Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2003

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2003

Table 73. Cost and Performance Characteristics for Renewable Energy Generating Technologies: Two
Cases

Technology/Decision Year	Total Overnight Costs¹			Best Available Capacity Factors
Technology/Decision Year	Overnight Costs in 2001 (Reference) ($2000/kW)	Reference ($2000/kW)	High Renewable ($2000/kW)	Reference (%)	High Renewable (%)
Biomass	1,764
2005		1,718	1,669	80	80
2010		1,635	1,573	80	80
2015		1,547	1,461	80	80
2020		1,464	1,352	80	80
2025		1,265	1,272	80	80
MSW - Landfill Gas²	1,461
2005		1,451	1,451	90	90
2010		1,436	1,436	90	90
2015		1,420	1,420	90	90
2020		1,404	1,404	90	90
2025		1,388	1,388	90	90
Geothermal³	1,766
2005		1,736	1,498	95	95
2010		1,624	1,236	95	95
2015		1,684	1,218	95	95
2020		1,614	1,240	95	95
2025		1,802	1,240	95	95
Wind	1,004
2005		997	984	40	42
2010		994	951	41	44
2015		992	919	42	46
2020		990	886	42	47
2025		989	853	42	48
Solar Thermal	2,595
2005		2,528	2,970	42	52
2010		2,413	3,056	42	63
2015		2,292	2,999	42	75
2020		2,170	2,942	42	77
2025		2,047	2,866	42	77
Photovoltaic	3,460
2005		2,733	3,260	30	30
2010		2,462	1,686	30	30
2015		2,346	1,466	30	30
2020		2,270	1,246	30	30
2025		2,219	1,142	30	30
¹Overnight capital cost (i.e.excluding interest charges), plus contingency factors and learning, excluding regional multipliers. ²Provided to show evolution of landfill gas costs through 2025; for landfill gas, assumptions in the high renewables case are unchanged from the reference case ³Because geothermal cost and performance characteristics are specific for each site, the table entries represent the least cost units available in the Northwest Power Pool region, where most of the proposed sites are located. Source: Capital Costs: AEO2002 National Energy Modeling System runs: aeo2003.d110502c, hirenew03.d110602b; capacity factors: Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, as described in text in this report for each technology.