Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation

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Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation

Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations

Variable	AEO82 to AEO98	AEO82 to AEO99	AEO82 to AEO2000	AEO82 to AEO2001	AEO82 to AEO2002	AEO82 to AEO2003
Average Absolute Percent Error
Consumption
Total Energy Consumption	1.7	1.7	1.8	1.9	1.9	2.1
Total Petroleum Consumption	2.9	2.8	2.9	3.0	2.9	2.9
Total Natural Gas Consumption	5.7	5.6	5.6	5.5	5.5	6.5
Total Coal Consumption	3.0	3.2	3.3	3.5	3.6	3.7
Total Electricity Sales	1.7	1.8	1.9	2.4	2.5	2.4

Production
Crude Oil Production	4.3	4.5	4.5	4.5	4.5	4.7
Natural Gas Production	4.8	4.7	4.6	4.6	4.4	4.4
Coal Production	3.6	3.6	3.5	3.7	3.6	3.8

Imports and Exports
Net Petroleum Imports	9.5	8.8	8.4	7.9	7.4	7.5
Net Natural Gas Imports	16.7	16.0	15.9	15.8	15.8	15.4

Prices, Economic, and Environmental Variables
World Oil Prices	51.3	56.7	55.7	55.4	49.9	48.9
Natural Gas Wellhead Prices	72.1	70.2	68.2	66.3	61.0	57.3
Coal Prices to Electric Generating Plants	35.3	35.9	36.6	39.6	36.4	35.7*
Average Electricity Prices	11.0	11.1	11.8	14.0	11.4	11.3
Gross Domestic Product**	5.5	5.6	5.7	5.8	5.7	5.5
Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions	N/A	N/A	1.8	2.0	2.1	2.6
Energy Intensity**	5.6	5.7	5.8	6.1	6.0	5.9
AEO - Annual Energy Outlook Source: Statistics in Table 1 are a summary of the calculations in Tables 2 through 18. The data in Tables 2 through 18 are based on the 1982 through 2003 AEO forecasts and historical data taken from the Annual Energy Review 2002 (October 2003) and Monthly Energy Review (September 2003). Note: Projections of carbon dioxide emissions began in AEO93 and were first evaluated in 2000. Evaluation of energy intensity projections began in 2003. Coal prices to electric generating plants are not published in the Annual Energy Review. The projection comparisons for 2003 use the Monthly Energy Review* totals for 2002. Beginning in AEO2003, EIA electric generating forecasts incorporated combined heat and power (CHP) electricity generation in electricity generating plants. Prior to AEO2003, coal price forecasts reflected data collected, estimated, and reported to electric utilities and excluded CHP power generation. AER/MER 2001 publications reflect these reporting changes. **In July 2004, errata were issued for the correction of Gross Domestic Product and Energy Intensity errors.

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