Energy Intensity 

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Energy intensity, measured as energy use (in thousand Btu) per dollar of GDP (in 2000 dollars), is projected to decline at an average annual rate of 1.6 percent from 2006 to 2030 in the AEO2008 reference case (Figure 7). Although energy use generally increases as the economy grows, continuing improvement in the energy efficiency of the U.S. economy and a shift to less energy-intensive activities are projected to keep the rate of energy consumption growth lower than the rate of GDP growth. 

Since 1992, the energy intensity of the U.S. economy has declined on average by 2.0 percent per year, in part because the share of industrial shipments accounted for by the energy-intensive industries has fallen from 30 percent in 1992 to 21 percent in 2006. In the AEO2008 reference case, the energy-intensive industries’ share of total industrial shipments continues to decline, although at a slower rate, to 18 percent in 2030. 

Population is a key determinant of energy consumption, influencing demand for travel, housing, consumer goods, and services. Since 1990, population has increased by about 20 percent and energy consumption by a comparable 18 percent in the United States, with annual variations in energy use per capita resulting from variations in weather and economic factors. The age, income, and geographic distribution of population also affects energy consumption growth. The aging of the population, a gradual shift from the North to the South, and rising per-capita income will influence future trends. Overall, population in the reference case increases by 22 percent from 2006 to 2030. Over the same period, energy consumption increases by 24 percent. The result is an increase in energy consumption per capita at an annual rate of 0.1 percent per year from 2006 to 2030—slightly slower than in the AEO2007 reference case. 

Recently, as energy prices have risen, the potential for more energy conservation has received increased attention. Although some additional energy conservation is induced by higher energy prices in the AEO2008 reference case, no policy-induced conservation measures are assumed beyond those in existing legislation and regulation, nor does the reference case assume behavioral changes beyond those observed in the past.