Annual Energy Outlook 2003 with Projections to 2025

Table 24. Comparison of coal forecasts
(million short tons, except where noted)

Projection

2001

AEO2003

Other forecasts

Reference

Low
economic growth

High
economic growth

EVA

Hill & Associates

   

2015

Production

1,138

1,286

1,258

1,322

1,121

1,357

Consumption by sector

           

  Electricity generation

957

1,187

1,162

1,221

1,039

1,260

  Coking plants

26

22

22

22

24

18

  Industrial/other

67

73

71

76

58

62

    Total

1,050

1,282

1,254

1,319

1,120

1,339

Net coal exports

29

6

6

6

1

17

  Exports

49

29

29

29

34

NA

  Imports

20

22

22

22

34

NA

Minemouth price

           

  (2001 dollars per short ton)

17.59

14.67

14.54

14.76

15.73 a

16.73 b,c

  (2001 dollars per million Btu)

0.83

0.72

0.71

0.72

0.77 a

0.77 b,c

Average delivered price to electricity generators

           

  (2001 dollars per short ton)

25.06

23.16

22.78

23.62

NA

20.95 c

  (2001 dollars per million Btu)

1.25

1.15

1.13

1.17

NA

1.06 c

   

2020 d

Production

1,138

1,359

1,314

1,412

1,171

1,402

Consumption by sector

           

  Electricity generation

957

1,263

1,222

1,313

1,093

1,312

  Coking plants

26

20

20

20

23

15

  Industrial/other

67

74

71

78

57

59

    Total

1,050

1,358

1,313

1,411

1,172

1,387

Net coal exports

29

4

4

4

-1

16

  Exports

49

29

29

29

35

NA

  Imports

20

25

25

25

36

NA

Minemouth price

           

  (2001 dollars per short ton)

17.59

14.38

14.06

14.79

15.83 a

19.11 b,c

  (2001 dollars per million Btu)

0.83

0.71

0.69

0.72

0.78 a

0.88 b,c

Average delivered price to electricity generators

           

  (2001 dollars per short ton)

25.06

22.45

21.85

23.20

NA

22.20 c

  (2001 dollars per million Btu)

1.25

1.12

1.10

1.15

NA

1.11 c

   aThe average coal price is a weighted average of the projected spot market FOB mine price for all domestic coal.
    bThe minemouth price represents an average for domestic steam coal only. Exports and coking coal are not included in the average.
    cThe prices provided by Hill & Associates were converted from 2002 dollars to 2001 dollars in order to be consistent with AEO2003.
    dCoal projections for 2025 were not available from EVA and Hill & Associates. For AEO2003 projections, see Appendixes A and B.
    Btu = British thermal unit. NA = Not available.
    Sources: AEO2003: AEO2003 National Energy Modeling System, runs AEO2003.D110502C (reference case), LM2003.D110502C (low economic growth case), and HM2003.D110502C (high economic growth case). EVA: Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc., Energy Ventures Analysis Forecast—August 2002 (August 2002). Hill & Associates: Hill & Associates, Inc., The Outlook for U.S. Steam Coal: Long-Term Forecast to 2021 (May 2002).

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