Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for AEO Forecast
Evaluation, 1996 to 2002
| Average Absolute Percent Error | |||||||
| Variable | AEO82 to AEO97 |
AEO82 to AEO98 |
AEO82 to AEO99 |
AEO82 to AEO2000 |
AEO82 to AEO2001 |
AEO82 to AEO2002 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumption | |||||||
| Total Energy Consumption |
1.6
|
1.7
|
1.7
|
1.8
|
1.9
|
1.9
|
|
| Total Petroleum Consumption |
2.8
|
2.9
|
2.8
|
2.9
|
3.0
|
2.9
|
|
| Total Natural Gas Consumption |
5.8
|
5.7
|
5.6
|
5.6
|
5.5
|
5.5
|
|
| Total Coal Consumption |
2.7
|
3.0
|
3.2
|
3.3
|
3.5
|
3.6
|
|
| Total Electricity Sales |
1.6
|
1.7
|
1.8
|
1.9
|
2.4
|
2.5
|
|
| Production | |||||||
| Crude Oil Production |
4.2
|
4.3
|
4.5
|
4.5
|
4.5
|
4.5
|
|
| Natural Gas Production |
5.0
|
4.8
|
4.7
|
4.6
|
4.6
|
4.4
|
|
| Coal Production |
3.7
|
3.6
|
3.6
|
3.5
|
3.7
|
3.6
|
|
| Imports and Exports | |||||||
| Net Petroleum Imports |
10.1
|
9.5
|
8.8
|
8.4
|
7.9
|
7.4
|
|
| Net Natural Gas Imports |
17.4
|
16.7
|
16.0
|
15.9
|
15.8
|
15.8
|
|
| Net Coal Exports |
22.1
|
22.8
|
24.5
|
31.9
|
39.1
|
53.3
|
|
| Prices, Economic, and Environmental Variables | |||||||
| World Oil Prices |
53.1
|
51.3
|
56.7
|
55.7
|
55.4
|
49.4
|
|
| Natural Gas Wellhead Prices |
76.0
|
72.1
|
70.2
|
68.2
|
66.3
|
61.0
|
|
| Coal Prices to Electric Utilities |
34.8
|
35.3
|
35.9
|
36.6
|
39.6
|
36.4
|
|
| Average Electricity Prices |
11.0
|
11.0
|
11.1
|
11.8
|
14.0
|
11.4
|
|
| Gross Domestic Product |
5.0
|
5.0
|
5.0
|
5.7
|
5.9
|
6.4
|
|
| Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions |
1.8
|
2.0
|
2.1
|
||||
| AEO
= Annual Energy Outlook. Source: Statistics in Table 1 are a summary of the calculations in Tables 2 through 18. The data in Tables 2 through 18 are based on the 1982 through 2002 AEO forecasts and historical data taken from the 2000 Annual Energy Review (August 2001) and Monthly Energy Review (July 2002). Note: Projections of carbon dioxide emissions began in AEO93 and were first evaluated in year 2000. |
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