Annual Energy Outlook 2003 with Projections to 2025
Reference Case

Table 19. Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source
(Million Metric Tons Carbon Equivalent, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Sector and Source
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2001-
2025
                                                       
Residential                                                      
Petroleum
27.5
27.2
27.6
28.5
28.4
28.3
28.3
28.2
28.1
27.8
27.6
27.4
27.2
27.0
26.7
26.5
26.4
26.2
26.0
25.8
25.7
25.5
25.4
25.3
25.3
25.1
-0.3%
Natural Gas
73.7
71.1
72.7
76.7
78.1
78.5
79.4
80.0
80.8
81.0
81.5
82.0
82.7
83.1
83.7
84.3
85.1
85.6
86.4
87.2
88.2
88.8
89.7
90.6
91.6
92.1
1.1%
Coal
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4%
Electricity
215.4
215.1
209.3
214.0
218.6
222.4
228.2
233.3
237.5
239.8
242.7
244.8
247.2
248.6
250.6
254.4
257.8
260.3
263.0
266.2
269.4
271.1
274.2
277.6
281.5
285.2
1.2%
Total
317.0
313.8
309.9
319.6
325.4
329.6
336.3
341.9
346.8
349.0
352.1
354.5
357.5
359.1
361.4
365.6
369.7
372.4
375.8
379.6
383.7
385.7
389.6
393.8
398.7
402.8
1.0%
                                                       
Commercial                                                      
Petroleum
14.0
14.0
12.6
12.2
12.5
12.6
12.8
12.9
12.9
13.0
13.1
13.1
13.2
13.2
13.3
13.3
13.3
13.4
13.4
13.4
13.4
13.4
13.5
13.5
13.5
13.5
-0.2%
Natural Gas
47.5
48.0
47.9
50.0
51.4
52.2
52.9
53.4
53.9
54.3
54.7
55.2
55.7
56.4
57.0
57.6
58.4
59.1
60.0
60.9
61.7
62.6
63.4
64.2
64.9
65.6
1.3%
Coal
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.8
0.7%
Electricity
209.6
214.5
208.8
208.7
214.6
220.2
227.3
233.5
238.2
242.6
247.0
251.6
255.7
260.5
265.0
271.0
276.2
281.9
287.3
293.2
298.4
303.7
309.5
315.5
321.1
328.0
1.8%
Total
273.5
278.8
271.6
273.3
280.8
287.3
295.4
302.3
307.5
312.3
317.2
322.4
327.2
332.7
337.8
344.5
350.5
357.0
363.3
370.2
376.2
382.4
389.1
395.9
402.3
409.9
1.6%
                                                       
Industrial 1/                                                      
Petroleum
96.0
97.9
92.0
91.9
93.4
93.3
94.0
95.2
96.2
97.5
98.6
99.3
100.1
101.3
102.1
102.1
103.0
104.0
104.7
105.7
106.5
107.2
108.0
108.7
109.6
110.4
0.5%
Natural Gas 2/
133.2
123.4
134.1
136.3
136.3
137.0
139.6
141.5
143.0
145.5
149.0
152.4
154.8
156.1
158.0
160.0
161.0
162.6
164.9
167.3
169.4
172.2
175.7
178.0
180.9
183.4
1.7%
Coal
56.0
52.1
51.1
53.1
53.7
53.9
54.2
54.7
55.6
55.8
56.2
56.5
56.6
56.7
56.7
56.6
56.4
56.3
56.2
56.3
56.1
56.1
56.1
56.1
56.1
56.1
0.3%
Electricity
192.3
178.1
157.9
163.5
167.8
170.3
175.6
181.4
186.3
189.8
194.3
198.3
201.4
204.3
206.9
210.0
212.1
215.0
217.6
220.9
223.1
225.4
228.9
232.4
236.1
240.0
1.3%
Total
477.4
451.5
435.1
444.9
451.2
454.5
463.4
472.8
481.1
488.6
498.1
506.4
513.0
518.5
523.8
528.7
532.6
537.9
543.4
550.2
555.2
560.9
568.6
575.2
582.7
589.9
1.1%
                                                       
Transportation                                                      
Petroleum 3/
496.7
501.4
507.2
516.9
526.1
538.2
552.7
567.9
583.6
599.8
616.4
632.1
646.8
661.0
674.4
686.8
698.5
710.3
722.5
735.6
746.9
758.0
770.3
783.5
797.8
811.0
2.0%
Natural Gas 4/
9.7
9.2
8.6
9.4
9.8
10.0
10.3
10.6
11.1
11.6
12.1
12.4
12.8
13.0
13.2
13.4
13.6
13.7
14.0
14.2
14.5
15.1
15.7
15.9
16.2
16.3
2.4%
Other 5/
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
N/A
Electricity
3.8
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.9
4.0
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.9
5.0
5.2
5.3
5.5
5.6
5.8
5.9
6.1
6.3
6.5
6.6
6.8
2.4%
Total
510.2
514.5
519.5
530.1
539.8
552.2
567.1
582.8
599.1
615.8
633.0
649.2
664.4
678.9
692.7
705.4
717.3
729.4
742.1
755.6
767.3
779.2
792.3
805.9
820.6
834.2
2.0%
                                                       
Total by Delivered Fuel                                                      
Petroleum 3/
634.3
640.5
639.4
649.5
660.4
672.4
687.8
704.1
720.8
738.1
755.7
771.9
787.4
802.5
816.5
828.7
841.2
853.9
866.6
880.5
892.6
904.2
917.1
931.0
946.2
960.1
1.7%
Natural Gas
264.1
251.7
263.2
272.5
275.6
277.7
282.2
285.6
288.8
292.3
297.2
301.9
306.1
308.6
311.9
315.3
318.1
321.0
325.2
329.7
333.8
338.7
344.5
348.7
353.6
357.5
1.5%
Coal
58.7
54.7
53.8
55.9
56.3
56.6
56.9
57.5
58.4
58.6
59.0
59.3
59.5
59.6
59.7
59.5
59.4
59.3
59.2
59.3
59.2
59.1
59.1
59.2
59.3
59.3
0.3%
Other 5/
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
N/A
Electricity
621.1
611.6
579.7
590.1
604.9
616.9
635.3
652.5
666.4
676.6
688.5
699.4
709.1
718.4
727.6
740.6
751.5
762.7
773.5
786.0
796.9
806.2
818.9
832.0
845.3
860.1
1.4%
Total
1578.2
1558.6
1536.2
1567.9
1597.2
1623.7
1662.3
1699.7
1734.5
1765.8
1800.5
1832.6
1862.1
1889.2
1915.7
1944.2
1970.2
1996.8
2024.6
2055.5
2082.5
2108.3
2139.7
2170.8
2204.3
2236.9
1.5%
                                                       
Electric Power Sector 6/                                                      
Petroleum
24.5
27.5
7.9
6.6
7.3
7.2
7.4
7.6
8.5
8.0
8.8
8.9
9.4
9.5
9.9
9.8
10.1
9.9
9.6
9.5
9.7
10.2
9.5
9.8
10.7
10.9
-3.8%
Natural Gas
76.5
77.7
77.3
79.9
83.8
83.5
84.5
84.5
92.5
96.8
99.9
104.1
109.5
112.6
115.9
117.5
121.5
124.0
128.9
133.0
137.8
142.5
147.3
150.2
154.6
155.0
2.9%
Coal
520.1
506.4
494.6
503.6
513.8
526.3
543.5
560.5
565.4
571.8
579.9
586.4
590.3
596.3
601.8
613.3
619.8
628.7
634.9
643.6
649.5
653.6
662.1
672.0
680.0
694.2
1.3%
Total
621.1
611.6
579.7
590.1
604.9
616.9
635.3
652.5
666.4
676.6
688.5
699.4
709.1
718.4
727.6
740.6
751.5
762.7
773.5
786.0
796.9
806.2
818.9
832.0
845.3
860.1
1.4%
                                                       
Total by Primary Fuel 7/                                                      
Petroleum 3/
658.8
668.0
647.3
656.1
667.7
679.6
695.2
711.7
729.3
746.2
764.5
780.8
796.8
812.0
826.4
838.5
851.4
863.8
876.3
890.0
902.2
914.4
926.6
940.8
956.9
971.0
1.6%
Natural Gas
340.7
329.4
340.5
352.3
359.4
361.2
366.7
370.1
381.3
389.2
397.1
406.0
415.5
421.3
427.8
432.9
439.6
444.9
454.1
462.7
471.6
481.2
491.8
498.9
508.1
512.5
1.9%
Coal
578.7
561.1
548.4
559.4
570.2
582.9
600.4
618.0
623.9
630.4
638.9
645.7
649.8
655.9
661.5
672.8
679.2
688.0
694.2
702.8
708.7
712.7
721.3
731.2
739.3
753.4
1.2%
Other 5/
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
N/A
Total
1578.2
1558.6
1536.2
1567.9
1597.2
1623.7
1662.3
1699.7
1734.5
1765.8
1800.5
1832.6
1862.1
1889.2
1915.7
1944.2
1970.2
1996.8
2024.6
2055.5
2082.5
2108.3
2139.7
2170.8
2204.3
2236.9
1.5%
                                                       
Carbon Dioxide Emissions (tons                                                      
carbon equivalent per person)
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.6
5.7
5.8
5.9
5.9
6.0
6.1
6.1
6.1
6.2
6.2
6.3
6.3
6.3
6.4
6.4
6.4
6.5
6.5
6.6
6.6
0.7%

1/ Fuel consumption includes energy for combined heat and power plants, except those plants whose primary business is to sell electricity, or electricity and heat, to the public.
2/ Includes lease and plant fuel.
3/ This includes international bunker fuel, which by convention are excluded from the international accounting of carbon dioxide emissions. In the years from 1990 through 2000, international bunker fuels accounted for 24 to 30 million metric tons carbon equivalent of carbon dioxide annually.
4/ Includes pipeline fuel natural gas and compressed natural gas used as vehicle fuel.
5/ Includes methanol and liquid hydrogen.
6/ Includes electricity-only and combined heat and power (CHP) plants whose primary business is to sell electricity, or electricity and heat, to the public. Does not include emissions from the nonbiogenic component of municipal solid waste because under international guidelines these are accounted for as waste, not energy.
7/ Emissions from the electric power sector are distributed to the primary fuels.
N/A = Not applicable.
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2000 and 2001 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports.
Sources: 2000 and 2001 emissions and emission factors: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 2001,
DOE/EIA-0573(2001) (Washington, DC, December 2002). Projections: EIA, AEO2003 National Energy Modeling System run aeo2003.d110502c.