Supplement Tables
to the Annual Energy Outlook 2003
Table 54. Air Travel Energy Use
|
2001-
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2000
|
2001
|
2002
|
2003
|
2004
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
2014
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
2018
|
2019
|
2020
|
2021
|
2022
|
2023
|
2024
|
2025
|
2025
|
|
| Fuel Cost (1987 dollars per million Btu) |
5.1
|
4.4
|
4.2
|
4.5
|
4.1
|
4.0
|
3.9
|
3.9
|
4.0
|
4.0
|
4.0
|
4.1
|
4.1
|
4.2
|
4.2
|
4.3
|
4.3
|
4.4
|
4.4
|
4.5
|
4.5
|
4.6
|
4.7
|
4.7
|
4.7
|
4.8
|
0.3%
|
| Macro Variables (1996 dollars) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gross Domestic Product |
9191.4
|
9214.5
|
9439.7
|
9743.3
|
10074.5
|
10361.2
|
10666.6
|
11017.3
|
11407.9
|
11810.3
|
12258.4
|
12671.3
|
13081.8
|
13479.9
|
13892.9
|
14287.9
|
14680.7
|
15101.4
|
15540.1
|
16013.0
|
16450.0
|
16887.9
|
17362.6
|
17858.1
|
18388.7
|
18916.5
|
3.0%
|
| Disposable Income |
6630.3
|
6748.0
|
7046.8
|
7160.7
|
7248.8
|
7420.8
|
7625.9
|
7848.1
|
8094.0
|
8349.8
|
8637.2
|
8905.1
|
9181.4
|
9467.3
|
9778.5
|
10086.6
|
10394.5
|
10712.0
|
11043.2
|
11399.6
|
11713.2
|
12003.3
|
12318.1
|
12676.2
|
13061.4
|
13435.3
|
2.9%
|
| Real Merchandise Exports |
834.7
|
785.2
|
762.7
|
823.6
|
888.4
|
938.5
|
1018.7
|
1088.1
|
1171.9
|
1269.8
|
1372.8
|
1481.8
|
1595.2
|
1716.8
|
1845.5
|
1977.3
|
2115.7
|
2273.3
|
2452.6
|
2638.6
|
2827.0
|
3025.8
|
3243.9
|
3476.9
|
3719.1
|
3985.5
|
7.0%
|
| Yield (ticket price, 1996 dollars) 1/ |
13.5
|
12.2
|
13.1
|
13.1
|
12.7
|
12.5
|
12.3
|
12.1
|
12.0
|
11.8
|
11.9
|
11.9
|
11.8
|
11.8
|
11.7
|
11.7
|
11.7
|
11.8
|
11.9
|
12.1
|
12.2
|
12.4
|
12.7
|
13.0
|
13.4
|
13.8
|
0.5%
|
| Travel Demand (billion miles) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Revenue Passenger Miles Domestic |
509.4
|
481.4
|
489.6
|
478.7
|
479.2
|
494.2
|
511.0
|
528.7
|
548.9
|
569.8
|
587.6
|
605.7
|
625.0
|
644.1
|
664.2
|
683.1
|
702.5
|
720.0
|
737.5
|
752.6
|
767.2
|
779.9
|
791.8
|
802.0
|
811.5
|
819.5
|
2.2%
|
| Personal |
278.7
|
248.9
|
272.1
|
260.7
|
259.9
|
268.1
|
277.6
|
287.2
|
298.2
|
309.7
|
319.3
|
329.1
|
339.8
|
350.5
|
361.9
|
372.9
|
384.5
|
394.9
|
405.2
|
414.1
|
422.6
|
429.9
|
436.6
|
442.3
|
447.7
|
452.2
|
2.5%
|
| Business |
230.8
|
232.5
|
217.6
|
218.0
|
219.2
|
226.1
|
233.4
|
241.6
|
250.7
|
260.1
|
268.2
|
276.6
|
285.2
|
293.6
|
302.2
|
310.2
|
318.0
|
325.2
|
332.3
|
338.6
|
344.6
|
350.1
|
355.2
|
359.7
|
363.8
|
367.3
|
1.9%
|
| Load Factor, Domestic 2/ |
0.71
|
0.70
|
0.70
|
0.70
|
0.71
|
0.71
|
0.71
|
0.71
|
0.72
|
0.72
|
0.72
|
0.73
|
0.73
|
0.73
|
0.73
|
0.74
|
0.74
|
0.74
|
0.74
|
0.75
|
0.75
|
0.75
|
0.75
|
0.75
|
0.76
|
0.76
|
0.4%
|
| Revenue Passenger Miles, International |
190.3
|
176.5
|
192.1
|
190.6
|
191.2
|
197.4
|
204.3
|
211.8
|
220.1
|
228.7
|
236.1
|
243.7
|
251.8
|
259.9
|
268.4
|
276.4
|
284.3
|
291.5
|
298.6
|
304.8
|
310.7
|
315.9
|
320.7
|
324.8
|
328.7
|
331.9
|
2.7%
|
| Load Factor, International 2/ |
0.76
|
0.74
|
0.76
|
0.76
|
0.76
|
0.76
|
0.76
|
0.77
|
0.77
|
0.77
|
0.77
|
0.77
|
0.77
|
0.77
|
0.78
|
0.78
|
0.78
|
0.78
|
0.78
|
0.78
|
0.79
|
0.79
|
0.79
|
0.79
|
0.79
|
0.79
|
0.3%
|
| Revenue Ton Miles, Freight (billion) |
19.9
|
18.0
|
13.6
|
14.4
|
14.6
|
15.6
|
17.1
|
18.3
|
19.9
|
21.7
|
23.7
|
25.7
|
27.9
|
30.2
|
32.6
|
35.2
|
37.9
|
41.0
|
44.5
|
48.3
|
52.1
|
56.1
|
60.6
|
65.3
|
70.4
|
75.9
|
6.2%
|
| Seat Miles Demanded (billion) |
1167.8
|
1108.5
|
1085.7
|
1073.4
|
1074.0
|
1110.1
|
1154.9
|
1199.0
|
1249.8
|
1305.3
|
1355.4
|
1407.7
|
1462.5
|
1519.5
|
1577.9
|
1636.5
|
1695.2
|
1756.1
|
1819.3
|
1881.8
|
1942.3
|
2002.4
|
2064.0
|
2126.8
|
2189.6
|
2255.6
|
3.0%
|
| Narrow Body Aircraft |
604.1
|
567.7
|
550.5
|
538.8
|
533.7
|
546.2
|
562.5
|
578.2
|
596.6
|
616.9
|
634.1
|
652.0
|
670.6
|
689.8
|
709.2
|
728.1
|
746.7
|
765.8
|
785.5
|
804.3
|
821.9
|
838.8
|
856.0
|
873.2
|
890.0
|
907.7
|
2.0%
|
| Wide Body Aircraft |
563.7
|
540.8
|
535.2
|
534.6
|
540.2
|
564.0
|
592.4
|
620.9
|
653.2
|
688.4
|
721.2
|
755.7
|
791.8
|
829.7
|
868.7
|
908.3
|
948.5
|
990.3
|
1033.9
|
1077.5
|
1120.5
|
1163.6
|
1208.0
|
1253.6
|
1299.6
|
1348.0
|
3.9%
|
| Aircraft Sales | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Narrow Body Aircraft |
276.6
|
235.1
|
199.8
|
169.8
|
144.4
|
122.7
|
104.3
|
88.7
|
132.9
|
304.1
|
280.7
|
289.1
|
299.2
|
309.5
|
317.1
|
320.7
|
325.1
|
338.0
|
351.8
|
353.7
|
351.8
|
354.6
|
364.7
|
371.8
|
373.2
|
385.2
|
2.1%
|
| Wide Body Aircraft |
77.8
|
66.1
|
56.2
|
47.8
|
40.6
|
34.5
|
22.2
|
91.5
|
101.4
|
109.0
|
104.9
|
109.5
|
114.4
|
119.3
|
123.3
|
125.9
|
128.7
|
134.2
|
140.0
|
142.1
|
142.9
|
145.4
|
150.7
|
155.4
|
158.5
|
165.9
|
3.9%
|
| Aircraft Stock | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Narrow Body Aircraft |
5016.5
|
5136.0
|
5216.5
|
5264.4
|
5285.5
|
5284.1
|
5264.1
|
5228.0
|
5235.5
|
5412.9
|
5564.6
|
5721.7
|
5884.8
|
6053.1
|
6222.9
|
6389.3
|
6552.4
|
6719.9
|
6892.4
|
7057.6
|
7211.9
|
7360.5
|
7511.2
|
7662.4
|
7809.6
|
7964.7
|
1.8%
|
| Wide Body Aircraft |
1167.2
|
1215.4
|
1251.6
|
1277.2
|
1293.6
|
1302.0
|
1296.4
|
1358.6
|
1429.3
|
1506.4
|
1578.3
|
1653.6
|
1732.8
|
1815.6
|
1901.0
|
1987.7
|
2075.5
|
2167.0
|
2262.5
|
2357.9
|
2451.9
|
2546.3
|
2643.6
|
2743.3
|
2844.0
|
2949.8
|
3.8%
|
| Advanced Technology Penetration | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ultra-high Bypass |
0.07
|
0.03
|
0.04
|
0.15
|
0.08
|
0.08
|
0.08
|
0.08
|
0.08
|
0.08
|
0.08
|
0.08
|
0.08
|
0.15
|
0.29
|
0.47
|
0.65
|
0.82
|
0.91
|
0.96
|
0.98
|
0.99
|
1.00
|
1.00
|
1.00
|
1.00
|
15.1%
|
| Propfan |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
N/A
|
| Thermodynamics |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
N/A
|
| Hybrid Laminar Flow |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
N/A
|
| Advanced Aerodynamics |
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
N/A
|
| Weight Reducing Materials |
0.00
|
0.01
|
0.02
|
0.04
|
0.08
|
0.14
|
0.25
|
0.40
|
0.57
|
0.73
|
0.85
|
0.92
|
0.96
|
0.98
|
0.99
|
0.99
|
1.00
|
1.00
|
1.00
|
1.00
|
1.00
|
1.00
|
1.00
|
1.00
|
1.00
|
1.00
|
21.2%
|
| New Aircraft Efficiency 3/ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Narrow Body Aircraft |
49.7
|
50.1
|
50.5
|
50.8
|
51.1
|
51.4
|
51.7
|
52.0
|
52.3
|
52.6
|
53.1
|
53.5
|
53.9
|
54.3
|
54.7
|
55.1
|
55.5
|
55.9
|
56.4
|
56.8
|
57.2
|
57.6
|
58.1
|
58.5
|
58.9
|
59.4
|
0.7%
|
| Wide Body Aircraft |
59.9
|
60.3
|
60.6
|
60.9
|
61.1
|
61.3
|
61.6
|
61.7
|
62.1
|
62.5
|
62.9
|
63.2
|
63.6
|
64.0
|
64.4
|
65.3
|
66.3
|
67.2
|
67.7
|
68.0
|
68.1
|
68.1
|
68.2
|
68.2
|
68.5
|
68.9
|
0.6%
|
| Average Aircraft |
51.6
|
52.0
|
52.4
|
52.7
|
53.0
|
53.3
|
53.2
|
56.6
|
56.2
|
54.9
|
55.4
|
55.8
|
56.3
|
56.7
|
57.1
|
57.6
|
58.2
|
58.7
|
59.2
|
59.6
|
60.0
|
60.3
|
60.7
|
61.1
|
61.5
|
61.9
|
0.7%
|
| Aircraft Stock Efficiency 3/ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Narrow Body Aircraft |
46.6
|
46.9
|
47.3
|
47.6
|
47.9
|
48.1
|
48.4
|
48.7
|
49.0
|
49.4
|
49.7
|
50.1
|
50.5
|
50.9
|
51.3
|
51.7
|
52.0
|
52.4
|
52.8
|
53.2
|
53.6
|
54.0
|
54.4
|
54.8
|
55.2
|
55.7
|
0.7%
|
| Wide Body Aircraft |
56.2
|
56.5
|
56.8
|
57.0
|
57.2
|
57.4
|
57.6
|
57.9
|
58.3
|
58.7
|
59.0
|
59.4
|
59.7
|
60.1
|
60.4
|
60.8
|
61.2
|
61.6
|
62.0
|
62.4
|
62.8
|
63.2
|
63.6
|
63.9
|
64.2
|
64.6
|
0.6%
|
| Average Aircraft |
50.8
|
51.2
|
51.5
|
51.8
|
52.2
|
52.5
|
52.7
|
53.1
|
53.4
|
53.9
|
54.3
|
54.7
|
55.1
|
55.5
|
55.9
|
56.3
|
56.8
|
57.2
|
57.7
|
58.1
|
58.6
|
59.0
|
59.4
|
59.8
|
60.3
|
60.7
|
0.7%
|
| Fuel Consumption (trillion Btu) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Commercial | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Jet Fuel |
3103.3
|
2924.3
|
2844.8
|
2794.7
|
2779.7
|
2857.1
|
2956.7
|
3049.7
|
3156.9
|
3271.1
|
3371.2
|
3475.2
|
3583.3
|
3695.3
|
3809.0
|
3920.6
|
4030.0
|
4141.8
|
4256.9
|
4368.9
|
4475.8
|
4580.7
|
4688.3
|
4797.6
|
4905.5
|
5019.0
|
2.3%
|
| Aviation Gasoline |
42.6
|
42.5
|
42.4
|
42.3
|
42.3
|
42.3
|
42.2
|
42.2
|
42.2
|
42.2
|
42.1
|
42.1
|
42.1
|
42.1
|
42.1
|
42.1
|
42.1
|
42.1
|
42.1
|
42.1
|
42.1
|
42.1
|
42.1
|
42.1
|
42.1
|
42.1
|
0.0%
|
| Military | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Jet Fuel |
476.7
|
501.7
|
518.2
|
552.2
|
560.0
|
555.9
|
557.1
|
557.2
|
558.5
|
560.1
|
561.6
|
562.9
|
567.7
|
574.6
|
581.6
|
588.6
|
595.7
|
602.9
|
610.1
|
617.4
|
624.7
|
632.1
|
639.6
|
647.1
|
654.7
|
662.4
|
1.2%
|
| 1/
Fraction of seats filled. 2/ 1992 cents per passenger mile. 3/ Seat miles per gallon. Btu = British thermal unit. N/A = Not applicable. Sources: 2001 derived using: Decision Analysis Corporation of Virginia, NEMS Transportation Sector Model: Model Maintenance Re-Estimation of the Air Travel DemandModel, Subtask 22-1(a), (September 30, 1997); Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), FAA Aviation Forecasts, Fiscal Years 1998-2009, FAA-APO 98-1, and previous editions;United States Department of Transportation (DOT), Research and Special Programs Administration (RSPA), Fuel Cost and Consumption Tables, annual summaries,1979-1990; U.S. Department of Transportation, RSPA, Air Carrier Financial Statistics Quarterly, December 1999/1998; U.S. Department of Transportation, RSPA, Air CarrierStatistics Monthly, December 2001/2000 (Washington, DC, 2001); Greene, D.L., "Energy Efficiency Improvement Potential of Commercial Aircraft to 2010," ORNL-6622, 6/1990;Rathi, A. B. Peterson, and D. Greene, Air Transport Energy Use Model, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, April 1991, Draft; Energy Information Administration (EIA), State EnergyData Report 1999, DOE/EIA-0214(99) (Washington, DC, May 2001); Department of Defense, Defense Energy Support Center, Fact Book: Fiscal Year 1999; and EIA, AEO2003National Energy Modeling System run aeo2003.d110502c. Projections: EIA AEO2003 National Energy Modeling System run aeo2003.d110502c. |
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