Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2003

 

Table 42.    Learning Parameters for New Generating Technologies

 

Period 1

Period 2

Period 3

Period 1

Period 2

Minimum Total

Technology

Learning Rate

Learning  Rate

Learning  Rate

Doublings

Doublings

Learning by 2020

Conventional Pulverized Coal

-

-

0.01

-

-

0.05

Integrated Coal-Gasification Combined  Cycle

-

0.05

0.01

-

5

0.10

Gas/Oil Steam Turbine
-
-
0.01
-
-
0.05

Conv Gas/Oil Combined Cycle

-

-

0.01

-

-

0.05

Adv Gas/Oil Combined Cycle

-

0.05

0.01

-

5

0.10

Conv Combustion Turbine

-

-

0.01

-

-

0.05

Adv Combustion Turbine

-

0.05

0.01

-

5

0.10

Fuel Cells

0.1

0.05

0.01

3

5

0.20

Adv Nuclear

-

0.05

0.01

-

5

0.10

Distributed Generation - Base

-

0.05

0.01

-

5

0.10

Distributed Generation - Peak

-

0.05

0.01

-

5

0.10

Biomass

0.1

0.05

0.01

3

5

0.20

MSW - Landfill Gas

-

-

0

-

-

0.05

Geothermal

-

0.05

0.01

-

5

0.10

Wind

-

-

0.01

-

-

0.01

Solar Thermal

0.1

0.05

0.01

3

5

0.20

Photovoltaic

0.1

0.05

0.01

3

5

0.20

Note: Please see the text for a description of the methodology for learning in the Electricity Market Module.
Source: Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting.