Table 2. Total Energy Consumption: AEO Forecasts, Actual Values, and Absolute 
and Percent Errors, 1985-1999

Publication 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Average
 Absolute Error

(Quadrillion Btu)

AEO82 79.1 79.6 79.9 80.8 82.0 83.3                   1.8
AEO83 78.0 79.5 81.0 82.4 83.8 84.6         89.5         1.2
AEO84 78.5 79.4 81.2 83.1 85.0 86.4         93.5         1.5
AEO85 77.6 78.5 79.8 81.2 82.6 83.3 84.2 85.2 85.9 86.7 87.7         1.3
AEO86   77.0 78.8 79.8 80.6 81.5 82.9 84.0 84.8 85.7 86.5 87.9 88.4 87.8 88.7 3.6
AEO87     78.9 80.0 81.9 82.8 83.9 85.3 86.4 87.5 88.4         1.5
AEO89       82.2 83.7 84.5 85.4 86.4 87.3 88.2 89.2 90.8 91.4 90.9 91.7 1.8
AEO90         84.2 85.4         91.9         0.9
AEO91           84.4 85.0 86.0 87.0 87.9 89.0 90.4 91.8 93.1 94.3 1.5
AEO92             84.7 87.0 88.0 89.2 90.5 91.4 92.4 93.4 94.5 1.2
AEO93               87.0 88.3 89.8 91.4 92.7 94.0 95.3 96.3 0.8
AEO94                 88.0 89.5 90.7 91.7 92.7 93.6 94.6 1.1
AEO95                   89.2 90.0 90.6 91.9 93.0 93.8 1.8
AEO96                     90.6 91.3 92.5 93.5 94.3 1.6
AEO97                       92.6 93.6 95.1 96.6 0.6
AEO98                         94.7 96.7 98.6 1.5
AEO99                           94.6 97.0 0.2
AEO00                             96.4 0.2
                                 
Actual Value 76.8 77.1 79.6 83.1 84.6 84.2 84.1 85.5 87.3 89.2 90.9 93.9 94.3 94.6 96.6  
                                 
Average Absolute Error 1.5 1.8 0.8 1.7 1.7 1.1 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.6 2.9 2.0 1.8 2.3 1.6

(Percent Error)

AEO82 3.0 3.3 0.3 -2.7 -3.1 -1.1                   2.2
AEO83 1.5 3.2 1.7 -0.8 -0.9 0.5         -1.6         1.5
AEO84 2.2 3.0 2.0 0.0 0.5 2.6         2.8         1.9
AEO85 1.0 1.9 0.2 -2.3 -2.4 -1.1 0.2 -0.4 -1.6 -2.8 -3.6         1.6
AEO86   -0.1 -1.0 -3.9 -4.7 -3.2 -1.4 -1.8 -2.9 -4.0 -4.9 -6.4 -6.3 -7.2 -8.2 4.0
AEO87   -0.9 -3.7 -3.2 -1.7 -0.2 -0.2 -1.0 -1.9 -2.8         1.7
AEO89   -1.0 -1.1 0.4 1.6 1.0 -0.0 -1.2 -1.9 -3.3 -3.1 -3.9 -5.1 2.0
AEO90   -0.5 1.4         1.1         1.0
AEO91   0.2 1.1 0.6 -0.4 -1.5 -2.1 -3.7 -2.7 -1.6 -2.4 1.6
AEO92   0.8 1.8 0.7 -0.1 -0.5 -2.6 -2.0 -1.2 -2.2 1.3
AEO93   1.8 1.1 0.7 0.5 -1.3 -0.3 0.7 -0.3 0.8
AEO94   0.8 0.3 -0.2 -2.3 -1.7 -1.0 -2.1 1.2
AEO95   -0.0 -1.1 -3.6 -2.6 -1.7 -2.9 2.0
AEO96   -0.4 -2.8 -1.9 -1.2 -2.4 1.7
AEO97   -1.4 -0.8 0.6 -0.0 0.7
AEO98   0.4 2.3 2.1 1.6
AEO99   0.1 0.4 0.2
AEO00   -0.2 0.2
 
Average Absolute Percent Error 1.9 2.3 1.0 2.1 2.0 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.8 3.0 2.2 1.9 2.4 1.8
AEO = Annual Energy Outlook.
Btu = British thermal unit.
Note: Includes nonelectric renewables.
Sources: Actual Values: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review 1999, DOE/EIA-0384(99) (Washington, DC, July 2000). Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook, DOE/EIA-0383(82-2000) (Washington, DC, April 1983 - December 1999).

Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption: AEO Forecasts, Actual Values, and Absolute 
and Percent Errors, 1985-1999

Publication 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Average
 Absolute Error

(Million Barrels per Day)

AEO82 18.00 17.89 17.55 17.24 16.98 16.99                   0.86
AEO83 15.82 16.13 16.37 16.50 16.56 16.63         17.37         0.40
AEO84 15.77 15.76 16.01 16.27 16.48 16.74         18.00         0.52
AEO85 15.72 15.74 15.97 16.01 16.06 16.08 16.18 16.23 16.32 16.36 16.53         0.86
AEO86   16.07 16.29 16.05 16.07 16.15 16.31 16.37 16.42 16.44 16.46 16.50 16.64 16.80 17.21 1.17
AEO87     16.52 16.66 16.96 17.06 17.29 17.56 17.73 17.76 17.72         0.32
AEO89       17.01 17.20 17.44 17.57 17.72 17.76 17.78 17.82 18.05 18.12 18.19 18.40 0.46
AEO90         17.24 17.41         18.21         0.33
AEO91           16.95 16.65 16.83 17.01 17.17 17.34 17.53 17.83 18.09 18.33 0.49
AEO92             16.74 17.07 17.37 17.59 17.80 17.86 17.99 18.14 18.26 0.38
AEO93               17.07 17.45 17.79 18.15 18.26 18.60 18.88 19.07 0.15
AEO94                 17.67 17.99 18.20 18.42 18.66 18.85 19.06 0.25
AEO95                   17.53 17.93 17.96 18.29 18.48 18.69 0.37
AEO96                     17.78 17.88 18.10 18.38 18.58 0.47
AEO97                       18.18 18.34 18.70 19.05 0.24
AEO98                         18.89 18.92 19.36 0.10
AEO99                           18.86 19.2 0.13
AEO00                             19.33 0.06
                                 
Actual Value 15.73 16.28 16.67 17.28 17.33 16.99 16.71 17.03 17.24 17.72 17.72 18.31 18.62 18.92 19.39  
                                 
Average Absolute Error 0.60 0.61 0.51 0.75 0.64 0.37 0.41 0.42 0.47 0.44 0.41 0.49 0.54 0.53 0.68 0.52

(Percent Error)

AEO82 14.4 9.9 5.3 -0.2 -2.0 0.0                   5.3
AEO83 0.6 -0.9 -1.8 -4.5 -4.4 -2.1         -2.0         2.3
AEO84 0.3 -3.2 -4.0 -5.8 -4.9 -1.5         1.6         3.0
AEO85 -0.1 -3.3 -4.2 -7.3 -7.3 -5.4 -3.2 -4.7 -5.3 -7.7 -6.7         5.0
AEO86   -1.3 -2.3 -7.1 -7.3 -4.9 -2.4 -3.9 -4.8 -7.2 -7.1 -9.9 -10.6 -11.2 -11.2 6.5
AEO87     -0.9 -3.6 -2.1 0.4 3.5 3.1 2.8 0.2 0.0         1.9
AEO89       -1.6 -0.8 2.6 5.1 4.1 3.0 0.3 0.6 -1.4 -2.7 -3.9 -5.1 2.6
AEO90         -0.5 2.5         2.8         1.9
AEO91           -0.2 -0.4 -1.2 -1.3 -3.1 -2.1 -4.3 -4.2 -4.4 -5.5 2.7
AEO92             0.2 0.2 0.8 -0.7 0.5 -2.5 -3.4 -4.1 -5.8 2.0
AEO93               0.2 1.2 0.4 2.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -1.7 0.8
AEO94                 2.5 1.5 2.7 0.6 0.2 -0.4 -1.7 1.4
AEO95                   -1.1 1.2 -1.9 -1.8 -2.3 -3.6 2.0
AEO96                     0.3 -2.3 -2.8 -2.9 -4.2 2.5
AEO97                       -0.7 -1.5 -1.2 -1.8 1.3
AEO98                         1.5 0.0 -0.2 0.5
AEO99                           -0.3 -1.0 0.6
AEO00                             -0.3 0.3
                                 
Average Absolute Percent Error 3.8 3.7 3.1 4.3 3.7 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.7 2.9 2.8 3.5 2.9
AEO = Annual Energy Outlook.
Sources: Actual Values: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review 1999, DOE/EIA-0384(99) (Washington, DC, July 2000). Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook, DOE/EIA-0383(82-2000) (Washington, DC, April 1983 - December 1999).

 Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption: AEO Forecasts, Actual Values, and Absolute 
and Percent Errors, 1985-1999

Publication 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Average

Absolute Error

(Trillion Cubic Feet)

AEO82 15.93 15.72 15.72 16.08 16.59 17.08                   1.52
AEO83 17.75 17.63 17.57 17.75 17.76 17.77         16.95         1.31
AEO84 18.22 18.07 18.33 18.61 18.73 18.76         18.75         1.06
AEO85 17.79 17.80 17.89 18.30 18.58 18.71 18.79 18.88 18.82 18.82 18.81         0.94
AEO86   16.52 16.83 17.35 17.27 17.50 17.77 17.77 17.90 18.01 18.04 18.03 18.26 18.34 18.04 2.12
AEO87     16.85 16.93 17.24 17.27 17.34 17.43 17.66 18.02 18.31         1.87
AEO89       17.75 17.95 17.94 18.08 18.10 18.34 18.68 18.94 19.17 19.55 19.86 19.98 1.58
AEO90         18.34 18.66         20.69         0.47
AEO91           18.53 19.21 19.34 19.56 19.76 20.01 20.21 20.66 20.93 21.23 0.74
AEO92