Annual Energy Outlook 2003 with Projections to 2025
Reference Case

Table 17. Renewable Energy Generating Capacity and Generation
(Gigawatts, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Capacity and Generation
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2001-
2025
                                                       
Electric Power Sector 1/                                                      
Net Summer Capacity                                                      
Conventional Hydropower
78.23
78.36
78.53
78.65
78.74
78.80
78.94
78.94
78.94
78.94
78.92
78.92
78.92
78.92
78.92
78.92
78.92
78.92
78.92
78.92
78.92
78.92
78.92
78.92
78.92
78.92
0.0%
Geothermal 2/
2.85
2.86
2.86
2.87
2.83
3.03
3.13
3.32
3.39
3.46
3.54
3.70
3.74
3.87
3.97
4.08
4.26
4.31
4.41
4.67
5.00
5.12
5.20
5.27
5.46
5.64
2.9%
Municipal Solid Waste 3/
3.10
3.25
3.41
3.50
3.53
3.78
3.83
3.86
3.90
3.98
4.03
4.07
4.11
4.15
4.18
4.22
4.26
4.28
4.31
4.34
4.37
4.37
4.37
4.37
4.37
4.37
1.2%
Wood and Other Biomass 4/
1.67
1.77
1.84
1.87
1.94
2.01
2.03
2.05
2.05
2.07
2.07
2.09
2.10
2.12
2.13
2.14
2.15
2.16
2.16
2.17
2.18
2.18
2.32
2.42
2.60
2.78
1.9%
Solar Thermal
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.34
0.42
0.43
0.43
0.43
0.43
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.45
0.45
0.46
0.46
0.46
0.47
0.47
0.48
0.48
0.48
0.49
0.49
0.50
1.7%
Solar Photovoltaic 5/
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.05
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.10
0.12
0.13
0.15
0.16
0.18
0.20
0.22
0.23
0.25
0.27
0.29
0.30
0.32
0.34
0.36
13.9%
Wind
2.45
4.29
4.99
6.75
6.75
7.24
7.58
7.85
7.95
8.38
8.47
8.73
8.93
9.34
9.64
10.06
10.20
10.55
10.61
10.91
11.05
11.29
11.43
11.76
11.86
12.00
4.4%
Total
88.64
90.88
91.99
93.99
94.15
95.33
95.99
96.51
96.74
97.36
97.57
98.05
98.37
98.98
99.46
100.05
100.44
100.89
101.11
101.73
102.25
102.63
103.01
103.54
104.04
104.56
0.6%
                                                       
Generation (billion kilowatthours)                                                      
Conventional Hydropower
271.03
213.82
258.60
296.33
301.66
301.77
302.12
302.22
302.12
302.05
301.89
301.70
301.62
301.57
301.51
301.41
301.34
301.26
301.21
301.12
301.05
301.10
301.16
301.22
301.28
301.34
1.4%
Geothermal 2/
14.09
13.81
13.78
13.85
13.97
15.31
16.44
17.81
18.63
19.16
19.81
20.98
21.42
22.54
23.45
24.33
25.71
26.11
27.09
29.18
31.78
32.70
33.41
34.08
35.48
36.92
4.2%
Municipal Solid Waste 3/
20.05
19.55
23.91
24.72
25.04
27.01
27.38
27.62
27.87
28.55
28.88
29.19
29.46
29.73
29.99
30.26
30.53
30.74
30.94
31.13
31.34
31.40
31.41
31.42
31.44
31.49
2.0%
Wood and Other Biomass 4/
9.17
9.38
12.69
12.86
14.58
18.14
19.48
19.44
20.04
20.47
21.27
21.77
21.86
22.10
22.22
22.28
22.12
22.02
21.95
21.98
21.88
21.92
22.34
22.96
23.82
24.66
4.1%
Dedicated Plants
8.36
7.67
10.08
10.38
10.91
11.56
11.76
12.04
12.25
12.34
12.41
12.50
12.58
12.70
12.79
12.86
12.94
12.99
13.03
13.08
13.12
13.13
13.70
14.31
15.36
16.47
3.2%
Cofiring
0.81
1.71
2.61
2.48
3.66
6.58
7.72
7.40
7.79
8.13
8.85
9.27
9.28
9.40
9.43
9.41
9.19
9.03
8.91
8.91
8.76
8.79
8.64
8.65
8.47
8.19
6.7%
Solar Thermal
0.49
0.49
0.51
0.52
0.52
0.67
0.71
0.75
0.76
0.76
0.77
0.78
0.79
0.81
0.82
0.83
0.84
0.86
0.87
0.88
0.90
0.91
0.93
0.94
0.95
0.97
2.9%
Solar Photovoltaic 5/
0.00
0.00
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.15
0.18
0.21
0.24
0.28
0.32
0.36
0.40
0.44
0.49
0.53
0.58
0.62
0.66
0.71
0.75
0.80
0.84
0.88
26.7%
Wind
5.59
5.78
12.16
16.70
18.02
19.28
20.53
21.50
21.82
23.21
23.62
24.49
25.19
26.52
27.66
29.14
29.64
30.84
31.20
32.21
32.70
33.65
34.14
35.35
35.69
36.21
7.9%
Total
320.43
262.85
321.69
365.05
373.86
382.28
386.79
389.51
391.41
394.43
396.47
399.19
400.67
403.62
406.04
408.69
410.67
412.36
413.83
417.14
420.31
422.39
424.14
426.76
429.51
432.48
2.1%
                                                       
End Use Sector                                                      
Net Summer Capacity                                                      
Combined Heat and Power 6/                                                      
Municipal Solid Waste
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.0%
Biomass
4.41
4.41
4.41
4.64
4.83
4.96
5.07
5.22
5.39
5.61
5.88
6.12
6.33
6.52
6.72
6.89
7.04
7.21
7.39
7.59
7.76
7.92
8.12
8.31
8.52
8.71
2.9%
Total
4.69
4.69
4.69
4.93
5.11
5.24
5.35
5.51
5.67
5.89
6.16
6.40
6.61
6.80
7.00
7.17
7.33
7.49
7.68
7.87
8.04
8.20
8.40
8.59
8.80
9.00
2.7%
Other End-Use Generators 7/                                                      
Conventional Hydropower 8/
1.09
1.09
1.09
1.09
1.09
1.09
1.09
1.09
1.09
1.09
1.09
1.09
1.09
1.09
1.09
1.09
1.09
1.09
1.09
1.09
1.09
1.09
1.09
1.09
1.09
1.09
0.0%
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
N/A
Solar Photovoltaic
0.01
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.11
0.14
0.18
0.24
0.30
0.38
0.39
0.40
0.40
0.42
0.44
0.47
0.50
0.53
0.56
0.62
0.68
0.74
0.80
0.87
0.93
16.5%
Total
1.11
1.12
1.13
1.15
1.17
1.20
1.24
1.28
1.33
1.40
1.47
1.48
1.49
1.50
1.51
1.54
1.56
1.59
1.62
1.65
1.71
1.77
1.83
1.90
1.96
2.03
2.5%
                                                       
Generation (billion kilowatthours)                                                      
Combined Heat and Power 6/                                                      
Municipal Solid Waste
2.50
2.46
2.15
2.15
2.15
2.15
2.15
2.15
2.15
2.15
2.15
2.15
2.15
2.15
2.15
2.15
2.15
2.15
2.15
2.15
2.15
2.15
2.15
2.15
2.15
2.15
-0.6%
Biomass
28.68
28.67
28.68
30.05
31.10
31.89
32.53
33.43
34.38
35.68
37.23
38.66
39.86
40.98
42.15
43.15
44.05
45.03
46.10
47.21
48.21
49.18
50.31
51.44
52.65
53.80
2.7%
Total
31.18
31.13
30.83
32.20
33.25
34.04
34.68
35.58
36.53
37.83
39.38
40.81
42.01
43.13
44.30
45.30
46.20
47.18
48.25
49.36
50.36
51.33
52.47
53.59
54.80
55.95
2.5%
Other End-Use Generators 7/                                                      
Conventional Hydropower 8/
4.23
4.23
4.23
4.23
4.23
4.23
4.23
4.23
4.23
4.23
4.23
4.23
4.23
4.23
4.23
4.23
4.23
4.23
4.23
4.23
4.23
4.23
4.23
4.23
4.23
4.23
0.0%
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
N/A
Solar Photovoltaic
0.01
0.02
0.09
0.12
0.17
0.23
0.31
0.40
0.51
0.65
0.82
0.83
0.86
0.87
0.90
0.96
1.02
1.08
1.14
1.20
1.33
1.45
1.58
1.71
1.85
1.98
22.1%
Total
4.24
4.25
4.32
4.35
4.40
4.46
4.54
4.63
4.74
4.88
5.05
5.07
5.09
5.11
5.14
5.19
5.25
5.31
5.38
5.44
5.57
5.69
5.82
5.95
6.09
6.22
1.6%


1/ Includes electricity-only and combined heat and power (CHP) plants whose primary business is to sell electricity, or electricity and heat, to the public.
2/ Includes hydrothermal resources only (hot water and steam).
3/ Includes landfill gas.
4/ Includes projections for energy crops after 2010.
5/ Does not include off-grid photovoltaics (PV). EIA estimates that another 76 megawatts of remote electricity generation PV applications were in service in 1999, plus an additional
205 megawatts in communications, transportation, and assorted other non-grid-connected applications.
6/ Includes combined heat and power plants and electricity-only plants in the commercial and industrial sectors.
7/ Includes small on-site generating systems in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors used primarily for own-use generation, but which may also sell some power to the grid.
8/ Represents own-use industrial hydroelectric power.
N/A = Not applicable.
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2000 and 2001 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports. Net summer capacity has been estimated for nonutility generators for AEO2003. Net summer capacity is used to be consistent with electric utility capacity estimates. Additional retirements are determined on the basis of the size and age of the units.
Sources: 2000 and 2001 capacity: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Form EIA-860: "Annual Electric Generator Report" (preliminary). 2000 and 2001 generation: EIA, Annual Energy Review 2001, DOE/EIA-0384(2001) (Washington, DC, October 2002). Projections: EIA, AEO2003 National Energy Modeling System run aeo2003.d110502c.