Annual Energy Outlook 2003 with Projections to 2025
Reference Case

Table 11. Petroleum Supply and Disposition Balance
(Million Barrels per Day, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Supply and Disposition
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2001-
2025
                                                       
Crude Oil                                                      
Domestic Crude Production 1/
5.87
5.80
5.89
5.81
5.66
5.58
6.01
6.06
5.95
5.81
5.63
5.54
5.45
5.34
5.26
5.25
5.26
5.28
5.32
5.44
5.46
5.45
5.51
5.48
5.41
5.33
-0.4%
Alaska
0.99
0.97
1.00
1.01
0.93
0.87
0.81
0.76
0.72
0.67
0.64
0.68
0.73
0.78
0.82
0.88
0.97
1.05
1.11
1.18
1.23
1.28
1.28
1.28
1.24
1.17
0.8%
Lower 48 States
4.89
4.84
4.89
4.80
4.73
4.71
5.20
5.29
5.23
5.14
4.98
4.85
4.72
4.56
4.44
4.37
4.29
4.23
4.21
4.26
4.23
4.17
4.23
4.20
4.17
4.16
-0.6%
Net Imports
9.02
9.31
9.00
9.57
9.88
10.23
10.06
10.35
10.71
11.11
11.51
11.77
11.95
12.13
12.24
12.36
12.44
12.53
12.60
12.58
12.66
12.73
12.72
12.82
12.93
13.06
1.4%
Gross Imports
9.07
9.33
9.02
9.59
9.94
10.29
10.14
10.43
10.78
11.18
11.58
11.82
12.01
12.18
12.29
12.41
12.49
12.58
12.65
12.64
12.72
12.78
12.78
12.87
12.98
13.11
1.4%
Exports
0.05
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.06
0.06
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.05
0.05
3.9%
Other Crude Supply 2/
0.23
0.02
0.12
0.04
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
N/A
                                                       
Total Crude Supply
15.12
15.13
15.01
15.42
15.54
15.81
16.07
16.41
16.65
16.92
17.14
17.30
17.40
17.47
17.50
17.61
17.71
17.81
17.91
18.02
18.12
18.18
18.24
18.29
18.34
18.39
0.8%
                                                       
Natural Gas Plant Liquids
1.91
1.87
1.88
1.90
2.09
2.08
2.11
2.11
2.16
2.19
2.23
2.28
2.33
2.36
2.39
2.41
2.41
2.42
2.46
2.49
2.53
2.55
2.57
2.59
2.62
2.63
1.4%
                                                       
Other Inputs 3/
0.35
0.30
0.56
0.51
0.42
0.43
0.43
0.46
0.48
0.47
0.44
0.42
0.41
0.42
0.42
0.41
0.42
0.43
0.43
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.45
0.45
0.45
0.45
1.6%
Refinery Processing Gain 4/
0.95
0.90
0.94
0.94
0.89
0.89
0.89
0.89
0.89
0.89
0.91
0.92
0.93
0.94
0.94
0.95
0.95
0.96
0.96
0.96
0.96
0.96
0.96
0.96
0.96
0.96
0.2%
                                                       
Net Product Imports 5/
1.40
1.59
1.35
1.53
1.23
1.27
1.41
1.53
1.72
1.95
2.25
2.56
2.89
3.25
3.60
3.84
4.09
4.34
4.56
4.84
5.06
5.35
5.64
5.98
6.37
6.73
6.2%
Gross Refined Product Imports 6/
2.04
2.08
1.83
2.04
1.75
1.79
2.00
2.04
2.22
2.43
2.59
2.81
3.00
3.25
3.56
3.82
4.07
4.31
4.53
4.80
5.02
5.34
5.65
6.01
6.40
6.76
5.0%
Unfinished Oil Imports
0.27
0.38
0.38
0.35
0.36
0.39
0.35
0.44
0.46
0.49
0.66
0.74
0.90
1.01
1.07
1.04
1.05
1.07
1.08
1.08
1.09
1.08
1.05
1.05
1.06
1.07
4.4%
Ether Imports
0.08
0.08
0.05
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
N/A
Exports
0.99
0.95
0.91
0.91
0.88
0.91
0.94
0.95
0.97
0.98
1.00
1.00
1.01
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.03
1.04
1.05
1.05
1.06
1.07
1.07
1.08
1.09
1.10
0.6%
                                                       
Total Primary Supply 7/
19.73
19.80
19.74
20.31
20.17
20.48
20.91
21.40
21.90
22.41
22.97
23.48
23.97
24.43
24.85
25.21
25.58
25.95
26.33
26.74
27.11
27.48
27.86
28.27
28.74
29.16
1.6%
                                                       
Refined Petroleum Products Supplied                                                      
Motor Gasoline 8/
8.54
8.67
8.88
9.03
9.19
9.40
9.63
9.89
10.15
10.42
10.69
10.94
11.18
11.41
11.63
11.83
12.02
12.21
12.40
12.61
12.78
12.95
13.13
13.34
13.56
13.77
1.9%
Jet Fuel 9/
1.73
1.66
1.62
1.62
1.61
1.65
1.70
1.74
1.79
1.85
1.90
1.95
2.00
2.06
2.12
2.17
2.23
2.29
2.35
2.40
2.46
2.51
2.57
2.62
2.68
2.74
2.1%
Distillate Fuel 10/
3.72
3.81
3.70
3.85
3.95
4.03
4.14
4.25
4.37
4.48
4.61
4.73
4.82
4.89
4.98
5.05
5.11
5.18
5.25
5.32
5.40
5.48
5.56
5.66
5.78
5.87
1.8%
Residual Fuel
0.97
0.97
0.58
0.56
0.56
0.56
0.57
0.57
0.59
0.59
0.60
0.60
0.61
0.62
0.63
0.63
0.63
0.63
0.63
0.63
0.64
0.64
0.64
0.64
0.64
0.64
-1.7%
Other 11/
4.82
4.58
4.79
4.77
4.86
4.84
4.88
4.95
5.01
5.10
5.20
5.28
5.37
5.45
5.51
5.55
5.60
5.66
5.72
5.79
5.85
5.91
5.97
6.03
6.09
6.15
1.2%
Total
19.78
19.69
19.57
19.83
20.18
20.49
20.91
21.40
21.91
22.43
22.99
23.49
23.99
24.44
24.87
25.23
25.60
25.97
26.34
26.76
27.13
27.49
27.87
28.28
28.75
29.17
1.7%
                                                       
Refined Petroleum Products Supplied                                                      
Residential and Commercial
1.23
1.21
1.18
1.17
1.18
1.18
1.18
1.18
1.18
1.17
1.17
1.16
1.16
1.16
1.15
1.15
1.15
1.14
1.14
1.13
1.13
1.13
1.13
1.13
1.13
1.12
-0.3%
Industrial 12/
4.87
4.67
4.81
4.83
4.91
4.89
4.93
5.01
5.09
5.19
5.30
5.39
5.49
5.57
5.63
5.67
5.73
5.79
5.85
5.93
6.00
6.06
6.13
6.19
6.26
6.33
1.3%
Transportation
13.18
13.27
13.42
13.69
13.94
14.26
14.64
15.05
15.47
15.89
16.33
16.75
17.14
17.51
17.87
18.20
18.51
18.82
19.15
19.49
19.79
20.08
20.41
20.75
21.13
21.48
2.0%
Electric Generators 13/
0.49
0.55
0.17
0.14
0.15
0.15
0.16
0.16
0.18
0.17
0.19
0.19
0.20
0.20
0.21
0.21
0.22
0.21
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.22
0.20
0.21
0.23
0.23
-3.5%
Total
19.78
19.69
19.57
19.83
20.18
20.49
20.91
21.40
21.91
22.43
22.99
23.49
23.99
24.44
24.87
25.23
25.60
25.97
26.34
26.76
27.13
27.49
27.87
28.28
28.75
29.17
1.7%
                                                       
Discrepancy 14/
-0.05
0.10
0.17
0.48
-0.01
-0.01
0.00
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
-0.02
-0.02
-0.02
-0.02
-0.02
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
-0.02
-0.02
N/A
                                                       
World Oil Price (2001 dollars per barrel ) 15/
28.35
22.01
23.33
25.83
24.05
23.27
23.43
23.57
23.71
23.85
23.99
24.14
24.28
24.42
24.57
24.72
24.87
25.02
25.18
25.33
25.48
25.70
25.92
26.14
26.35
26.57
0.8%
Import Share of Product Supplied
0.53
0.55
0.53
0.56
0.55
0.56
0.55
0.56
0.57
0.58
0.60
0.61
0.62
0.63
0.64
0.64
0.65
0.65
0.65
0.65
0.65
0.66
0.66
0.66
0.67
0.68
0.9%
Net Expenditures for Imported Crude &                                                      
Petroleum Products (billion 2001 dollars)
108.88
89.20
87.44
105.35
97.93
98.32
99.04
103.48
108.80
115.85
122.96
128.97
135.02
140.83
146.43
151.12
155.95
160.66
165.42
169.91
174.57
180.19
185.27
191.90
199.43
206.94
3.6%
Domestic Refinery Distillation Capacity 16/
16.6
16.8
16.8
17.1
17.2
17.6
17.9
18.2
18.5
18.6
18.7
18.8
18.8
18.8
18.8
18.9
19.0
19.2
19.3
19.4
19.5
19.5
19.6
19.7
19.7
19.8
0.7%
Capacity Utilization Rate (percent)
93.0
93.0
94.0
93.0
91.5
91.5
91.3
91.6
91.3
92.4
93.2
93.6
94.2
94.5
94.7
94.7
94.7
94.6
94.6
94.6
94.6
94.6
94.6
94.6
94.6
94.6
0.1%

1/ Includes lease condensate.
2/ Strategic petroleum reserve stock additions plus unaccounted for crude oil and crude stock withdrawals minus crude products supplied.
3/ Includes alcohols, ethers, petroleum product stock withdrawals, domestic sources of blending components, other hydrocarbons, natural gas converted to liquid fuel, and coal converted to liquid fuel.
4/ Represents volumetric gain in refinery distillation and cracking processes.
5/ Includes net imports of finished petroleum products, unfinished oils, other hydrocarbons, alcohols, ethers, and blending components.
6/ Includes other hydrocarbons, alcohols, and blending components.
7/ Total crude supply plus natural gas plant liquids, other inputs, refinery processing gain, and net product imports.
8/ Includes ethanol and ethers blended into gasoline.
9/ Includes only kerosene type.
10/ Includes distillate and kerosene.
11/ Includes aviation gasoline, liquefied petroleum gas, petrochemical feedstocks, lubricants, waxes, asphalt, road oil, still gas, special naphthas, petroleum coke, crude oil product supplied, and miscellaneous petroleum products.
12/ Includes consumption for combined heat and power, which produces electricity and other useful thermal energy.
13/ Includes consumption of energy by electricity-only and combined heat and power (CHP) plants whose primary business is to sell electricity, or electricity and heat, to the public. Includes small power producers and exempt wholesale generators.
14/ Balancing item. Includes unaccounted for supply, losses and gains.
15/ Average refiner acquisition cost for imported crude oil.
16/ End-of-year capacity.
N/A = Not applicable.
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2000 and 2001 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports.
Sources: 2000 and 2001 product supplied based on: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review 2001, DOE/EIA-0384(2001) (Washington, DC, November 2002). Other 2000 data: EIA, Petroleum Supply Annual 2000, DOE/EIA-0340(2000)/1 (Washington, DC, June 2001). Other 2001 data: EIA, Petroleum Supply Annual 2001, DOE/EIA-0340(2001)/1 (Washington, DC, June 2002). Projections: EIA, AEO2003 National Energy Modeling System run aeo2003.d110502c.