Market Trends - Coal Production

170.  Although cellulosic ethanol technology currently is not a commercially proven process, researchers and developers are vigorously pursuing cost reduction goals in the technology and production processes that would substantially exceed those considered in the AEO2007 “lower cost” cases. These even lower production cost goals may be possible, but it is uncertain at present whether, and when, the technology advances necessary to achieve the lowest of the production cost goals will occur. Nevertheless, even the relatively modest reductions in production costs assumed in the AEO2007 “lower cost” cases can be seen to result in a significant increase in cellulosic ethanol production.