Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2003
Table 56. Assumed Annual Rates of Technological
Progress on Costs, Finding Rates,
and
Success Rates for Conventional Sources
| Natural Gas Crude Oil |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Category |
Slow |
Reference |
Rapid |
Slow |
Reference |
Rapid |
| Costs |
||||||
| Drilling |
||||||
| Onshore |
1.59 |
1.87 |
2.15 |
1.59 |
1.87 |
2.15 |
| Offshore |
1.28 |
1.50 |
1.73 |
1.28 |
1.50 |
1.73 |
| Alaska |
0.85 |
1.00 |
1.15 |
0.85 |
1.00 |
1.15 |
| Lease Equipment |
||||||
| Onshore |
1.02 |
1.20 |
1.38 |
1.02 |
1.20 |
1.38 |
| Offshore |
1.28 |
1.50 |
1.73 |
1.28 |
1.50 |
1.73 |
| Alaska |
0.85 |
1.00 |
1.15 |
0.85 |
1.00 |
1.15 |
| Operating |
||||||
| Onshore |
0.46 |
0.54 |
0.62 |
0.46 |
0.54 |
0.62 |
| Offshore |
1.28 |
1.50 |
1.73 |
1.28 |
1.50 |
1.73 |
| Alaska |
0.85 |
1.00 |
1.15 |
0.85 |
1.00 |
1.15 |
| Finding Rates |
||||||
| New Field Wildcats |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| Other Exploratory |
2.55 |
3.00 |
3.45 |
3.01 |
3.54 |
4.07 |
| Developmental |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| Success Rates |
||||||
| Developmental |
0.57 |
0.67 |
0.77 |
0.57 |
0.67 |
0.77 |
| Exploratory |
2.23 |
2.62 |
3.01 |
2.23 |
2.62 |
3.01 |
| Source: Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. | ||||||