Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2003
Table 57. Assumed Rates of Technological Progress
for Unconventional Gas Recovery
| Technology Group |
Item |
Type of Deposit |
Technology Case |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slow |
Reference |
Rapid |
|||
| 1 |
Year Hypothetical Plays Become Available |
All Types |
NA |
2025 |
2021 |
| 2 |
Decrease in Extended Portion of Development Schedule for Emerging Plays (per year) |
Coalbed Methane & Gas Shales |
2.83% |
3.33% |
3.83% |
| Tight Sands |
3.54% |
4.16% |
4.78% |
||
| 3 |
Expansion of Existing Reserves (per year -declining 0.1% per year; eg., 3.0, 2.0...) |
Coalbed Methane & Tight Sands Gas Shales |
1.70% 2.55% |
2.0% 3.0% |
2.3% 3.45% |
| 4 |
Increase in Percentage of Wells Drilled Successfully (per year) |
All Types |
0.21% |
0.25% |
0.29% |
| Year that Best 30 Percent of Basin is Fully Identified |
All Types |
2021 |
2017 |
2014 |
|
| 5 |
Increase in EUR per Well (per year) |
All Types |
0.14% |
0.17% |
0.19% |
| 6 |
Increase in EUR per Well (per year) |
All types |
0.28% |
0.33% |
0.38% |
| 7 |
Decrease in Drilling and Stimulation Costs per Well (per year) |
All types |
0.28% |
0.33% |
0.38% |
| 8 |
Decrease in Water and Gas Treatment O&M Costs per Well (per year) |
All Types |
0.57% |
.67% |
0.77% |
| 9 |
Year Advanced Well Completion Technologies Become Available |
Coalbed Methane & Tight Sands |
2020 |
2016 |
2013 |
| Gas Shales |
NA |
NA |
2023 |
||
| Increase in EUR per well (total increase) |
Coalbed Methane |
17% |
20% |
23% |
|
| Tight Sands |
8.5% |
10% |
11.5% |
||
| Gas Shales |
NA |
NA |
NA |
||
| 10 |
Year Advanced Recovery Technologies Become Available |
Coalbed Methane Tight Sands |
NA NA |
NA NA |
2022 2022 |
| Increase in EUR per well (total increase) |
Coalbed Methane |
NA |
NA |
34.5% |
|
| Tight Sands |
NA |
NA |
11.5% |
||
| Gas Shales |
NA |
NA |
NA |
||
| Increase in Costs ($1998/Mcf) for Incremental CBM production |
Coalbed Methane |
NA |
NA |
0.75 |
|
| Tight Sands & Gas Shales |
NA |
NA |
NA |
||
| 11 |
Proportion of Areas Currently Restricted that Become Available for Development (per year) |
All types
|
0.85% |
1% |
1.15% |
EUR = Estimated Ultimate Recovery.
|
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