Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2003

Table 35.    Future New Aircraft Technology Improvement List

  Proposed Technology

Introduction Year

Jet Fuel Price Necessary For Cost-Effectiveness
(1987 dollars per gallon)

 

Seat-Miles
per Gallon Gain
Over 1990
(percent)

Narrow
Body

Wide
Body

Engines

       

  Ultra-high Bypass    

1995

 $.69

10

10

  Propfan    

2000

$1.36

23

  0

Thermodynamics    

2010

 $1.22

20

20

Aerodynamics

       

   Hybrid Laminar Flow

2020

$1.53

15

15

  Advanced Aerodynamics

2000

$1.70

18

18

Other

       

  Weight Reducing Materials

2000

-

15

15

Source:  Greene, D.L., Energy Efficiency Improvement Potential of Commercial Aircraft to 2010, ORNL-6622, 6/1990., and from data tables in the Air Transportation Energy Use Model (ATEM), Oak Ridge National Laboratory.