Annual Energy Outlook 2003 with Projections to 2025
Reference Case

Table 1. Total Energy Supply and Disposition Summary
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Supply, Disposition, and Prices
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2001-
2025
                                                       
Production                                                      
Crude Oil & Lease Condensate
12.44
12.29
12.47
12.30
11.98
11.82
12.72
12.82
12.59
12.29
11.91
11.72
11.54
11.30
11.15
11.11
11.14
11.17
11.26
11.51
11.56
11.55
11.67
11.59
11.46
11.29
-0.4%
Natural Gas Plant Liquids
2.71
2.65
2.67
2.59
2.96
2.95
2.98
2.99
3.06
3.11
3.16
3.23
3.30
3.34
3.38
3.42
3.42
3.42
3.49
3.54
3.59
3.62
3.67
3.70
3.75
3.76
1.5%
Dry Natural Gas
19.50
19.97
19.89
20.52
20.69
20.68
20.98
21.06
21.66
22.04
22.47
22.99
23.53
23.85
24.20
24.47
24.53
24.57
25.01
25.38
25.75
26.20
26.78
26.95
27.31
27.47
1.3%
Coal
22.58
23.97
22.56
22.86
22.86
23.33
23.99
24.63
24.82
25.02
25.30
25.46
25.57
25.80
25.99
26.37
26.57
26.91
27.14
27.47
27.69
27.78
28.08
28.46
28.75
29.29
0.8%
Nuclear Power
7.87
8.03
8.12
8.15
8.22
8.28
8.31
8.40
8.32
8.33
8.36
8.36
8.38
8.42
8.47
8.41
8.42
8.42
8.43
8.43
8.43
8.43
8.43
8.43
8.43
8.43
0.2%
Renewable Energy 1/
5.96
5.33
5.87
6.40
6.55
6.71
6.82
6.93
7.02
7.12
7.23
7.35
7.44
7.55
7.65
7.75
7.84
7.92
8.01
8.14
8.28
8.37
8.46
8.55
8.67
8.78
2.1%
Other 2/
1.09
0.57
1.17
0.95
0.82
0.83
0.84
0.89
0.93
0.90
0.84
0.79
0.76
0.77
0.77
0.74
0.76
0.78
0.79
0.79
0.80
0.80
0.80
0.80
0.80
0.80
1.4%
Total
72.15
72.81
72.74
73.78
74.08
74.60
76.64
77.72
78.39
78.82
79.27
79.90
80.52
81.04
81.61
82.25
82.69
83.20
84.12
85.26
86.10
86.75
87.90
88.48
89.18
89.83
0.9%
                                                       
Imports                                                      
Crude Oil 3/
19.69
20.26
19.58
20.82
21.59
22.34
22.01
22.65
23.41
24.28
25.13
25.67
26.07
26.44
26.67
26.93
27.12
27.32
27.45
27.43
27.61
27.75
27.75
27.94
28.18
28.47
1.4%
Petroleum Products 4/
4.73
5.04
4.50
4.85
4.15
4.25
4.63
4.87
5.30
5.76
6.41
7.02
7.72
8.41
9.13
9.59
10.08
10.56
11.00
11.54
11.97
12.51
13.02
13.70
14.49
15.17
4.7%
Natural Gas
3.86
4.10
3.76
3.92
4.33
4.54
4.69
4.89
5.14
5.36
5.52
5.61
5.72
5.79
5.88
5.94
6.32
6.63
6.80
7.01
7.22
7.40
7.56
7.89
8.16
8.30
3.0%
Other Imports 5/
0.69
0.73
0.68
0.79
0.78
0.81
0.74
0.79
0.83
0.84
0.90
0.92
0.95
0.95
0.95
0.98
0.97
0.96
0.94
0.92
0.96
0.94
0.93
0.92
0.94
0.94
1.1%
Total
28.98
30.13
28.52
30.38
30.85
31.94
32.06
33.20
34.69
36.23
37.96
39.23
40.46
41.59
42.62
43.43
44.49
45.46
46.20
46.90
47.76
48.60
49.26
50.45
51.77
52.88
2.4%
                                                       
Exports                                                      
Petroleum 6/
2.15
2.01
1.92
1.92
2.00
2.05
2.16
2.19
2.22
2.21
2.24
2.24
2.25
2.24
2.25
2.26
2.27
2.29
2.30
2.33
2.34
2.36
2.36
2.38
2.40
2.41
0.8%
Natural Gas
0.25
0.37
0.51
0.52
0.57
0.59
0.60
0.61
0.62
0.63
0.62
0.61
0.60
0.58
0.57
0.55
0.52
0.50
0.47
0.45
0.41
0.38
0.38
0.37
0.37
0.37
0.1%
Coal
1.53
1.27
1.04
1.03
1.01
1.00
0.98
0.96
0.95
0.93
0.91
0.82
0.80
0.81
0.79
0.74
0.71
0.72
0.73
0.73
0.74
0.69
0.68
0.68
0.67
0.67
-2.6%
Total
3.92
3.64
3.47
3.48
3.58
3.64
3.75
3.76
3.79
3.77
3.76
3.67
3.65
3.64
3.61
3.55
3.51
3.51
3.50
3.51
3.49
3.43
3.42
3.43
3.44
3.45
-0.2%
 
Discrepancy 7/
-2.18
1.99
0.28
0.78
-0.35
-0.27
-0.16
-0.06
0.04
0.14
0.21
0.22
0.22
0.24
0.25
0.23
0.24
0.24
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.22
0.19
0.18
0.20
0.19
N/A
                                                       
Consumption                                                      
Petroleum Products 8/
38.53
38.46
37.99
38.49
39.18
39.79
40.63
41.59
42.58
43.57
44.65
45.62
46.56
47.42
48.25
48.93
49.66
50.37
51.09
51.89
52.60
53.30
54.03
54.83
55.74
56.56
1.6%
Natural Gas
24.07
23.26
23.80
24.62
25.11
25.24
25.63
25.86
26.65
27.20
27.75
28.38
29.04
29.44
29.90
30.25
30.72
31.10
31.74
32.34
32.96
33.63
34.36
34.86
35.51
35.81
1.8%
Coal
22.64
22.02
21.46
21.90
22.31
22.82
23.50
24.19
24.41
24.66
24.98
25.24
25.40
25.64
25.85
26.30
26.54
26.88
27.12
27.46
27.68
27.84
28.16
28.55
28.87
29.42
1.2%
Nuclear Power
7.87
8.03
8.12
8.15
8.22
8.28
8.31
8.40
8.32
8.33
8.36
8.36
8.38
8.42
8.47
8.41
8.42
8.42
8.43
8.43
8.43
8.43
8.43
8.43
8.43
8.43
0.2%
Renewable Energy 1/
5.96
5.33
5.87
6.40
6.55
6.71
6.82
6.93
7.02
7.12
7.23
7.36
7.44
7.55
7.65
7.75
7.85
7.92
8.01
8.14
8.28
8.37
8.46
8.55
8.67
8.78
2.1%
Other 9/
0.31
0.21
0.27
0.34
0.31
0.32
0.23
0.25
0.28
0.25
0.29
0.28
0.29
0.27
0.25
0.27
0.25
0.22
0.18
0.14
0.17
0.14
0.11
0.09
0.08
0.07
-4.4%
Total
99.38
97.30
97.51
99.91
101.69
103.16
105.12
107.21
109.26
111.14
113.26
115.24
117.11
118.75
120.37
121.91
123.43
124.92
126.56
128.40
130.12
131.71
133.55
135.31
137.31
139.07
1.5%
                                                       
Net Imports - Petroleum
22.28
23.29
22.16
23.75
23.73
24.54
24.48
25.34
26.50
27.82
29.31
30.46
31.53
32.61
33.54
34.26
34.93
35.59
36.15
36.65
37.24
37.90
38.42
39.27
40.28
41.23
2.4%
                                                       
Prices (2001 dollars per unit)                                                      
World Oil Price (dollars per barrel) 10/
28.35
22.01
23.33
25.83
24.05
23.27
23.43
23.57
23.71
23.85
23.99
24.14
24.28
24.42
24.57
24.72
24.87
25.02
25.18
25.33
25.48
25.70
25.92
26.14
26.35
26.57
0.8%
Natural Gas Wellhead Price (dollars per Mcf) 11/
3.83
4.12
2.75
3.13
2.92
2.88
2.82
2.91
3.03
3.15
3.29
3.36
3.43
3.47
3.52
3.55
3.59
3.61
3.57
3.58
3.69
3.69
3.75
3.82
3.87
3.90
-0.2%
Coal Minemouth Price (dollars per ton)
17.18
17.59
17.01
16.91
16.60
16.50
16.34
16.05
15.68
15.37
14.99
14.78
14.60
14.65
14.63
14.67
14.59
14.49
14.51
14.48
14.38
14.32
14.28
14.24
14.32
14.36
-0.8%
Average Electricity (cents per kilowatthour)
6.9
7.3
6.9
6.6
6.6
6.5
6.4
6.3
6.3
6.4
6.4
6.4
6.4
6.4
6.4
6.5
6.5
6.5
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.7
6.7
6.8
6.7
-0.3%

1/ Includes grid-connected electricity from conventional hydroelectric; wood and wood waste; landfill gas; municipal solid waste; other biomass; wind; photovoltaic and solar thermal sources; non-electric energy from renewable sources, such as active and passive solar systems, and wood; and both the ethanol and gasoline components of E85, but not the ethanol components of blends less than 85 percent. Excludes electricity imports using renewable sources and nonmarketed renewable energy. See Table A18 for selected nonmarketed residential and commercial renewable energy.
2/ Includes liquid hydrogen, methanol, supplemental natural gas, and some domestic inputs to refineries.
3/ Includes imports of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
4/ Includes imports of finished petroleum products, imports of unfinished oils, alcohols, ethers, and blending components.
5/ Includes coal, coal coke (net), and electricity (net).
6/ Includes crude oil and petroleum products.
7/ Balancing item. Includes unaccounted for supply, losses, gains, net storage withdrawals, heat loss when natural gas is converted to liquid fuel, and heat loss when coal is converted to liquid fuel.
8/ Includes natural gas plant liquids, crude oil consumed as a fuel, and nonpetroleum-based liquids for blending, such as ethanol.
9/ Includes net electricity imports, methanol, and liquid hydrogen.
10/ Average refiner acquisition cost for imported crude oil.
11/ Represents lower 48 onshore and offshore supplies.
Btu = British thermal unit.
Mcf = Thousand cubic feet.
N/A = Not applicable.
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2000 and 2001 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports.
Sources: 2000 natural gas supply values: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Natural Gas Annual 2000, DOE/EIA-0131(2000) (Washington, DC, November 2001). 2001 natural gas supply values: EIA, Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130(2002/08) (Washington, DC, August 2002). 2000 coal minemouth prices: EIA, Coal Industry Annual 2000, DOE/EIA-0584(2000) (Washington, DC, January 2002). 2000 petroleum supply values: EIA, Petroleum Supply Annual 2000, DOE/EIA-0340(2000)/1 (Washington, DC, June 2001). 2001 petroleum supply values: EIA, Petroleum Supply Annual 2001, DOE/EIA-0340(2001)/1 (Washington, DC, June 2002). Other 2000 and 2001 values: EIA, Annual Energy Review 2001, DOE/EIA-0384(2001) (Washington, DC, November 2002) and EIA, Quarterly Coal Report, October-December 2001, DOE/EIA-0121(2001/4Q) (Washington, DC, May 2002). Projections: EIA, AEO2003 National Energy Modeling System run aeo2003.d110502c.