Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025-Table 8. Electricity Supply, Disposition, Prices and Emissions

Annual Energy Outlook 2003 with Projections to 2025
Reference Case

Table 8. Electricity Supply, Disposition, Prices, and Emissions
(Billion Kilowatthours, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Supply, Disposition, and Prices	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2001- 2025

Generation by Fuel Type

Electric Power Sector 1/
Power Only 2/
Coal	1911	1848	1870	1902	1942	1990	2054	2117	2133	2157	2189	2217	2231	2257	2282	2335	2363	2404	2433	2472	2497	2516	2555	2600	2637	2703	1.6%
Petroleum	98	113	34	28	31	31	32	33	37	35	39	40	42	42	44	44	45	44	43	42	43	46	42	44	50	52	-3.2%
Natural Gas 3/	399	411	441	469	504	509	521	536	608	659	708	765	833	875	921	939	980	1008	1055	1099	1143	1195	1241	1279	1322	1335	5.0%
Nuclear Power	754	769	777	781	787	793	796	804	797	798	800	801	803	807	811	805	806	807	807	807	807	807	807	807	807	807	0.2%
Pumped Storage/Other	-5	-9	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-8.9%
Renewable Sources 4/	316	258	318	361	370	378	383	386	387	390	393	395	397	400	402	405	407	408	410	413	416	418	420	423	426	429	2.1%
Distributed Generation (Natural Gas)	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	7	7	N/A
Non-Utility Generation for Own Use	-12	-21	-24	-24	-24	-24	-24	-24	-24	-24	-24	-24	-24	-24	-24	-24	-24	-24	-24	-24	-24	-24	-24	-24	-24	-24	0.6%
Total	3460	3370	3416	3517	3610	3677	3761	3852	3939	4016	4105	4195	4282	4358	4438	4505	4580	4650	4727	4813	4887	4964	5047	5135	5224	5309	1.9%
Combined Heat and Power 5/
Coal	33	33	26	26	28	30	31	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	0.1%
Petroleum	7	7	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	-2.9%
Natural Gas	119	124	171	179	180	176	177	170	175	173	167	160	155	151	147	148	147	147	148	148	150	149	150	148	148	146	0.7%
Renewable Sources	4	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	-0.6%
Non-Utility Generation for Own Use	-9	-9	-17	-17	-17	-18	-18	-18	-18	-18	-18	-18	-18	-18	-18	-18	-18	-18	-18	-18	-18	-18	-18	-18	-18	-18	2.7%
Total	155	162	186	195	198	196	198	193	197	195	190	183	178	174	170	171	170	170	171	171	173	172	173	170	171	169	0.2%

Net Available to the Grid	3616	3532	3602	3712	3808	3873	3959	4044	4136	4211	4295	4378	4460	4532	4608	4676	4750	4820	4898	4983	5059	5136	5219	5305	5395	5478	1.8%

End-Use Sector Generation
Combined Heat and Power 6/
Coal	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	0.0%
Petroleum	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	0.5%
Natural Gas	83	83	89	92	95	98	102	105	109	112	115	118	120	123	126	129	133	136	141	145	151	157	163	169	177	183	3.4%
Other Gaseous Fuels 7/	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	8	1.4%
Renewable Sources 4/	31	31	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	41	42	43	44	45	46	47	48	49	50	51	52	54	55	56	2.5%
Other 8/	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	0.0%
Total	160	159	167	171	176	180	184	188	193	198	202	206	210	214	218	222	226	231	236	242	249	256	264	271	280	287	2.5%
Other End-Use Generators 9/	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	1.6%
Generation for Own Use	-135	-137	-139	-141	-145	-147	-149	-152	-154	-157	-160	-162	-164	-166	-168	-171	-173	-176	-180	-183	-188	-192	-197	-202	-207	-212	1.8%
Total Sales to the Grid	29	27	32	34	35	37	39	41	43	45	48	49	51	53	55	56	58	60	62	65	67	70	73	75	79	82	4.7%

Net Imports	31	20	26	34	30	32	22	24	27	25	28	28	28	26	24	26	24	21	18	14	17	13	10	9	8	7	-4.5%

Electricity Sales by Sector
Residential	1193	1201	1232	1279	1307	1328	1352	1376	1405	1423	1445	1464	1487	1501	1519	1539	1562	1576	1596	1616	1640	1655	1674	1696	1722	1742	1.6%
Commercial	1160	1197	1230	1248	1283	1315	1346	1377	1409	1439	1471	1505	1538	1572	1607	1640	1673	1707	1743	1780	1816	1854	1890	1928	1965	2003	2.2%
Industrial	1064	994	930	977	1003	1017	1040	1070	1101	1126	1157	1186	1212	1233	1254	1271	1285	1302	1320	1341	1358	1376	1398	1420	1444	1466	1.6%
Transportation	21	22	22	23	23	24	25	25	26	27	27	28	29	30	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	41	42	2.8%
Total	3438	3414	3414	3527	3617	3684	3762	3848	3940	4014	4101	4183	4266	4336	4411	4481	4551	4619	4692	4772	4850	4921	5001	5083	5172	5252	1.8%

End-Use Prices (2001 cents per kilowatthour) 10/
Residential	8.4	8.6	8.2	7.9	7.8	7.8	7.7	7.6	7.6	7.6	7.6	7.7	7.7	7.7	7.7	7.7	7.8	7.7	7.8	7.8	7.8	7.8	7.9	7.9	7.9	7.9	-0.4%
Commercial	7.5	7.9	7.5	7.1	7.0	6.9	6.7	6.6	6.6	6.7	6.7	6.8	6.8	6.8	6.9	6.9	7.0	7.0	7.1	7.1	7.2	7.1	7.2	7.2	7.3	7.3	-0.4%
Industrial	4.6	4.8	4.4	4.4	4.4	4.3	4.3	4.3	4.3	4.4	4.3	4.3	4.3	4.3	4.4	4.4	4.4	4.4	4.4	4.4	4.5	4.5	4.6	4.6	4.6	4.6	-0.2%
Transportation	7.5	7.5	7.1	6.9	6.8	6.7	6.6	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.4	6.4	6.4	6.4	6.4	6.3	6.3	6.3	6.3	6.2	6.2	6.1	6.1	6.1	-0.8%
All Sectors Average	6.9	7.3	6.9	6.6	6.6	6.5	6.4	6.3	6.3	6.4	6.4	6.4	6.4	6.4	6.4	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.6	6.6	6.6	6.6	6.7	6.7	6.8	6.7	-0.3%

Prices by Service Category 10/
(2001 cents per kilowatthour)
Generation	4.2	4.7	4.4	4.2	4.0	3.9	3.8	3.8	3.8	3.8	3.8	3.9	3.9	3.9	3.9	3.9	4.0	4.0	4.0	4.0	4.1	4.1	4.2	4.2	4.2	4.2	-0.5%
Transmission	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.7%
Distribution	2.1	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	-0.2%

Emissions
Sulfur Dioxide (million tons)	11.19	10.63	10.71	10.73	10.61	10.71	10.80	10.58	10.13	9.93	9.57	9.20	8.95	8.95	8.95	8.95	8.95	8.95	8.95	8.95	8.95	8.95	8.95	8.95	8.95	8.95	-0.7%
Nitrogen Oxide (million tons)	5.09	4.75	4.00	4.05	3.53	3.61	3.71	3.83	3.89	3.92	3.92	3.94	3.95	3.97	3.97	3.99	4.00	4.02	4.02	4.04	4.06	4.06	4.08	4.10	4.12	4.12	-0.6%
Mercury (tons)	47.84	51.05	48.96	49.49	48.59	49.33	50.25	51.05	51.15	51.34	51.30	51.16	50.98	51.05	51.06	51.11	51.20	51.43	51.51	51.64	52.01	51.97	52.15	52.40	52.55	52.63	0.1%

1/ Includes electricity-only and combined heat and power (CHP) plants whose primary business is to sell electricity, or electricity and heat, to the public.
2/ Includes plants that only produce electricity.
3/ Includes electricity generation by fuel cells.
4/ Includes conventional hydroelectric, geothermal, wood, wood waste, municipal solid waste, landfill gas, other biomass, solar, and wind power.
5/ Includes combined heat and power plants whose primary business is to sell electricity and heat to the public (i.e., those that report NAICS code 22).
6/ Includes combined heat and power plants and electricity-only plants in the commercial and industrial sectors.
7/ Other gaseous fuels include refinery and still gas.
8/ Other includes batteries, chemicals, hydrogen, pitch, purchased steam, sulfur, and miscellaneous technologies.
9/ Other end-use generators include small on-site generating systems in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors used primarily for own-use generation, but which may also
sell some power to the grid.
10/ Prices represent average revenue per kilowatthour.
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2000 and 2001 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports.
Sources: 2000 and 2001 power only and combined heat and power generation, sales to utilities, net imports, residential, industrial, and total electricity sales, and emissions: Energy
Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review 2001, DOE/EIA-0384(2001) (Washington, DC, October 2002), and supporting databases. 2000 and 2001 commercial and
transportation electricity sales: EIA estimates based on Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Transportation Energy Data Book 21 (Oak Ridge, TN, September 2001). Prices: EIA, AEO2003
National Energy Modeling System run aeo2003.d110502c. 2001 and projections: EIA, AEO2003 National Energy Modeling System run aeo2003.d110502c.