Supplement Tables
to the Annual Energy Outlook 2003
Table 48. Light-Duty Vehicle Miles Traveled by Technology Type
(Billion Miles, Unless Otherwise Noted)
| 2001- |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2025 |
|
| Conventional Vehicles 1/ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gasoline ICE Vehicles | 2308.3 |
2338.2 |
2399.7 |
2416.9 |
2436.0 |
2470.5 |
2510.7 |
2552.4 |
2592.8 |
2634.1 |
2679.9 |
2721.5 |
2764.6 |
2809.9 |
2850.3 |
2890.4 |
2932.3 |
2972.3 |
3016.3 |
3065.3 |
3107.2 |
3145.6 |
3188.5 |
3238.5 |
3294.0 |
3346.5 |
1.5% |
| TDI Diesel ICE | 22.6 |
27.7 |
33.0 |
38.3 |
43.9 |
50.0 |
56.1 |
61.8 |
67.8 |
73.8 |
79.7 |
85.1 |
90.4 |
95.7 |
100.9 |
105.6 |
110.3 |
115.1 |
119.9 |
124.8 |
129.4 |
133.3 |
137.3 |
141.6 |
146.1 |
151.0 |
7.3% |
| Alternative-Fuel Vehicles | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Alcohol Fuel Technology | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Methanol-Flex Fuel ICE | 0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-11.5% |
| Methanol ICE | 0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
5.2% |
| Ethanol-Flex Fuel ICE | 19.5 |
32.8 |
46.1 |
58.7 |
71.1 |
82.8 |
94.0 |
105.1 |
116.1 |
126.9 |
137.9 |
148.5 |
158.6 |
168.6 |
178.1 |
187.3 |
195.9 |
204.1 |
212.1 |
220.0 |
227.0 |
233.3 |
239.6 |
246.1 |
252.8 |
259.0 |
9.0% |
| Ethanol ICE | 0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
10.3% |
| Natural Gas Technology | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Compressed Natural Gas ICE | 0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
2.5% |
| Compressed Natural Gas Bi-fuel | 1.4 |
2.2 |
2.9 |
3.6 |
4.4 |
5.0 |
5.5 |
5.9 |
6.4 |
6.8 |
7.2 |
7.6 |
8.0 |
8.4 |
8.8 |
9.2 |
9.5 |
9.9 |
10.2 |
10.5 |
10.7 |
11.0 |
11.2 |
11.4 |
11.6 |
11.9 |
7.3% |
| Liquefied Petroleum Gas ICE | 0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
7.0% |
| Liquefied Petroleum Gas Bi-fuel | 2.0 |
4.8 |
7.5 |
10.3 |
13.0 |
15.5 |
17.2 |
18.7 |
20.2 |
21.7 |
23.2 |
24.7 |
26.1 |
27.5 |
28.9 |
30.2 |
31.5 |
32.6 |
33.7 |
34.8 |
35.7 |
36.5 |
37.2 |
38.0 |
38.8 |
39.6 |
9.2% |
| Electric Technology | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Electric Vehicle | 0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.4 |
1.6 |
1.9 |
2.2 |
2.5 |
2.8 |
3.2 |
3.6 |
4.1 |
4.7 |
5.2 |
5.9 |
6.6 |
7.3 |
8.0 |
8.6 |
9.2 |
16.5% |
| Electric-Diesel Hybrid | 0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
1.2 |
1.7 |
2.3 |
2.9 |
3.6 |
4.3 |
5.2 |
6.1 |
6.9 |
8.0 |
9.1 |
10.2 |
11.5 |
12.7 |
13.9 |
15.0 |
16.3 |
17.6 |
25.0% |
| Electric-Gasoline Hybrid | 0.7 |
2.1 |
4.1 |
7.2 |
11.9 |
16.8 |
22.9 |
32.1 |
45.6 |
58.5 |
72.0 |
87.3 |
101.5 |
115.7 |
131.6 |
147.4 |
161.4 |
177.2 |
192.8 |
208.3 |
223.8 |
238.6 |
253.2 |
267.7 |
282.1 |
295.5 |
22.9% |
| Fuel Cell Technology | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fuel Cell Gasoline | 0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
N/A |
| Fuel Cell Methanol | 0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
N/A |
| Fuel Cell Hydrogen | 0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
N/A |
| VMT Equation Components | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total VMT (billion miles) | 2355.1 |
2408.5 |
2494.3 |
2536.1 |
2581.6 |
2642.0 |
2708.2 |
2778.2 |
2851.8 |
2925.4 |
3004.4 |
3080.3 |
3155.9 |
3233.6 |
3307.5 |
3380.4 |
3452.3 |
3524.4 |
3600.0 |
3680.4 |
3752.7 |
3819.2 |
3889.9 |
3968.1 |
4052.5 |
4132.5 |
2.3% |
| VMT per Driving Population (thousand miles) | 11.4 |
11.5 |
11.7 |
11.8 |
11.8 |
12.0 |
12.1 |
12.3 |
12.4 |
12.6 |
12.8 |
13.0 |
13.1 |
13.3 |
13.5 |
13.7 |
13.9 |
14.1 |
14.3 |
14.5 |
14.6 |
14.8 |
14.9 |
15.1 |
15.3 |
15.5 |
1.3% |
| Driving Population (million) | 213.1 |
215.4 |
217.8 |
220.1 |
222.4 |
224.8 |
227.3 |
229.7 |
232.1 |
234.4 |
236.6 |
238.7 |
240.7 |
242.7 |
244.7 |
246.7 |
248.7 |
250.6 |
252.6 |
254.5 |
256.5 |
258.5 |
260.4 |
262.5 |
264.5 |
266.6 |
0.9% |
| Price Effects | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Motor Gasoline Price (1987 $ per million Btu) | 8.81 |
8.20 |
7.77 |
8.21 |
8.07 |
8.00 |
8.07 |
8.09 |
8.10 |
8.16 |
8.17 |
8.10 |
8.08 |
8.03 |
8.05 |
8.04 |
8.07 |
8.18 |
8.21 |
8.22 |
8.23 |
8.21 |
8.24 |
8.32 |
8.37 |
8.57 |
0.2% |
| Fleet Miles per Gallon | 20.23 |
19.92 |
19.81 |
19.72 |
19.66 |
19.59 |
19.53 |
19.47 |
19.43 |
19.39 |
19.38 |
19.38 |
19.39 |
19.42 |
19.47 |
19.53 |
19.59 |
19.67 |
19.75 |
19.84 |
19.93 |
20.01 |
20.08 |
20.15 |
20.23 |
20.30 |
0.1% |
| Real Cost of Driving per Mile (1987 cents) | 7.019 |
6.640 |
6.322 |
6.713 |
6.619 |
6.588 |
6.666 |
6.695 |
6.720 |
6.782 |
6.801 |
6.737 |
6.716 |
6.669 |
6.666 |
6.636 |
6.638 |
6.706 |
6.704 |
6.683 |
6.654 |
6.620 |
6.619 |
6.657 |
6.674 |
6.802 |
0.1% |
| Point Price Elasticity | -0.046 |
-0.043 |
-0.040 |
-0.043 |
-0.042 |
-0.041 |
-0.041 |
-0.041 |
-0.041 |
-0.040 |
-0.040 |
-0.039 |
-0.038 |
-0.038 |
-0.037 |
-0.036 |
-0.036 |
-0.036 |
-0.035 |
-0.035 |
-0.034 |
-0.034 |
-0.033 |
-0.033 |
-0.033 |
-0.033 |
-1.1% |
| Income Effects | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Disposable Income (billion 1987 dollars) | 5737.2 |
5839.1 |
6097.6 |
6196.2 |
6272.3 |
6421.2 |
6598.7 |
6791.0 |
7003.7 |
7225.1 |
7473.7 |
7705.6 |
7944.7 |
8192.1 |
8461.4 |
8727.9 |
8994.4 |
9269.1 |
9555.7 |
9864.0 |
10135.4 |
10386.5 |
10658.9 |
10968.7 |
11302.0 |
11625.5 |
2.9% |
| Point Income Elasticity | 0.501 |
0.501 |
0.507 |
0.509 |
0.508 |
0.510 |
0.514 |
0.518 |
0.523 |
0.528 |
0.533 |
0.538 |
0.543 |
0.548 |
0.553 |
0.558 |
0.563 |
0.568 |
0.573 |
0.579 |
0.583 |
0.587 |
0.592 |
0.597 |
0.602 |
0.607 |
0.8% |
| Demographic Driving Population Effect | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Percentage Female Driving Population | 0.601 |
0.610 |
0.617 |
0.624 |
0.630 |
0.636 |
0.641 |
0.646 |
0.650 |
0.654 |
0.658 |
0.661 |
0.664 |
0.666 |
0.668 |
0.670 |
0.672 |
0.674 |
0.675 |
0.676 |
0.677 |
0.677 |
0.677 |
0.677 |
0.677 |
0.677 |
0.4% |
| Point Demographic Elasticity | 0.339 |
0.341 |
0.337 |
0.340 |
0.342 |
0.341 |
0.340 |
0.338 |
0.336 |
0.334 |
0.330 |
0.327 |
0.324 |
0.321 |
0.317 |
0.314 |
0.311 |
0.308 |
0.304 |
0.300 |
0.297 |
0.294 |
0.291 |
0.288 |
0.284 |
0.280 |
-0.8% |
| 1/ Includes
personal and fleet vehicles. Includes both cars and light trucks. VMT = Vehicle miles traveled. ICE = Internal combustion engine. N/A = Not applicable. Sources: 2001 derived using: Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics 2000 (Washington, DC, November 2001); Oak Ridge National Laboratory, TransportationEnergy Data Book: Edition 22 and Annual (Oak Ridge, TN, September 2002); United States Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, "Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey,"EC97TV (Washington, DC, October 1999); and Energy Information Administration (EIA), AEO2003 National Energy Modeling System run aeo2003.d110502c. Projections: EIA,AEO2003 National Energy Modeling System run aeo2003.d110502c. |
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