Projection

AEO2001

Other forecasts

Reference

Low
world oil price

High
world oil price

WEFA

GRI

DRI

IPAA

2010

World oil price
(1999 dollars per barrel)

21.37

15.10

26.66

18.48

18.17

18.65^a

NA

Crude oil and NGL production

7.50

6.85

7.93

7.55

8.50

7.71

7.52

  Crude oil

5.15

4.51

5.54

5.43

5.81

5.49^b

5.49

  Natural gas liquids

2.35

2.34

2.39

2.12

2.69

2.22

2.03

Total net imports

13.92

15.31

12.95

11.11

NA

14.68

12.37

  Crude oil

11.54

11.89

11.16

10.23

NA

10.94

NA

  Petroleum products

2.38

3.42

1.79

0.88

NA

3.74

NA

Petroleum demand

22.70

23.30

22.29

21.57

21.39

23.86

23.65

  Motor gasoline

10.11

10.31

10.03

9.10

8.51

10.61

NA

  Jet fuel

2.18

2.20

2.16

1.92

2.20

2.37

NA

  Distillate fuel

4.47

4.57

4.44

4.09

4.15

4.33

NA

  Residual fuel

0.58

0.77

0.55

0.76

1.12

0.91

NA

  Other

5.36

5.46

5.11

5.70

5.41

5.64

NA

Import share of product supplied
(percent)

61

66

58

52

NA

62

52

2020

World oil price
(1999 dollars per barrel)

22.41

15.10

28.42

20.41

NA

21.16^a

NA

Crude oil and NGL production

7.94

7.16

8.67

7.49

NA

7.38

NA

  Crude oil

5.05

4.35

5.78

5.07

NA

4.95^b

NA

  Natural gas liquids

2.89

2.81

2.89

2.42

NA

2.43

NA

Total net imports

16.51

18.77

15.17

13.26

NA

18.17

NA

  Crude oil

12.14

13.31

11.45

11.39

NA

11.33

NA

  Petroleum products

4.37

5.46

3.72

1.87

NA

6.84

NA

Petroleum demand

25.83

27.00

25.28

23.81

NA

27.11

NA

  Motor gasoline

11.33

11.67

11.11

9.68

NA

12.05

NA

  Jet fuel

2.88

2.91

2.84

2.58

NA

3.16

NA

  Distillate fuel

5.10

5.47

5.06

4.45

NA

4.73

NA

  Residual fuel

0.60

0.80

0.58

0.84

NA

0.88

NA

  Other

5.92

6.15

5.69

6.27

NA

6.29

NA

Import share of product supplied (percent)

64

70

60

56

NA

67

NA

    ^aComposite of U.S. refiners’ acquisition cost.
    ^bIncludes shale and other.
    NA = Not available.
    Sources: AEO2001: AEO2001 National Energy Modeling System, runs AEO2001.D101600A (reference case), LW2001.D101600A (low world oil price case), and HW2001.D101600A (high world oil price case). WEFA: The WEFA Group, U.S. Energy Outlook (2000). GRI: Gas Research Institute, GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, 2000 Edition (January 2000). DRI: Standard & Poor’s DRI, U.S. Energy Outlook (Spring/Summer 2000). IPAA: Independent Petroleum Association of America, IPAA Supply and Demand Committee Long-Run Report (April 2000).