Annual
Energy Outlook 2003 with Projections to 2025
Table 5. AEO2003 projections for lower 48 wellhead natural
gas prices and consumption,
Alaskan production, and Canadian, Mexican, and LNG imports in three cases
| Projection |
2010 |
2015 |
2020 |
2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower 48 average wellhead
price |
||||
| Low economic growth case |
3.17 |
3.26 |
3.58 |
3.83 |
| Reference case |
3.29 |
3.55 |
3.69 |
3.90 |
| High economic growth case |
3.59 |
3.71 |
3.63 |
4.50 |
| Total U.S. consumption (trillion cubic feet) |
||||
| Low economic growth case |
26.29 |
28.38 |
30.30 |
31.78 |
| Reference case |
27.06 |
29.50 |
32.14 |
34.93 |
| High economic growth case |
28.13 |
30.90 |
34.59 |
37.48 |
| Net Canadian imports (trillion cubic feet) |
||||
| Low economic growth case |
3.83 |
4.12 |
4.45 |
5.23 |
| Reference case |
4.05 |
4.42 |
5.08 |
5.31 |
| High economic growth case |
4.38 |
5.00 |
5.03 |
5.46 |
| Alaskan production (trillion cubic feet) |
||||
| Low economic growth case |
0.48 |
0.51 |
0.54 |
0.57 |
| Reference case |
0.48 |
0.51 |
0.55 |
2.64 |
| High economic growth case |
0.48 |
0.51 |
2.39 |
2.85 |
| Net LNG imports (trillion cubic feet) |
||||
| Low economic growth case |
0.99 |
1.01 |
1.11 |
1.45 |
| Reference case |
0.99 |
1.03 |
1.51 |
2.14 |
| High economic growth case |
0.99 |
1.27 |
2.08 |
2.84 |
| Net Mexican imports (trillion cubic feet) |
||||
| Low economic growth case |
-0.27 |
-0.24 |
-0.16 |
0.09 |
| Reference case |
-0.26 |
-0.19 |
0.07 |
0.30 |
| High economic growth case |
-0.23 |
0.07 |
0.47 |
0.78 |
| AEO2003
National Energy modeling System, runs LM2003.D110502C, AEO2003.D110502C,
and HM2003.D110502C. Notes: Canadian imports include all gas imported from Canada, including western Canadian, eastern Canadian, and the MacKenzie Delta. Alaskan production includes gas produced for consumption in Alaska plus 65 billion cubic feet per year of LNG exported to Japan. LNG imports do not include LNG from Baja California, Mexico, which is included in net imports from Mexico. |
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