Annual Energy Outlook 2003 with Projections to 2025
Reference Case

Table 9. Electricity Generating Capacity
(Gigawatts)

Net Summer Capacity 1/
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2001-
2025
                                                       
Electric Power Sector 2/                                                      
                                                       
Power Only 3/                                                      
Coal Steam
305.4
305.3
305.6
305.4
304.1
303.1
302.0
302.2
301.8
303.2
306.4
309.4
310.1
312.8
315.7
323.0
326.4
331.9
335.5
340.4
343.2
345.4
350.7
356.5
361.4
370.6
0.8%
Other Fossil Steam 4/
134.8
133.8
132.6
131.3
131.0
118.6
100.1
93.2
87.3
84.8
83.4
82.9
82.3
80.2
79.3
78.4
78.1
77.5
77.5
77.4
77.2
77.0
76.6
76.6
76.6
76.2
-2.3%
Combined Cycle
28.8
43.6
74.8
94.0
98.8
103.6
106.0
113.4
118.8
131.9
145.0
158.5
170.2
181.2
192.6
197.8
202.6
209.9
215.5
223.5
228.3
238.9
244.4
255.6
260.7
270.4
7.9%
Combustion Turbine/Diesel
78.8
98.1
121.0
124.5
126.6
126.8
125.3
123.4
124.0
124.6
128.2
128.6
132.3
132.5
136.8
139.7
142.1
144.3
146.5
149.2
152.7
159.0
163.4
168.0
169.6
173.9
2.4%
Nuclear Power 5/
98.0
98.2
98.7
99.0
99.6
100.2
100.4
99.9
99.1
99.1
99.3
99.3
99.4
99.8
99.3
99.5
99.6
99.6
99.6
99.6
99.6
99.6
99.6
99.6
99.6
99.6
0.1%
Pumped Storage
19.8
19.9
20.2
20.3
20.3
20.3
20.3
20.3
20.3
20.3
20.3
20.3
20.3
20.3
20.3
20.3
20.3
20.3
20.3
20.3
20.3
20.3
20.3
20.3
20.3
20.3
0.1%
Fuel Cells
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
33.2%
Renewable Sources 6/
88.4
90.6
91.7
93.8
93.9
95.1
95.7
96.3
96.5
97.1
97.3
97.8
98.1
98.7
99.2
99.8
100.2
100.6
100.9
101.5
102.0
102.4
102.8
103.3
103.8
104.3
0.6%
Distributed Generation (Natural Gas) 7/
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.6
0.9
1.3
1.7
2.3
2.7
3.2
4.0
4.9
5.9
7.0
8.1
9.1
10.1
11.2
12.3
13.5
14.6
15.8
N/A
Total
754.0
789.4
844.6
868.2
874.4
868.0
850.2
849.4
848.8
862.4
881.8
899.3
915.7
928.9
947.4
963.5
975.4
991.4
1004.1
1021.3
1033.7
1054.1
1070.3
1093.7
1106.8
1131.2
1.5%
Combined Heat and Power 8/                                                      
Coal Steam
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
0.0%
Other Fossil Steam 4/
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
0.0%
Combined Cycle
17.4
22.6
28.9
30.5
31.2
31.2
31.2
31.2
31.2
31.2
31.0
31.0
31.0
31.0
31.0
31.0
31.0
31.0
31.0
31.0
31.0
31.0
31.0
31.0
31.0
31.0
1.3%
Combustion Turbine/Diesel
3.4
4.5
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
0.6%
Renewable Sources 6/
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.0%
Total
27.4
33.7
40.8
42.3
43.0
43.0
43.0
43.0
43.0
43.0
42.8
42.8
42.8
42.8
42.8
42.8
42.8
42.8
42.8
42.8
42.8
42.8
42.8
42.8
42.8
42.8
1.0%
                                                       
Total Electric Power Industry
781.4
823.1
885.4
910.5
917.4
911.1
893.2
892.4
891.8
905.4
924.7
942.1
958.5
971.8
990.2
1006.4
1018.2
1034.3
1046.9
1064.1
1076.5
1096.9
1113.1
1136.5
1149.6
1174.1
1.5%
                                                       
Cumulative Planned Additions 9/                                                      
Coal Steam
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
N/A
Other Fossil Steam 4/
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
N/A
Combined Cycle
0.0
0.0
36.9
57.0
62.6
63.1
63.1
63.1
63.1
63.1
63.1
63.1
63.1
63.1
63.1
63.1
63.1
63.1
63.1
63.1
63.1
63.1
63.1
63.1
63.1
63.1
N/A
Combustion Turbine/Diesel
0.0
0.0
23.7
27.8
27.8
27.8
27.8
27.8
27.8
27.8
27.8
27.8
27.8
27.8
27.8
27.8
27.8
27.8
27.8
27.8
27.8
27.8
27.8
27.8
27.8
27.8
N/A
Nuclear Power
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
N/A
Pumped Storage
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
N/A
Fuel Cells
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
N/A
Renewable Sources 6/
0.0
0.0
1.0
2.8
3.0
3.8
4.1
4.3
4.5
4.7
4.9
5.1
5.2
5.5
5.7
5.8
6.0
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.5
6.5
6.5
6.5
N/A
Distributed Generation 7/
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
N/A
Total
0.0
0.0
61.8
88.0
93.8
95.0
95.3
95.6
95.8
96.0
96.2
96.4
96.6
96.9
97.1
97.2
97.4
97.6
97.6
97.7
97.9
97.9
97.9
97.9
98.0
98.0
N/A
                                                       
Cumulative Unplanned Additions 9/                                                      
Coal Steam
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
2.2
2.2
3.7
6.8
9.8
10.6
13.3
16.7
23.9
27.4
32.8
37.8
42.7
45.5
48.5
53.8
59.6
64.5
74.0
N/A
Other Fossil Steam 4/
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
N/A
Combined Cycle
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.2
6.6
14.5
19.8
32.9
46.1
59.6
71.2
82.2
93.6
98.8
103.6
110.9
116.5
124.6
129.3
139.9
145.4
156.6
161.7
171.4
N/A
Combustion Turbine/Diesel
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
2.4
4.5
4.5
5.1
7.2
8.4
12.3
13.2
17.3
17.5
21.7
24.8
27.5
29.7
32.5
36.3
40.0
46.3
50.7
55.5
57.7
61.9
N/A
Nuclear Power
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
N/A
Pumped Storage
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
N/A
Fuel Cells
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
N/A
Renewable Sources 6/
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.6
0.9
0.9
1.3
1.4
1.7
1.9
2.2
2.5
3.0
3.2
3.5
3.6
4.1
4.5
4.9
5.2
5.8
6.2
6.7
N/A
Distributed Generation 7/
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.6
0.9
1.3
1.7
2.3
2.7
3.2
4.0
4.9
5.9
7.0
8.1
9.1
10.1
11.2
12.3
13.5
14.6
15.8
N/A
Total
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
2.5
9.3
13.0
23.2
31.1
47.5
68.3
86.5
103.6
118.3
138.6
155.4
167.5
184.0
198.5
216.8
229.4
250.8
267.4
291.0
304.7
329.8
N/A
                                                       
Cumulative Total Additions
0.0
0.0
61.8
88.3
96.2
104.4
108.4
118.8
126.9
143.6
164.5
182.9
200.3
215.3
235.7
252.7
264.9
281.5
296.1
314.5
327.3
348.7
365.3
388.9
402.7
427.8
N/A
                                                       
Cumulative Retirements 10/                                                      
Coal Steam
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.2
2.1
4.3
5.3
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.8
6.3
6.3
6.3
6.3
7.6
7.6
7.6
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.7
N/A
Other Fossil Steam 4/
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.9
1.3
13.7
32.2
39.0
45.0
47.5
48.9
49.3
50.0
52.1
53.0
53.9
54.2
54.7
54.8
54.9
55.1
55.3
55.7
55.7
55.7
56.1
N/A
Combined Cycle
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
N/A
Combustion Turbine/Diesel
0.0
0.0
0.1
1.1
1.1
3.0
4.5
7.1
8.5
9.1
9.4
9.9
10.3
10.3
10.3
10.4
10.7
10.7
11.3
12.4
12.6
12.6
12.6
12.7
13.4
13.4
N/A
Nuclear Power
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
N/A
Pumped Storage
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
N/A
Fuel Cells
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
N/A
Renewable Sources 6/
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
N/A
Total
0.0
0.0
0.2
2.0
3.7
18.9
41.1
52.7
61.6
64.6
66.5
67.5
68.6
70.7
73.1
74.1
74.6
75.2
77.1
78.3
78.7
79.8
80.2
80.4
81.0
81.7
N/A
                                                       
End-Use Sector Generators                                                      
                                                       
Combined Heat and Power 11/                                                      
Coal
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
0.0%
Petroleum
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.6%
Natural Gas
14.2
14.5
15.0
15.3
15.6
16.1
16.6
17.0
17.5
17.9
18.3
18.7
19.1
19.4
19.8
20.2
20.7
21.2
21.8
22.5
23.3
24.0
24.9
25.8
26.8
27.7
2.7%
Other Gaseous Fuels
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.3
0.3%
Renewable Sources 6/
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.9
5.1
5.2
5.4
5.5
5.7
5.9
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
7.0
7.2
7.3
7.5
7.7
7.9
8.0
8.2
8.4
8.6
8.8
9.0
2.7%
Other
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.0%
Total
27.4
27.6
28.1
28.7
29.3
29.9
30.5
31.1
31.8
32.5
33.1
33.7
34.3
34.9
35.4
36.0
36.7
37.3
38.2
39.0
40.0
40.9
42.0
43.1
44.3
45.4
2.1%
Other End-Use Generators 12/                                                      
Renewable Sources 13/
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.5%
                                                       
Cumulative Additions 9/                                                      
Combined Heat and Power 11/
0.0
0.0
0.5
1.1
1.7
2.3
2.9
3.5
4.1
4.8
5.5
6.1
6.7
7.2
7.8
8.4
9.0
9.7
10.5
11.4
12.3
13.3
14.4
15.4
16.6
17.8
N/A
Other End-Use Generators 12/
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1