Annual Energy Outlook 2003 with Projections to 2025
Reference Case

Table 7. Transportation Sector Key Indicators and Delivered Energy Consumption

Key Indicators and Consumption 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2001-
2025
                                                       
Key Indicators                                                      
Level of Travel (billions)                                                      
Light-Duty Vehicles less than 8500 pounds (VMT)
2355
2409
2494
2536
2582
2642
2708
2778
2852
2925
3004
3080
3156
3234
3307
3380
3452
3524
3600
3680
3753
3819
3890
3968
4052
4132
2.3%
Commercial Light Trucks (VMT) 1/
69
66
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
81
84
86
89
91
94
96
98
100
102
105
107
109
112
114
117
120
2.5%
Freight Trucks greater than 10000 pounds (VMT)
207
206
204
212
219
225
231
239
246
254
263
272
280
287
295
301
307
314
322
330
338
345
354
363
372
380
2.6%
Air (seat miles available)
1168
1109
1086
1073
1074
1110
1155
1199
1250
1305
1355
1408
1462
1519
1578
1636
1695
1756
1819
1882
1942
2002
2064
2127
2190
2256
3.0%
Rail (ton miles traveled)
1390
1448
1404
1432
1454
1475
1521
1563
1593
1628
1669
1718
1749
1776
1804
1833
1868
1900
1928
1963
1991
2015
2049
2083
2117
2155
1.7%
Domestic Shipping (ton miles traveled)
647
788
775
786
796
803
823
837
850
862
874
889
902
912
925
937
948
961
977
996
1009
1024
1042
1056
1072
1087
1.4%
                                                       
Energy Efficiency Indicators                                                      
New Light-Duty Vehicle (MPG) 2/
24.1
24.1
24.1
24.2
24.2
24.2
24.1
24.1
24.0
24.1
24.3
24.4
24.5
24.7
24.9
25.0
25.1
25.3
25.4
25.5
25.6
25.7
25.8
25.9
26.0
26.1
0.3%
New Car (MPG) 2/
28.2
28.1
28.1
28.3
28.4
28.3
28.2
28.2
28.3
28.3
28.5
28.7
28.7
28.9
29.2
29.3
29.3
29.5
29.6
29.6
29.8
29.9
29.9
30.0
30.0
30.1
0.3%
New Light Truck (MPG) 2/
20.6
20.7
20.7
20.8
20.8
20.9
20.8
20.8
20.7
20.8
21.0
21.2
21.3
21.5
21.7
21.8
22.0
22.1
22.2
22.3
22.5
22.6
22.7
22.8
22.9
23.0
0.4%
Light-Duty Fleet (MPG) 3/
20.1
19.8
19.7
19.7
19.6
19.5
19.5
19.4
19.4
19.3
19.3
19.3
19.3
19.3
19.4
19.4
19.5
19.6
19.7
19.7
19.8
19.9
20.0
20.0
20.1
20.2
0.1%
New Commercial Light Truck (MPG) 1/
13.9
13.8
13.8
13.8
13.8
13.9
13.8
13.8
13.7
13.7
13.9
14.0
14.1
14.2
14.3
14.4
14.5
14.6
14.7
14.8
14.8
14.9
15.0
15.1
15.1
15.2
0.4%
Stock Commercial Light Truck (MPG) 1/
13.6
13.7
13.8
13.8
13.9
13.9
13.9
13.9
13.8
13.8
13.8
13.8
13.9
13.9
13.9
14.0
14.1
14.1
14.2
14.3
14.4
14.4
14.5
14.6
14.7
14.8
0.3%
Aircraft Efficiency (seat miles per gallon)
50.8
51.2
51.5
51.8
52.2
52.5
52.7
53.1
53.4
53.9
54.3
54.7
55.1
55.5
55.9
56.3
56.8
57.2
57.7
58.1
58.6
59.0
59.4
59.8
60.3
60.7
0.7%
Freight Truck Efficiency (MPG)
5.9
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.1
6.1
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.3
6.3
6.4
6.4
6.4
6.4
6.5
0.3%
Rail Efficiency (ton miles per thousand Btu)
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.6
1.0%
Domestic Shipping Efficiency                                                      
(ton miles per thousand Btu)
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
0.2%
                                                       
Energy Use by Mode (quadrillion Btu)                                                      
Light-Duty Vehicles
14.95
15.28
15.74
16.07
16.40
16.83
17.30
17.80
18.32
18.84
19.36
19.85
20.32
20.78
21.20
21.60
21.98
22.34
22.72
23.12
23.47
23.80
24.15
24.54
24.96
25.36
2.1%
Commercial Light Trucks 1/
0.63
0.60
0.60
0.61
0.63
0.64
0.66
0.69
0.71
0.73
0.76
0.78
0.80
0.82
0.84
0.86
0.87
0.88
0.90
0.92
0.93
0.94
0.96
0.98
1.00
1.02
2.2%
Freight Trucks 4/
4.72
4.68
4.63
4.80
4.95
5.06
5.20
5.36
5.52
5.69
5.89
6.07
6.22
6.35
6.47
6.57
6.66
6.76
6.86
6.99
7.09
7.20
7.34
7.49
7.65
7.79
2.1%
Air 5/
3.62
3.47
3.41
3.39
3.38
3.46
3.56
3.65
3.76
3.87
3.97
4.08
4.19
4.31
4.43
4.55
4.67
4.79
4.91
5.03
5.14
5.25
5.37
5.49
5.60
5.72
2.1%
Rail 6/
0.61
0.63
0.61
0.62
0.62
0.63
0.64
0.65
0.66
0.67
0.68
0.69
0.70
0.70
0.71
0.71
0.72
0.73
0.73
0.74
0.75
0.75
0.76
0.76
0.77
0.78
0.9%
Marine 7/
1.46
1.45
1.40
1.43
1.44
1.44
1.45
1.46
1.47
1.48
1.49
1.50
1.51
1.52
1.53
1.54
1.54
1.55
1.57
1.58
1.59
1.60
1.61
1.62
1.63
1.64
0.5%
Pipeline Fuel
0.66
0.63
0.58
0.63
0.65
0.66
0.68
0.69
0.72
0.75
0.78
0.79
0.81
0.83
0.84
0.85
0.85
0.86
0.88
0.89
0.91
0.95
0.99
1.00
1.01
1.02
2.0%
Lubricants
0.18
0.19
0.20
0.20
0.21
0.20
0.20
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.23
0.23
0.24
0.24
0.25
0.25
0.26
0.26
0.26
0.26
0.27
0.27
0.28
1.5%
Total
26.83
26.94
27.16
27.75
28.28
28.93
29.71
30.53
31.39
32.27
33.17
34.02
34.82
35.58
36.30
36.96
37.59
38.22
38.88
39.58
40.20
40.83
41.52
42.22
42.99
43.70
2.0%
                                                       
Energy Use by Mode                                                      
(million barrels per day oil equivalent)                                                      
Light-Duty Vehicles
7.86
8.05
8.30
8.49
8.66
8.90
9.15
9.41
9.68
9.95
10.23
10.49
10.73
10.97
11.19
11.40
11.60
11.79
11.99
12.20
12.38
12.55
12.73
12.94
13.16
13.37
2.1%
Commercial Light Trucks 1/
0.33
0.32
0.31
0.32
0.33
0.34
0.35
0.36
0.37
0.38
0.40
0.41
0.42
0.43
0.44
0.45
0.46
0.47
0.47
0.48
0.49
0.50
0.51
0.52
0.53
0.54
2.2%
Freight Trucks
2.08
2.05
2.02
2.09
2.16
2.21
2.28
2.35
2.42
2.51
2.60
2.68
2.75
2.81
2.87
2.91
2.95
3.00
3.05
3.10
3.15
3.21
3.27
3.34
3.41
3.48
2.2%
Railroad
0.23
0.24
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.24
0.24
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.26
0.26
0.26
0.26
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.7%
Domestic Shipping
0.13
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.21
0.21
1.1%
International Shipping
0.37
0.34
0.32
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.34
0.34
0.34
0.34
0.34
0.34
0.34
0.34
0.34
0.0%
Air 5/
1.52
1.44
1.40
1.37
1.37
1.40
1.45
1.50
1.55
1.60
1.65
1.70
1.75
1.81
1.86
1.92
1.97
2.02
2.08
2.13
2.18
2.24
2.29
2.34
2.39
2.45
2.2%
Military Use
0.28
0.30
0.31
0.33
0.34
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.34
0.34
0.34
0.34
0.34
0.34
0.35
0.35
0.36
0.36
0.37
0.37
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.39
0.39
0.40
1.2%
Bus Transportation
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.4%
Rail Transportation 6/
0.05
0.05
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.08
1.8%
Recreational Boats
0.17
0.16
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.9%
Lubricants
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
1.5%
Pipeline Fuel
0.33
0.32
0.29
0.32
0.33
0.34
0.34
0.35
0.37
0.38
0.39
0.40
0.41
0.42
0.42
0.43
0.43
0.43
0.44
0.45
0.46
0.48
0.50
0.50
0.51
0.52
2.0%
Total
13.56
13.64
13.78
14.09
14.36
14.70
15.09
15.50
15.94
16.38
16.84
17.26
17.67
18.05
18.41
18.75
19.06
19.38
19.71
20.07
20.38
20.69
21.03
21.39
21.77
22.13
2.0%

1/ Commercial trucks 8,500 to 10,000 pounds.
2/ Environmental Protection Agency rated miles per gallon.
3/ Combined car and light truck "on-the-road" estimate.
4/ Includes energy use by buses and military distillate consumption.
5/ Includes jet fuel and aviation gasoline.
6/ Includes passenger rail.
7/ Includes military residual fuel use and recreation boats.
Btu = British thermal unit.
VMT = Vehicle miles traveled.
MPG = Miles per gallon.
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2000 and 2001 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports.
Sources: 2000 and 2001: Energy Information Administration (EIA),Natural Gas Annual 2000, DOE/EIA-0131(2000) (Washington, DC, November 2001); Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics 2000 (Washington, DC, November 2001); Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 22 and Annual (Oak Ridge, TN, September 2002); National Highway Traffic and Safety Administration, Summary of Fuel Economy Performance (Washington, DC, February 2000); EIA, Household Vehicle Energy Consumption 1994, DOE/EIA-0464(94) (Washington, DC, August 1997); U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, "Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey," EC97TV (Washington, DC, October 1999); EIA, Describing Current and Potential Markets for Alternative-Fuel Vehicles, DOE/EIA-0604(96) (Washington, DC, March 1996); EIA, Alternatives to Traditional Transportation Fuels 1998, http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/alt_trans98/table1.html; and EIA, State Energy Data Report 1999, DOE/EIA-0214(99) (Washington, DC, May 2001); U.S. Department of Transportation, Research and Special Programs Administration, Air Carrier Statistics Monthly, December 2001/2000 (Washington, DC, 2001); EIA, Fuel Oil and Kerosene Sales 2001, http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/fuel_oil_and_kerosene_sales/historical/foks.html; and United States Department of Defense, Defense Fuel Supply Center. Projections: EIA, AEO2003 National Energy Modeling System run aeo2003.d110502c.