indicative of tendencies in the real world rather than representations of specific real-world outcomes. Even where trends are stable and well understood, the projections are subject to uncertainty. Many events that shape energy markets are random and cannot be anticipated, and assumptions concerning future technology characteristics, demographics, and resource availability cannot be known with certainty. |
Released: April 2004