Table 8. Forecast comparison of key macroeconomic variables

 

History

Projections, 1999-2020

1980-1990

1990-1999

 

AEO2000

AEO2001

 

Growth rate (percent per year)

Real GDP

3.2

3.2

 

2.1

3.0

Population age 16 and over

1.1

1.0

 

0.9

0.9

Labor force

1.6

1.1

 

0.9

0.9

Disposable income

3.0

2.9

 

2.4

3.0

Commercial floorspace

2.0

1.5

 

1.0

1.3

Industrial output

1.6

2.6

 

1.9

2.6

  Manufacturing output

1.6

2.8

 

2.0

2.8

    Energy-intensive sector output

0.9

1.6

 

1.0

1.2

    Non-energy-intensive sector output

1.9

3.3

 

2.3

3.3

 

Period average (million per year)

Total housing starts

1.75

1.67

 

1.86

2.01

Unit sales of light-duty vehicles

13.49

14.54

 

16.02

16.70

Source: National Energy Modeling System, runs AEO2K.D100199A and AEO2001.D101600A.

Back to Issues in Focus