Annual Energy Outlook 2003 with Projections to 2025

Table 22. Comparison of natural gas forecasts
(trillion cubic feet, except where noted)

Projection

2001

AEO2003

Other forecasts

 

Reference

Low
economic growth

High
economic growth

GII a

EEA b

PIRA

   

2015

Lower 48 wellhead price
(2001 dollars per thousand cubic feet)

4.12

3.55

3.26

3.71

3.14

3.81

NA

Dry gas production c

19.36

23.83

23.08

24.16

23.44

23.40

22.34

Net imports

3.64

5.27

4.89

6.33

6.21

6.40

6.35

Consumption

22.64

29.50

28.38

30.90

29.42

29.20

28.80

  Residential

4.81

5.69

5.60

5.78

5.94

6.00

5.25

  Commercial

3.25

3.89

3.84

3.95

3.90

4.00

3.68

  Industrial d

7.53

9.53

9.00

10.24

7.52 e

8.40 f

5.61 g

  Electricity generators h

5.26

8.01

7.63

8.51

9.63 i

8.60 j

12.17 k

  Other l

1.79

2.38

2.30

2.43

2.44

2.20

2.08

End-use prices
(2001 dollars per thousand cubic feet)

              

  Residential

9.96

7.90

7.57

8.07

7.33

7.33

NA

  Commercial

8.29

6.83

6.50

7.01

6.27

6.62

NA

  Industrial d

4.97

4.29

3.98

4.50

4.31 m

4.98

NA

  Electricity generators h

4.69

4.21

3.90

4.42

3.73

4.59

NA

   

2020 n

Lower 48 wellhead price
(2001 dollars per thousand cubic feet)

4.12

3.69

3.58

3.63

3.23

3.10

NA

Dry gas production c

19.36

25.07

24.48

26.60

24.31

24.50

NA

Net imports

3.64

6.66

5.40

7.58

6.73

7.80

NA

Consumption

22.64

32.14

30.30

34.59

30.79

31.90

NA

  Residential

4.81

5.96

5.76

6.14

6.31

6.40

NA

  Commercial

3.25

4.17

4.03

4.32

3.97

4.40

NA

  Industrial d

7.53

10.10

9.30

11.27

7.74 e

8.50 f

NA

  Electricity generators h

5.26

9.39

8.76

10.12

10.27 i

10.20 j

NA

  Other l

1.79

2.53

2.45

2.75

2.51

2.40

NA

End-use prices
(2001 dollars per thousand cubic feet)

              

  Residential

9.96

7.96

7.87

7.88

7.37

6.39

NA

  Commercial

8.29

6.94

6.82

6.88

6.32

5.71

NA

  Industrial d

4.97

4.44

4.29

4.43

4.38 m

4.24

NA

  Electricity generators h

4.69

4.38

4.23

4.38

3.93

3.86

NA

   aPreviously DRI-WEFA. A factor of 1.0236 was applied to convert prices in 2000 dollars to 2001 dollars.
    bThe baseline projection includes a cyclical price trend based on exploration and production cycles; therefore, forecast values for an isolated year may be misleading. EEA’s average wellhead price is $3.30 between 2010 and 2020.
    cDoes not include supplemental fuels.
    dIncludes consumption for combined heat and power; excludes consumption by nonutility generators.
    eExcludes natural gas used for cogeneration or other nonutility generation.
    fIncludes natural gas consumed in cogeneration.
    gExcludes gas demand for nonutility generation.
    hIncludes consumption of energy by electricity-only and combined heat and power (CHP) plants whose primary business is to sell electricity, or electricity and heat, to the public. Includes small power producers and exempt wholesale generators.
    iIncludes gas used in cogeneration and other nonutility generation.
    jIncludes independent power producers and excludes cogenerators.
    kEquals the sum of gas demand for nonutility generation (NUG) plus gas demand for utility generation.
    lIncludes lease, plant, and pipeline fuel and fuel consumed in natural gas vehicles.
    mOn system sales or system sales (i.e., does not include gas delivered for the account of others).
    nNatural gas projections for 2025 were not available from GII, EEA, and PIRA. For AEO2003 projections, see Appendixes A and B.
    NA = not available.
    Sources: 2001: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2001, DOE/EIA-0384(2001) (Washington, DC, November 2002). AEO2003: AEO2003 National Energy Modeling System, runs AEO2003.D110502C (reference case), LM2003.D110502C (low economic growth case), and HM2003.D110502C (high economic growth case). GII: DRI-WEFA (now Global Insight, Inc.), Winter 2001-2002 U.S. Energy Outlook (May 2002). EEA: Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., EEA’s Compass Service Base Case (October 2002). PIRA: PIRA Energy Group (October 2002).

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