Table 8. Forecast comparison of key macroeconomic variables
|
History |
Projections, 1999-2020 |
||||
|
1980-1990 |
1990-1999 |
AEO2000 |
AEO2001 |
||
|
Growth rate (percent per year) |
|||||
|
Real GDP |
3.2 |
3.2 |
2.1 |
3.0 |
|
|
Population age 16 and over |
1.1 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
|
|
Labor force |
1.6 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
|
|
Disposable income |
3.0 |
2.9 |
2.4 |
3.0 |
|
|
Commercial floorspace |
2.0 |
1.5 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
|
|
Industrial output |
1.6 |
2.6 |
1.9 |
2.6 |
|
|
Manufacturing output |
1.6 |
2.8 |
2.0 |
2.8 |
|
|
Energy-intensive sector output |
0.9 |
1.6 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
|
|
Non-energy-intensive sector output |
1.9 |
3.3 |
2.3 |
3.3 |
|
|
Period average (million per year) |
|||||
|
Total housing starts |
1.75 |
1.67 |
1.86 |
2.01 |
|
|
Unit sales of light-duty vehicles |
13.49 |
14.54 |
16.02 |
16.70 |
|
| Source: National Energy Modeling System, runs AEO2K.D100199A and AEO2001.D101600A. | |||||