Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2003

Table 27. Coefficients for Technology Possibility Curves, High Technology Case

Industry/Process Unit	Old Facilities		New Facilities
Industry/Process Unit	REI 2025	TPC	REI 1998	REI 2025	TPC
Food & Kindred Products
Process Heating Process Cooling Other	0.829 0.829 0.829	-0.0069 -0.0069 -0.0069	0.900 0.850 0.915	0.629 0.594 0.639	-0.0132 -0.0132 -0.0132

Paper & Allied Products
Wood Preparation Waste Pulping Mechanical Pulping Semi-chemical Kraft, Sulfite, misc.Chemicals Bleaching Paper Making	0.843 0.899 0.882 0.815 0.714 0.780 0.687	-0.0063 -0.0039 -0.0046 -0.0076 -0.0124 -0.0092 -0.0138	0.873 0.936 0.868 0.876 0.876 0.900 0.900	0.789 0.809 0.804 0.635 0.411 0.544 0.343	-0.0037 -0.0054 -0.0028 -0.0119 -0.0276 -0.0185 -0.0351

Bulk Chemicals
Process Heating Process Cooling Electro-Chemical Other	0.843 0.843 0.843 0.843	0.844 0.844 0.844 0.844	0.900 0.850 0.950 0.915	0.644 0.608 0.680 0.655	-0.0123 -0.0123 -0.0123 -0.0123

Glass & Glass Products
Batch Preparation Melting/Refining Forming Post-Forming	0.856 0.710 0.866 0.804	-0.0057 -0.0126 -0.0053 -0.0080	0.882 0.900 0.982 0.968	0.646 0.418 0.682 0.530	0.0115 -0.0280 -0.0134 -0.0220

Hydraulic Cement
Dry Process Wet Process Finish Grinding	0.788 0.788 0.822	-0.0088 -0.0088 -0.0072	0.889 NA 0.950	0.558 NA 0.629	-0.0171 NA -0.0152

Blast Furnaces & Basic Steel
Coke Oven BF/BOF EAF Ingot Casting/Primary Rolling Continuous Casting Hot Rolling Cold Rolling	0.592 0.905 0.800 1.000 0.931 0.427 0.383	-0.0192 -0.0037 -0.0082 0.0000 -0.0026 -0.0310 -0.0349	0.874 1.000 0.990 NA 1.000 0.750 0.924	0.502 0.678 0.632 NA 0.867 0.093 0.023	-0.0203 -0.0143 -0.0165 NA -0.0053 -0.0743 -0.1278

Aluminum
Alumina Refining Primary Smelting Secondary Semi-Fabrication, Sheet Semi-Fabrication, Other	0.859 0.816 0.666 0.689 0.706	-0.0056 -0.0075 -0.0149 -0.0137 -0.0128	0.900 0.950 0.750 0.900 0.950	0.678 0.581 0.388 0.353 0.346	-0.0104 -0.0180 -0.0241 -0.0341 -0.0367

Metal Based Durables
Process Heating Process Cooling Electro-Chemical Other	0.814 0.814 0.814 0.814	-0.0076 -0.0076 -0.0076 -0.0076	0.900 0.850 0.950 0.915	0.614 0.580 0.648 0.624	-0.0141 -0.0141 -0.0141 -0.0141
Other Non-Intensive Manufacturing
Process Heating Process Cooling Electro-Chemical Other	0.819 0.819 0.819 0.819	-0.0073 -0.0073 -0.0073 -0.0073	0.900 0.850 0.950 0.915	0.616 0.582 0.650 0.626	-0.0139 -0.0139 -0.0139 -0.0139
Non-Manufacturing	0.947	-0.0020	0.900	0.808	-0.0040
¹REIs and TPCs apply to virgin and recycled materials. ²No new plants are likely to be built with these technologies. ³Net shape casting is projected to reduce the energy requirements for hot and cold rolling rather than for the continuous casting step. REI 1998 New Facilities = For new facilities, the ratiio of State-of-the-art energy intensity to average 1998 energy intensity for existing facilities. REI 2025 Existing Facilities = Ratio of 2025 energy intensity to average 1998 energy intensity for existing facilities. REI 2025 New Facilities = Ratio of 2025 energy intensity for a new State-of-the-art facility to the average 1998 intensity for existing facilities. TPC = annual rate of change between 1998 and 2025. NA = Not applicable. BF = Blast furnace. BOF = Basic oxygen furnace. EAF = Electric arc furnace. Source: Energy Information Administration, Model Documentation Report, Industrial Sector Demand Module of the National Energy Modeling System, DOE/EIA-M064(2003) (Washington, DC, January 2003).