Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025-Table 20. Macroeconomic Indicators

Annual Energy Outlook 2003 with Projections to 2025
Reference Case

Table 20. Macroeconomic Indicators
(Billion 1996 Chain-Weighted Dollars, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Indicators	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2001- 2025

GDP Chain-Type Price Index
(1996=1.000)	1.069	1.094	1.109	1.140	1.169	1.195	1.219	1.242	1.264	1.288	1.313	1.342	1.375	1.410	1.447	1.486	1.527	1.570	1.615	1.660	1.708	1.757	1.810	1.864	1.921	1.981	2.5%

Real Gross Domestic Product	9191	9215	9440	9743	10074	10361	10667	11017	11408	11810	12258	12671	13082	13480	13893	14288	14681	15101	15540	16013	16450	16888	17363	17858	18389	18917	3.0%
Real Consumption	6224	6377	6572	6742	6928	7151	7379	7615	7860	8123	8412	8683	8964	9244	9535	9826	10112	10405	10710	11049	11351	11649	11965	12306	12674	13012	3.0%
Real Investment	1763	1575	1586	1688	1819	1888	1960	2085	2222	2348	2499	2645	2779	2901	3034	3151	3256	3368	3487	3627	3755	3880	4026	4173	4333	4492	4.5%
Real Government Spending	1583	1640	1709	1751	1778	1790	1810	1829	1849	1870	1895	1911	1935	1964	1994	2026	2059	2094	2129	2167	2212	2247	2289	2333	2380	2429	1.6%
Real Exports	1137	1076	1063	1148	1227	1287	1378	1459	1556	1669	1784	1902	2021	2151	2287	2426	2575	2750	2947	3150	3360	3588	3838	4104	4382	4695	6.3%
Real Imports	1536	1492	1539	1630	1714	1788	1889	1992	2085	2188	2301	2418	2550	2702	2868	3044	3218	3394	3593	3825	4059	4283	4533	4813	5114	5398	5.5%

Real Disposable Personal Income	6630	6748	7047	7161	7249	7421	7626	7848	8094	8350	8637	8905	9181	9467	9779	10087	10395	10712	11043	11400	11713	12003	12318	12676	13061	13435	2.9%

AA Utility Bond Rate (percent)	7.91	7.43	6.90	6.93	8.08	8.10	7.77	7.59	7.42	7.27	7.24	7.24	7.26	7.55	7.85	8.05	8.37	8.64	8.95	9.10	9.18	9.28	9.40	9.50	9.57	9.63	N/A

Real Yield on Government 10 Year
Bonds (percent)	4.85	3.51	3.72	4.06	5.34	5.10	5.12	5.25	5.39	5.30	5.26	5.18	5.11	5.29	5.52	5.69	5.97	6.15	6.38	6.49	6.56	6.65	6.69	6.72	6.75	6.76	N/A
Real Utility Bond Rate (percent)	6.32	5.45	4.95	4.74	5.83	5.61	5.54	5.57	5.51	5.42	5.35	5.22	5.05	5.15	5.30	5.42	5.68	5.89	6.15	6.27	6.32	6.43	6.48	6.54	6.53	6.56	N/A

Energy Intensity
(thousand Btu per 1996 dollar of GDP)
Delivered Energy	7.91	7.74	7.65	7.59	7.46	7.36	7.28	7.19	7.08	6.98	6.87	6.77	6.68	6.58	6.48	6.39	6.30	6.20	6.11	6.02	5.94	5.87	5.79	5.71	5.63	5.55	-1.4%
Total Energy	10.82	10.57	10.34	10.26	10.10	9.96	9.86	9.74	9.58	9.42	9.24	9.10	8.96	8.81	8.67	8.54	8.41	8.28	8.15	8.02	7.92	7.80	7.70	7.58	7.47	7.36	-1.5%

Consumer Price Index (1982-4=1.00)	1.72	1.77	1.80	1.86	1.92	1.97	2.01	2.05	2.10	2.14	2.19	2.24	2.30	2.36	2.43	2.50	2.58	2.66	2.75	2.83	2.93	3.02	3.13	3.23	3.35	3.47	2.8%

Unemployment Rate (percent)	4.02	4.79	5.90	6.00	5.51	5.57	5.63	5.42	5.08	4.83	4.41	4.15	4.32	4.60	4.71	4.88	5.05	5.28	5.56	5.69	5.89	6.05	5.95	5.95	5.77	5.77	0.8%

Housing Starts (millions)	1.82	1.80	1.84	1.81	1.88	1.90	1.94	2.02	2.08	2.09	2.17	2.21	2.10	2.04	2.02	1.99	1.95	1.92	1.89	1.92	1.92	1.93	1.96	1.98	2.01	2.02	0.5%
Single-Family	1.23	1.27	1.33	1.27	1.25	1.22	1.24	1.27	1.29	1.30	1.34	1.35	1.28	1.24	1.22	1.19	1.16	1.14	1.11	1.12	1.12	1.11	1.12	1.12	1.12	1.12	-0.5%
Multifamily	0.34	0.33	0.31	0.28	0.33	0.34	0.35	0.39	0.42	0.43	0.47	0.48	0.47	0.46	0.46	0.46	0.46	0.46	0.46	0.48	0.48	0.49	0.52	0.53	0.56	0.57	2.3%
Mobile Home Shipments	0.25	0.19	0.20	0.25	0.30	0.34	0.36	0.36	0.36	0.36	0.37	0.37	0.35	0.35	0.34	0.34	0.33	0.33	0.32	0.32	0.32	0.33	0.33	0.33	0.33	0.33	2.3%

Commercial Floorspace, Total
(billion square feet)	68.5	70.2	71.9	73.5	74.9	76.1	77.2	78.3	79.4	80.5	81.8	83.1	84.4	85.7	86.9	88.2	89.5	90.7	92.0	93.3	94.6	96.0	97.3	98.6	99.8	101.1	1.5%

Value of Shipments (billion 1996 dollars)
Total Industrial	5719	5425	5332	5545	5758	5882	6060	6277	6480	6704	6959	7198	7430	7634	7853	8029	8185	8362	8551	8769	8963	9161	9401	9636	9904	10126	2.6%
Non-Manufacturing	1341	1346	1329	1320	1334	1340	1358	1402	1441	1471	1505	1542	1573	1589	1614	1636	1652	1669	1687	1715	1743	1767	1793	1814	1841	1869	1.4%
Manufacturing	4378	4079	4003	4225	4423	4542	4702	4875	5039	5233	5453	5656	5857	6046	6238	6393	6533	6693	6865	7054	7220	7394	7608	7822	8063	8257	3.0%
Energy Intensive	1113	1086	1085	1115	1131	1141	1153	1174	1195	1223	1256	1286	1309	1327	1345	1360	1374	1391	1410	1430	1446	1461	1479	1496	1516	1532	1.4%
Non-Intensive	3264	2993	2918	3110	3292	3402	3549	3701	3844	4010	4197	4370	4547	4719	4893	5033	5159	5302	5455	5625	5774	5933	6129	6326	6547	6725	3.4%

Unit Sales Light-Duty Vehicles (million)	17.36	17.11	16.65	17.08	17.12	16.50	16.92	17.39	17.37	17.59	18.27	18.45	18.54	18.79	19.34	19.77	19.91	19.91	19.80	19.99	19.91	19.67	19.78	19.76	20.08	19.97	0.6%

Millions of People
Population with Armed Forces Overseas	275.7	278.2	280.7	283.2	285.6	288.1	290.5	293.0	295.4	297.8	300.2	302.7	305.1	307.6	310.1	312.7	315.2	317.7	320.3	322.8	325.3	327.9	330.4	333.0	335.6	338.2	0.8%
Population (aged 16 and over)	213.1	215.4	217.8	220.1	222.4	224.8	227.3	229.7	232.1	234.4	236.6	238.7	240.7	242.7	244.7	246.7	248.7	250.6	252.6	254.5	256.5	258.5	260.4	262.5	264.5	266.6	0.9%
Employment, Non-Agriculture	131.3	131.7	130.8	132.6	135.3	137.0	138.6	140.7	142.9	144.7	147.1	149.3	150.5	151.5	152.8	154.0	155.1	156.0	157.0	158.1	159.2	160.0	161.4	162.7	164.4	165.9	1.0%
Employment, Manufacturing	18.3	17.5	16.6	16.8	17.2	17.4	17.4	17.6	17.7	17.7	17.9	18.1	18.1	17.9	17.7	17.5	17.3	17.2	17.2	17.2	17.3	17.4	17.5	17.7	18.0	18.4	0.2%
Labor Force	140.9	141.8	142.6	144.7	146.8	148.7	150.5	152.2	153.7	155.2	156.5	157.6	158.8	160.4	162.2	163.9	165.3	166.3	167.1	168.3	169.8	170.9	172.4	173.9	175.8	177.4	0.9%

GDP = Gross domestic product.
Btu = British thermal unit.
N/A = Not applicable.
Sources: 2000 and 2001: Global Insight macroeconomic model CTL0802. Projections: Energy Information Administration, AEO2003 National Energy Modeling System run aeo2003.d110502c.