Annual
Energy Outlook 2003 with Projections to 2025
Table 23. Comparison of petroleum forecasts
(million barrels per day, except where noted)
| Projection |
2001 |
AEO2003 |
Other forecasts |
|||
| Reference |
Low |
High |
GII |
DBAB |
||
| 2015 |
||||||
| World oil price (2001 dollars per barrel) |
22.01 |
24.72 |
19.04 |
32.95 |
23.69 a |
19.04 |
| Crude oil and NGL production |
7.67 |
7.66 |
7.48 |
8.08 |
7.87 |
7.80 |
| Crude oil |
5.80 |
5.25 |
5.09 |
5.61 |
5.51 b |
NA |
| Natural gas liquids |
1.87 |
2.41 |
2.39 |
2.46 |
2.36 |
NA |
| Total net imports |
10.90 |
16.20 |
16.79 |
15.15 |
15.44 |
15.19 |
| Crude oil |
9.31 |
12.36 |
12.79 |
11.91 |
11.10 |
NA |
| Petroleum products |
1.59 |
3.84 |
4.01 |
3.24 |
4.34 |
NA |
| Petroleum demand |
19.69 |
25.23 |
25.71 |
24.59 |
24.77 |
24.56 |
| Motor gasoline |
8.67 |
11.83 |
11.97 |
11.50 |
11.03 c |
10.96 |
| Jet fuel |
1.66 |
2.17 |
2.18 |
2.15 |
2.68 |
2.14 |
| Distillate fuel |
3.81 |
5.05 |
5.18 |
4.97 |
4.53 |
4.56 |
| Residual fuel |
0.97 |
0.63 |
0.75 |
0.56 |
0.67 |
0.89 |
| Kerosene |
0.07 |
0.06 |
0.06 |
0.05 |
0.07 |
NA |
| Liquefied petroleum gas |
2.05 |
2.66 |
2.69 |
2.59 |
2.75 |
NA |
| Other |
2.46 |
2.83 |
2.88 |
2.78 |
3.04 d |
NA |
| Import share of product supplied (percent) |
55.4 |
64.2 |
65.3 |
61.6 |
62.3 |
61.9 |
| 2020 |
||||||
| World oil price (2001 dollars per barrel) |
22.01 |
25.48 |
19.04 |
33.02 |
25.05 a |
19.04 |
| Crude oil and NGL production |
7.67 |
7.99 |
7.71 |
8.36 |
7.72 |
6.69 |
| Crude oil |
5.80 |
5.46 |
5.22 |
5.79 |
5.30 b |
NA |
| Natural gas liquids |
1.87 |
2.53 |
2.49 |
2.58 |
2.42 |
NA |
| Total net imports |
10.90 |
17.72 |
18.57 |
16.47 |
17.09 |
18.25 |
| Crude oil |
9.31 |
12.66 |
13.32 |
12.10 |
11.47 |
NA |
| Petroleum products |
1.59 |
5.06 |
5.25 |
4.37 |
5.62 |
NA |
| Petroleum demand |
19.69 |
27.13 |
27.77 |
26.28 |
26.31 |
26.58 |
| Motor gasoline |
8.67 |
12.78 |
13.00 |
12.27 |
11.65 c |
11.81 |
| Jet fuel |
1.66 |
2.46 |
2.47 |
2.42 |
3.12 |
2.34 |
| Distillate fuel |
3.81 |
5.40 |
5.57 |
5.30 |
4.77 |
4.91 |
| Residual fuel |
0.97 |
0.64 |
0.76 |
0.58 |
0.60 |
0.95 |
| Kerosene |
0.07 |
0.05 |
0.06 |
0.05 |
0.07 |
NA |
| Liquefied petroleum gas |
2.05 |
2.85 |
2.89 |
2.77 |
2.94 |
NA |
| Other |
2.46 |
2.95 |
3.03 |
2.88 |
3.16 d |
NA |
| Import share of product supplied (percent) |
55.4 |
65.3 |
66.9 |
62.7 |
65.0 |
68.7 |
| 2025 |
||||||
| World oil price (2001 dollars per barrel) |
22.01 |
26.57 |
19.04 |
33.05 |
NA |
18.94 |
| Crude oil and NGL production |
7.67 |
7.96 |
7.51 |
8.39 |
NA |
5.87 |
| Crude oil |
5.80 |
5.33 |
4.92 |
5.71 |
NA |
NA |
| Natural gas liquids |
1.87 |
2.63 |
2.59 |
2.68 |
NA |
NA |
| Total net imports |
10.90 |
19.79 |
21.12 |
18.19 |
NA |
21.18 |
| Crude oil |
9.31 |
13.06 |
14.05 |
12.53 |
NA |
NA |
| Petroleum products |
1.59 |
6.73 |
7.06 |
5.66 |
NA |
NA |
| Petroleum demand |
19.69 |
29.17 |
30.17 |
28.19 |
NA |
28.76 |
| Motor gasoline |
8.67 |
13.77 |
14.10 |
13.12 |
NA |
12.72 |
| Jet fuel |
1.66 |
2.74 |
2.75 |
2.70 |
NA |
2.56 |
| Distillate fuel |
3.81 |
5.87 |
6.23 |
5.75 |
NA |
5.29 |
| Residual fuel |
0.97 |
0.64 |
0.77 |
0.59 |
NA |
1.01 |
| Kerosene |
0.07 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
NA |
NA |
| Liquefied petroleum gas |
2.05 |
3.03 |
3.10 |
2.98 |
NA |
NA |
| Other |
2.46 |
3.07 |
3.17 |
3.01 |
NA |
NA |
| Import share of product supplied (percent) |
55.4 |
67.8 |
70.0 |
64.5 |
NA |
73.6 |
| NA
= Not available. Notes: aGII world oil price is imported refiner acquisition cost in 2000 dollars, converted to 2001 dollars using AEO2003 reference case chain-weighted price indexes. bGII crude oil production includes “other” domestic supply. cGII total for motor gasoline includes methanol. dGII “other” petroleum demand total includes naphthas, which are reported separately in GII’s forecast. Sources: AEO2003: AEO2003 National Energy Modeling System, runs AEO2003.D110502C (reference case), LW2003.D110502C (low world oil price case), and HW2003.D110502C (high world oil price case). GII: DRI-WEFA (now Global Insight, Inc.), Winter 2001-2002 U.S. Energy Outlook (May 2002). DBAB: Deutsche Banc Alex.Brown, “World Oil Supply and Demand Estimates,” e-mail from Adam Sieminski, September 20, 2002. |
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