Annual
Energy Outlook 2003 with Projections to 2025
Table 21. Comparison of electricity forecasts
(billion kilowatthours, except where noted)
| Projection |
2001 |
AEO2003 |
Other forecasts |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reference |
Low |
High |
GII |
EEA |
||
| 2015 |
||||||
| Average end-use price
|
7.3 |
6.5 |
6.2 |
6.7 |
5.5 |
NA |
| Residential |
8.6 |
7.7 |
7.4 |
8.1 |
6.7 |
NA |
| Commercial |
7.9 |
6.9 |
6.6 |
7.2 |
5.8 |
NA |
| Industrial |
4.8 |
4.4 |
4.1 |
4.5 |
4.0 |
NA |
| Net energy for load, including CHP |
3,770 |
5,024 |
4,881 |
5,208 |
5,269 |
5,158 |
| Coal |
1,904 |
2,391 |
2,331 |
2,468 |
2,546 |
2,320 |
| Oil |
125 |
53 |
50 |
53 |
118 |
124 |
| Natural gas a |
624 |
1,223 |
1,155 |
1,314 |
1,295 |
1,346 |
| Nuclear |
769 |
805 |
805 |
805 |
693 |
735 |
| Hydroelectric/other b |
301 |
469 |
463 |
478 |
420 |
366 |
| Nonutility sales to grid c |
27 |
56 |
52 |
62 |
164 |
229 |
| Net imports |
20 |
26 |
24 |
29 |
33 |
38 |
| Electricity sales |
3,414 |
4,481 |
4,357 |
4,642 |
4,583 |
4,405 |
| Residential |
1,201 |
1,539 |
1,518 |
1,557 |
1,613 |
1,557 |
| Commercial/other d |
1,219 |
1,671 |
1,644 |
1,698 |
1,599 |
1,584 |
| Industrial |
994 |
1,271 |
1,195 |
1,387 |
1,371 |
1,264 |
| Capability, including CHP (gigawatts) e |
851 |
1,051 |
1,022 |
1,091 |
1,161 |
1,001 |
| Coal |
315 |
333 |
327 |
342 |
388 |
331 |
| Oil and natural gas |
321 |
482 |
461 |
509 |
559 |
452 |
| Nuclear |
98 |
99 |
99 |
99 |
94 |
92 |
| Hydroelectric/other |
117 |
130 |
129 |
131 |
139 |
126 |
| 2020 f |
||||||
| Average end-use price
|
7.3 |
6.6 |
6.4 |
6.8 |
5.2 |
NA |
| Residential |
8.6 |
7.8 |
7.5 |
8.1 |
6.3 |
NA |
| Commercial |
7.9 |
7.2 |
6.9 |
7.3 |
5.5 |
NA |
| Industrial |
4.8 |
4.5 |
4.3 |
4.7 |
3.7 |
NA |
| Net energy for load, including CHP |
3,770 |
5,434 |
5,198 |
5,722 |
5,697 |
5,680 |
| Coal |
1,904 |
2,553 |
2,441 |
2,687 |
2,826 |
2,562 |
| Oil |
125 |
52 |
58 |
49 |
106 |
106 |
| Natural gas a |
624 |
1,452 |
1,341 |
1,585 |
1,492 |
1,585 |
| Nuclear |
769 |
807 |
807 |
807 |
657 |
739 |
| Hydroelectric/other b |
301 |
486 |
475 |
498 |
417 |
397 |
| Nonutility sales to grid c |
27 |
67 |
59 |
77 |
167 |
250 |
| Net imports |
20 |
17 |
17 |
17 |
31 |
40 |
| Electricity sales |
3,414 |
4,850 |
4,643 |
5,095 |
4,973 |
4,835 |
| Residential |
1,201 |
1,640 |
1,598 |
1,670 |
1,781 |
1,693 |
| Commercial/other d |
1,219 |
1,852 |
1,799 |
1,902 |
1,715 |
1,793 |
| Industrial |
994 |
1,358 |
1,246 |
1,523 |
1,477 |
1,349 |
| Capability, including CHP (gigawatts) e |
851 |
1,129 |
1,081 |
1,185 |
1,240 |
1,070 |
| Coal |
315 |
353 |
339 |
370 |
408 |
364 |
| Oil and natural gas |
321 |
532 |
504 |
565 |
624 |
467 |
| Nuclear |
98 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
88 |
92 |
| Hydroelectric/other |
117 |
133 |
131 |
135 |
139 |
148 |
| aIncludes
supplemental gaseous fuels. b”Other” includes conventional hydroelectric, pumped storage, geothermal, wood, wood waste, municipal waste, other biomass, solar and wind power, plus a small quantity of petroleum coke. cFor AEO2003, includes only net sales from combined heat and power plants. d”Other” includes sales of electricity to government, railways, and street lighting authorities. eEIA capacity is net summer capability, including combined heat and power plants. GII capacity is nameplate, excluding cogeneration plants. fElectric power projections for 2025 were not available from GII and EEA. For AEO2003 projections, see Appendixes A and B. CHP = combined heat and power. NA = not available. Sources: AEO2003: AEO2003 National Energy Modeling System, runs AEO2003.D110502C (reference case), LM2003.D110502C (low economic growth case), and HM2003.D110502C (high economic growth case). GII: DRI-WEFA (now Global Insight, Inc.), Winter 2001-2002 U.S. Energy Outlook (May 2002). EEA: Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., EEA’s Compass Service Base Case (October 2002). |
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