Projection

AEO2001

Other forecasts

Reference

Low
economic growth

High
economic growth

WEFA

GRI/Hill

DRI

2015

Production

 1,294

 1,259

 1,352

 1,078

 1,123

 1,210

Consumption by sector

  Electricity generation^a

 1,149

 1,117

 1,203

 971

 1,070

 1,057

  Coking plants

 21

 21

 21

 25

 20

 22

  Industrial/other^a

 90

 88

 94

 34

 71

 75

    Total

 1,261

 1,226

 1,318

 1,030

 1,162

 1,154

Net coal exports

 35

 35

 35

 51

 4

 57

Minemouth price

  (1999 dollars per short ton)

 13.38

 13.23

 13.28

 13.39

 12.81^c

 NA

  (1999 dollars per million Btu)

 0.66

 0.65

 0.65

 0.62

 0.58^c

 NA

Average delivered price, electricity

  (1999 dollars per short ton)

 20.25

 19.96

 20.65

 22.13^b

 22.41

 20.73

  (1999 dollars per million Btu)

 1.01

 1.00

 1.04

 1.08

 1.06

 0.99

2020

Production

 1,331

 1,279

 1,461

 1,124

 1,101

 1,196

Consumption by sector

  Electricity generation^a

 1,186

 1,138

 1,311

 1,015

 1,050

 1,044

  Coking plants

 19

 19

 19

 24

 19

 21

  Industrial/other^a

 91

 88

 97

 34

 61

 76

    Total

 1,297

 1,245

 1,426

 1,073

 1,130

 1,141

Net coal exports

 36

 36

 36

 52

 2

 55

Minemouth price

  (1999 dollars per short ton)

 12.70

 12.79

 12.80

 12.73

 12.62^c

 NA

  (1999 dollars per million Btu)

 0.63

 0.63

 0.64

 0.59

 0.57^c

 NA

Average delivered price, electricity

  (1999 dollars per short ton)

 19.45

 19.11

 19.83

 21.31^b

 22.01

 19.76

  (1999 dollars per million Btu)

 0.98

 0.96

 1.01

 1.04

 1.04

 0.94

    ^aWEFA includes cogeneration in the electricity generation category, whereas the other forecasts include it under industrial/ other.
    ^bComputed using a conversion factor of 20.495 million Btu per short ton from the Technical Appendix.
    ^cGRI’s minemouth prices represent an average for domestic steam coal only. Exports and coking coal are not included in the average.
    NA = Not available.
    Btu = British thermal unit.
    Sources: AEO2001: AEO2001 National Energy Modeling System, runs AEO2001.D101600A (reference case), LM2001.D101600A (low economic growth case), and HM2001.D101600A (high economic growth case). WEFA: The WEFA Group, U.S. Energy Outlook (2000). GRI/Hill: Gas Research Institute, Final Report, Coal Outlook and Price Projection, Vol. I, GRI-00/0019.1, and Vol. II, GRI/0019.2 (April 2000). DRI: Standard & Poor’s DRI, U.S. Energy Outlook (Spring/Summer 2000).