Primary Production (quadrillion Btu)

  Petroleum

15.06

15.04

15.95

15.52

16.39

14.40

17.73

  Natural Gas

19.20

19.59

29.25

27.98

29.72

28.54

30.03

  Coal

23.15

22.58

28.11

26.88

30.08

27.58

29.04

  Nuclear Power

7.74

8.03

7.49

7.38

7.49

7.31

7.58

  Renewable Energy

6.69

6.46

8.93

8.59

9.37

8.90

8.97

  Other

1.66

1.10

0.93

0.91

0.73

0.40

1.06

    Total Primary Production

73.50

72.80

90.66

87.26

93.79

87.13

94.40

Net Imports (quadrillion Btu)

  Petroleum (including SPR)

21.19

22.28

35.04

32.39

38.25

38.65

31.51

  Natural Gas

3.50

3.60

5.64

5.12

6.40

5.90

5.17

  Coal/Other (- indicates export)

-0.96

-0.77

-0.29

-0.38

-0.15

-0.31

-0.29

    Total Net Imports

23.73

25.11

40.39

37.13

44.49

44.25

36.40

  Discrepancy

0.13

-1.37

0.20

0.25

0.04

-0.04

0.51

Consumption (quadrillion Btu)

  Petroleum Products

38.25

38.63

51.99

48.84

55.60

53.78

50.96

  Natural Gas

22.57

23.43

34.63

32.84

35.87

34.17

34.04

  Coal

21.56

22.34

27.35

26.08

29.41

26.83

28.27

  Nuclear Power

7.74

8.03

7.49

7.38

7.49

7.31

7.58

  Renewable Energy

6.70

6.48

8.94

8.59

9.38

8.91

8.98

  Other

0.28

0.38

0.44

0.40

0.48

0.42

0.46

    Total Consumption

97.10

99.29

130.85

124.13

138.24

131.42

130.29

Prices (2000 dollars)

  World Oil Price

  (dollars per barrel)

17.60

27.72

24.68

23.45

25.81

17.64

30.58

  Domestic Natural Gas at Wellhead

  (dollars per thousand cubic feet)

2.27

3.60

3.26

2.94

3.65

3.07

3.40

  Domestic Coal at Minemouth

  (dollars per short ton)

17.01

16.45

12.79

12.56

13.23

12.67

12.95

  Average Electricity Price

  (cents per kilowatthour)

6.7

6.9

6.5

6.2

6.8

6.4

6.5

Economic Indicators

  Real Gross Domestic Product

    (billion 1996 dollars)

8,857

9,224

16,525

14,901

18,102

16,561

16,496

    (annual change, 2000-2020)

—

—

3.0%

2.4%

3.4%

3.0%

2.9%

  GDP Chain-Type Price Index

    (index, 1996=1.00)

1.047

1.070

1.826

2.067

1.608

1.797

1.859

    (annual change, 2000-2020)

—

—

2.7%

3.3%

2.1%

2.6%

2.8%

  Real Disposable Personal Income

    (billion 1996 dollars)

6,320

6,539

11,698

10,791

12,541

11,685

11,723

    (annual change, 2000-2020)

—

—

3.0%

2.5%

3.3%

2.9%

3.0%

  Gross Manufacturing Output

    (billion 1992 dollars)

3,804

4,022

7,003

6,473

8,023

7,026

6,977

    (annual change, 2000-2020)

—

—

2.8%

2.4%

3.5%

2.8%

2.8%

Energy Intensity

   (thousand Btu per 1996 dollar of GDP)

10.97

10.77

7.92

8.34

7.64

7.94

7.90

   (annual change, 2000-2020)

—

—

-1.5%

-1.3%

-1.7%

-1.5%

-1.5%

Carbon Dioxide Emissions

   (million metric tons carbon equivalent)

1,517

1,562

2,088

1,980

2,215

2,103

2,083

   (annual change, 2000-2020)

—

—

1.5%

1.2%

1.8%

1.5%

1.5%

Note: Specific assumptions underlying the alternative cases are defined in the Economic Activity and International Oil Markets sections beginning on page 56. Quantities are derived from historical volumes and assumed thermal conversion factors. Other production includes liquid hydrogen, methanol, supplemental natural gas, and some inputs to refineries. Net imports of petroleum include crude oil, petroleumproducts, unfinished oils, alcohols, ethers, and blending components. Other net imports include coal coke and electricity. Some refinery inputs appear as petroleum product consumption. Other consumption includes net electricity imports, liquid hydrogen, and methanol.

Sources: Tables Al, A19, A20, B1, B19, B20, C1, C19, and C20.