Annual Energy Outlook 2003 with Projections to 2025
Reference Case

Table 12. Petroleum Product Prices
(2001 Cents per Gallon, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Sector and Fuel 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2001-
2025
                                                       
World Oil Price (2001 dollars per barrel)
28.35
22.01
23.33
25.83
24.05
23.27
23.43
23.57
23.71
23.85
23.99
24.14
24.28
24.42
24.57
24.72
24.87
25.02
25.18
25.33
25.48
25.70
25.92
26.14
26.35
26.57
0.8%
                                                       
Delivered Sector Product Prices                                                      
                                                       
Residential                                                      
Distillate Fuel
134.1
124.6
112.8
125.9
117.0
109.4
108.3
108.3
108.9
109.4
110.4
111.6
112.5
113.8
116.0
116.0
116.5
116.4
117.9
120.1
121.0
121.7
122.3
122.9
123.3
123.8
0.0%
Liquefied Petroleum Gas
118.8
127.3
109.2
112.9
118.3
117.5
114.7
116.8
117.4
117.8
120.2
120.9
121.1
121.7
122.2
122.8
123.2
123.3
123.7
124.2
124.5
125.1
125.5
126.1
126.8
127.3
0.0%
                                                       
Commercial                                                      
Distillate Fuel
100.8
88.7
84.4
90.2
79.7
77.3
76.3
76.3
77.0
77.5
78.4
79.8
80.7
82.1
84.3
84.4
85.0
85.6
87.0
89.3
90.0
91.0
91.5
92.5
93.0
93.7
0.2%
Residual Fuel
52.9
51.8
62.1
66.0
60.0
58.5
58.8
59.1
59.5
59.6
60.0
60.4
60.7
61.1
61.4
61.7
62.0
62.3
62.6
63.0
63.3
63.8
64.2
64.7
65.1
65.6
1.0%
Residual Fuel (2001 dollars per barrel)
22.22
21.75
26.06
27.72
25.21
24.59
24.70
24.82
24.98
25.05
25.21
25.36
25.51
25.64
25.79
25.92
26.06
26.18
26.30
26.44
26.57
26.78
26.98
27.17
27.36
27.55
1.0%
                                                       
Industrial 1/                                                      
Distillate Fuel
102.4
90.8
85.2
91.1
80.4
77.9
77.0
77.1
77.9
78.5
79.4
81.4
82.2
84.1
86.5
87.1
87.9
89.8
91.4
93.7
94.3
96.1
97.4
98.8
99.6
100.6
0.4%
Liquefied Petroleum Gas
103.2
105.9
70.3
74.0
80.8
80.0
77.1
79.1
79.6
79.9
82.2
82.9
83.2
83.9
84.5
85.0
85.4
85.7
86.0
86.5
86.8
87.3
87.6
88.1
88.8
89.3
-0.7%
Residual Fuel
50.0
49.1
57.7
61.9
55.7
53.8
54.2
54.5
55.0
55.2
55.5
55.8
56.2
56.5
56.9
57.2
57.6
57.9
58.2
58.6
58.9
59.4
59.9
60.4
60.9
61.4
0.9%
Residual Fuel (2001 dollars per barrel)
21.02
20.61
24.23
26.00
23.38
22.60
22.77
22.91
23.09
23.17
23.32
23.44
23.60
23.74
23.89
24.03
24.18
24.32
24.45
24.60
24.74
24.95
25.16
25.36
25.56
25.77
0.9%
                                                       
Transportation                                                      
Diesel Fuel (Distillate) 2/
152.4
139.4
129.1
138.0
133.2
129.8
132.5
139.7
138.4
140.3
141.7
143.1
141.4
139.7
139.0
139.9
140.2
140.9
141.7
141.5
140.9
142.7
144.0
145.0
145.1
145.9
0.2%
Jet Fuel 3/
98.0
83.7
79.7
85.5
78.4
75.8
74.1
75.1
75.3
75.7
75.9
77.8
78.0
79.2
80.4
81.4
81.7
83.0
84.2
85.3
85.4
87.1
88.7
89.6
89.9
90.7
0.3%
Motor Gasoline 4/
154.1
143.3
135.7
143.4
141.0
140.0
141.0
141.3
141.5
142.5
142.8
141.4
141.1
140.3
140.6
140.4
140.8
142.9
143.5
143.6
143.7
143.5
143.9
145.3
146.2
149.6
0.2%
Liquefied Petroleum Gas
141.1
145.2
127.2
130.8
128.8
127.7
125.4
126.9
127.7
128.0
130.5
131.5
130.9
131.5
132.1
132.6
132.8
132.7
132.7
132.9
133.0
133.1
132.8
133.2
134.1
134.1
-0.3%
Residual Fuel
67.0
58.4
55.8
60.0
53.6
51.7
52.0
52.3
52.6
52.9
53.2
53.5
53.8
54.1
54.5
54.8
55.1
55.4
55.8
56.1
56.4
56.9
57.5
57.9
58.4
58.9
0.0%
Residual Fuel (2001 dollars per barrel)
28.14
24.52
23.45
25.19
22.50
21.70
21.85
21.97
22.10
22.22
22.35
22.48
22.61
22.74
22.87
23.01
23.15
23.29
23.42
23.56
23.71
23.92
24.13
24.34
24.54
24.75
0.0%
Ethanol (E85)
158.5
158.4
158.4
180.0
173.1
174.3
177.4
187.8
189.8
192.5
190.7
190.6
198.2
198.6
199.4
200.5
201.3
202.5
203.1
203.6
204.4
204.8
205.6
206.8
208.9
209.6
1.2%
                                                       
Electric Generators 5/                                                      
Distillate Fuel
93.3
86.0
77.6
83.7
72.1
69.5
68.6
68.8
69.3
70.0
71.1
72.5
73.4
75.2
76.9
77.7
78.2
79.6
81.2
83.5
84.0
83.8
86.4
86.2
85.5
85.7
0.0%
Residual Fuel
65.7
67.4
60.1
65.1
59.8
57.7
58.2
58.4
58.1
59.3
59.4
60.0
60.0
60.3
60.5
60.9
61.1
61.6
62.0
62.4
62.9
63.6
64.2
65.0
65.2
65.9
-0.1%
Residual Fuel (2001 dollars per barrel)
27.59
28.30
25.24
27.34
25.10
24.22
24.44
24.51
24.39
24.90
24.94
25.21
25.20
25.31
25.43
25.59
25.67
25.86
26.06
26.23
26.44
26.70
26.96
27.29
27.40
27.67
-0.1%
                                                       
Refined Petroleum Product Prices 6/                                                      
Distillate Fuel
139.4
127.0
118.3
127.2
121.0
117.5
119.2
124.5
123.9
125.7
127.2
128.8
128.0
127.5
127.6
128.5
128.9
129.9
131.0
131.5
131.3
132.9
134.4
135.4
135.6
136.3
0.3%
Jet Fuel 3/
98.0
83.7
79.7
85.5
78.4
75.8
74.1
75.1
75.3
75.7
75.9
77.8
78.0
79.2
80.4
81.4
81.7
83.0
84.2
85.3
85.4
87.1
88.7
89.6
89.9
90.7
0.3%
Liquefied Petroleum Gas
106.2
110.3
78.7
81.9
88.2
87.5
84.6
86.6
87.0
87.2
89.4
89.9
90.0
90.6
91.1
91.6
91.9
92.2
92.4
92.8
93.1
93.5
93.8
94.3
94.9
95.3
-0.6%
Motor Gasoline 4/
154.1
143.3
135.7
143.4
141.0
139.9
141.0
141.3
141.5
142.5
142.8
141.4
141.1
140.3
140.6
140.4
140.8
142.9
143.5
143.6
143.7
143.5
143.9
145.3
146.2
149.6
0.2%
Residual Fuel
64.0
61.5
57.3
61.4
55.3
53.4
53.8
54.1
54.4
54.8
55.1
55.5
55.8
56.2
56.5
56.9
57.2
57.5
57.9
58.2
58.6
59.1
59.6
60.2
60.6
61.1
0.0%
Residual Fuel (2001 dollars per barrel)
26.88
25.85
24.05
25.79
23.24
22.43
22.60
22.72
22.84
23.02
23.16
23.31
23.46
23.60
23.74
23.88
24.02
24.17
24.30
24.45
24.62
24.83
25.05
25.28
25.47
25.68
0.0%
Average
132.3
123.6
115.2
122.5
119.7
118.1
118.7
120.4
120.5
121.6
122.4
122.4
122.1
121.8
122.2
122.4
122.8
124.3
125.0
125.3
125.4
125.9
126.6
127.7
128.4
130.4
0.2%

1/ Includes combined heat and power.
2/ Diesel fuel containing 500 parts per million (ppm) or 15 ppm sulfur. Includes Federal and State taxes while excluding county and local taxes.
3/ Kerosene-type jet fuel.
4/ Sales weighted-average price for all grades. Includes Federal, State, and local taxes.
5/ Includes all electric power generators except combined heat and power, which produces electricity and other useful thermal energy. Includes small power producers and exempt wholesale generators.
6/ Weighted averages of end-use fuel prices are derived from the prices in each sector and the corresponding sectoral consumption.
Note: Data for 2000 and 2001 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports.
Sources: 2000 prices for motor gasoline, distillate, and jet fuel are based on prices in the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Petroleum Marketing Annual 2000,
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/petroleum_marketing_annual/pma_historical.html (August 2001). 2001 prices for motor gasoline, distillate, and jet fuel are based on the Petroleum Marketing Annual 2001, http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/petroleum_marketing_annual/current/pdf/pmaall.pdf (September 2002).
2000 and 2001 prices for other residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation petroleum products are derived from EIA, Form EIA-782A: "Refiners'/Gas Plant Operators' Monthly Petroleum Products Sales Report." 2000 and 2001 electric generators prices: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, FERC Form 423, "Monthly Report of Cost and Quality of Fuels for Electric Plants." 2000 and 2001 world oil price: EIA, Annual Energy Review 2001, DOE/EIA-0384(2001) (Washington, DC, November 2002). 2000 and 2001 ethanol prices are derived from weekly spot prices in Oxy Fuel News. Projections: EIA, AEO2003 National Energy Modeling System run aeo2003.d110502c.