Case name

Description

Integration mode

Reference in text

Reference in Appendix G

Reference

Baseline economic growth, world oil price, and technology assumptions

Fully integrated

—

—

Low Economic Growth

Gross domestic product grows at an average annual rate of 2.5 percent, compared to the reference case growth of 3.0 percent.

Fully integrated

p. 51

—

High Economic Growth

Gross domestic product grows at an average annual rate of 3.5 percent, compared to the reference case growth of 3.0 percent.

Fully integrated

p. 51

—

Low World Oil Price

World oil prices are $19.04 per barrel in 2025, compared to $26.57 per barrel in the reference case.

Fully integrated

p. 52

—

High World Oil Price

World oil prices are $33.05 per barrel in 2025, compared to $26.57 per barrel in the reference case.

Fully integrated

p. 52

—

Residential:
2003 Technology

Future equipment purchases based on equipment available in 2003. Existing building shell efficiencies fixed at 2003 levels.

With commercial

p. 63

p. 233

Residential:
High Technology

Earlier availability, lower costs, and higher efficiencies assumed for more advanced equipment. Heating shell efficiency increases by 12 percent from 1997 values by 2025.

With commercial

p. 63

p. 234

Residential:
Best Available Technology

Future equipment purchases and new building shells based on most efficient technologies available. Heating shell efficiency increases by 16 percent from 1997 values by 2025.

With commercial

p. 63

p. 234

Commercial:
2003 Technology

Future equipment purchases based on equipment available in 2003. Building shell efficiencies fixed at 2003 levels.

With residential

p. 64

p. 235

Commercial:
High Technology

Earlier availability, lower costs, and higher efficiencies assumed for more advanced equipment. Building shell efficiencies increase 50 percent faster than in the reference case.

With residential

p. 64

p. 235

Commercial:
Best Available Technology

Future equipment purchases based on most efficient technologies available. Building shell efficiencies increase 50 percent faster than in the reference case.

With residential

p. 64

p. 235

Industrial:
2003 Technology

Efficiency of plant and equipment fixed at 2003 levels.

Standalone

p. 65

p. 236

Electricity: Advanced Nuclear Cost

New nuclear capacity is assumed to have both lower capital costs than in the reference case.

Partially integrated

p. 71

p. 240

Electricity:
High Demand

Electricity demand increases at an annual rate of 2.5 percent, compared to 1.8 percent in the reference case.

Partially integrated

p. 71

p. 240

Electricity: Low
Fossil Technology

New advanced fossil generating technologies are assumed not to improve over time from 2003.

Partially integrated

p. 72

p. 240

Electricity: High
Fossil Technology

Costs and/or efficiencies for advanced fossil-fired generating technologies improve from reference case values.

Partially integrated

p. 72

p. 240

Renewables:
High Renewables

Lower costs and higher efficiencies for central-station renewable generating technologies and for distributed photovoltaics, approximating U.S. Department of Energy goals for 2025. Includes greater improvements in residential and commercial photovoltaic systems, more rapid improvement in recovery of industrial biomass byproducts, and more rapid improvement in cellulosic ethanol production technology.

Fully integrated

p. 74

p. 242

Oil and Gas:
Slow Technology

Cost, finding rate, and success rate parameters adjusted for 15-percent slower improvement than in the reference case.

Fully integrated

p. 79,
p. 81

p. 243

Oil and Gas:
Rapid Technology

Cost, finding rate, and success rate parameters adjusted for 15-percent more rapid improvement than in the reference case.

Fully integrated

p. 79,
p. 81

p. 243

Coal:
Low Mining Cost

Productivity increases at an annual rate of 3.1 percent, compared to the reference case growth of 1.6 percent. Real wages and real mine equipment costs decrease by 0.5 percent annually, compared to constant real wages and equipment costs in the reference case.

Fully integrated

p. 87

p. 247

Coal:
High Mining Cost

Productivity increases at an annual rate of 0.1 percent, compared to the reference case growth of 1.6 percent. Real wages and real mine equipment costs increase by 0.5 percent annually, compared to constant real wages and equipment costs in the reference case.

Fully integrated

p. 87

p. 247