Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2003

Table 21. Coefficients for Technology Possibility Curve

Industry/Process Unit	Old Facilities		New Facilities
Industry/Process Unit	REI 2025	TPC	REI 1998	REI 2025	TPC
Food & Kindred Products
Process Heating Process Cooling Other	0.900 0.875 0.914	-0.0039 -0.0049 -0.0033	0.900 0.850 0.915	0.800 0.750 0.810	-0.0044 -0.0046 -0.0045

Paper & Allied Products
Wood Preparation Waste Pulping Mechanical Pulping Semi-chemical Kraft, Sulfite, misc. Chemicals Bleaching Paper Making	0.923 0.941 0.917 0.874 0.816 0.871 0.797	-0.0030 -0.0022 -0.0032 -0.0050 -0.0075 -0.0051 -0.0084	0.873 0.936 0.868 0.876 0.876 0.900 0.900	0.846 0.883 0.834 0.748 0.632 0.743 0.594	-0.0012 -0.0022 -0.0015 -0.0059 -0.0121 -0.0071 -0.0154

Bulk Chemicals
Process Heating Process Cooling Electro-Chemical Other	0.900 0.875 0.980 0.914	-0.0039 -0.0049 -0.0007 -0.0033	0.900 0.850 0.950 0.915	0.800 0.750 0.850 0.810	-0.0044 -0.0046 -0.0041 -0.0045

Glass & Glass Products
Batch Preparation Melting/Refining Forming Post-Forming	0.941 0.713 0.904 0.925	-0.0023 -0.0125 -0.0037 -0.0029	0.882 0.900 0.982 0.968	0.882 0.426 0.809 0.849	0.0000 -0.0277 -0.0072 -0.0048
Hydraulic Cement
Dry Process Wet Process Finish Grinding	0.841 0.936 0.837	-0.0064 -0.0025 -0.0066	0.889 NA 0.950	0.682 NA 0.675	-0.0098 NA -0.0127

Blast Furnaces & Basic Steel
Coke Oven BF/BOF EAF Ingot Casting/Primary Rolling Continuous Casting Hot Rolling Cold Rolling	0.915 0.990 0.995 1.000 1.000 0.744 0.739	-0.0033 -0.0004 -0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0110 -0.0112	0.874 1.000 0.990 NA 1.000 0.750 0.924	0.830 0.980 0.990 NA 1.000 0.488 0.479	-0.0019 -0.0008 0.0000 NA 0.0000 -0.0160 -0.0244

Aluminum
Alumina Refining Primary Smelting Secondary Semi-Fabrication, Sheet Semi-Fabrication, Other	0.931 0.909 0.781 0.747 0.875	-0.0027 -0.0035 -0.0091 -0.0108 -0.0050	0.900 0.950 0.750 0.900 0.950	0.861 0.818 0.563 0.494 0.750	-0.0016 -0.0056 -0.0107 -0.0222 -0.0088

Metal Based Durables
Process Heating Process Cooling Electro-Chemical Other	0.900 0.875 0.980 0.914	-0.0039 -0.0049 -0.0007 -0.0033	0.900 0.850 0.950 0.915	0.800 0.750 0.850 0.810	-0.0044 -0.0046 -0.0041 -0.0045
Balance of Manufacturing
Process Heating Process Cooling Electro-Chemical Other	0.900 0.875 0.980 0.914	-0.0039 -0.0049 -0.0007 -0.0033	0.900 0.850 0.950 0.915	0.800 0.750 0.850 0.810	-0.0044 -0.0046 -0.0041 -0.0045
Non-Manufacturing	0.973	-0.0010	0.900	0.853	-0.0020
¹REIs and TPCs apply to virgin and recycled materials. ²No new plants are likely to be built with these technologies. ³Net shape casting is projected to reduce the energy requirements for hot and cold rolling rather than for the continuous casting step. REI 1998 New Facilities = For new facilities, the ratio of state-of-the-art energy intensity to average 1998 energy intensity for existing facilities. REI 2025 Existing Facilities = Ratio of 2025 energy intensity to average 1998 energy intensity for existing facilities. REI 2025 New Facilities = Ratio of 2025 energy intensity for a new state-of-the-art facility to the average 1998 intensity for existing facilities. TPC = annual rate of change between 1998 and 2025. NA = Not applicable. BF = Blast furnace. BOF = Basic oxygen furnace. EAF = Electric arc furnace. Source: Energy Information Administration, Model Documentation Report, Industrial Sector Demand Module of the National Energy Modeling System, DOE/EIA-M064(2003) (Washington, DC, January 2003).