Projection

AEO2001

Other forecasts

Reference

Low economic growth

High economic growth

WEFA

GRI^a

DRI

AGA

NPC

2015

Lower 48 wellhead price
(1999 dollars per thousand cubic feet)

2.83

2.59

3.20

2.64

1.89

2.79

2.56

3.67

Dry gas production^b

26.24

24.63

27.86

24.43

28.58

24.00

26.71

26.50

Net imports

5.50

5.35

5.62

5.35

4.01

5.70

4.15

4.70

Consumption

31.61

29.85

33.36

30.13

32.78

29.46

30.86

31.84

  Residential

5.83

5.70

5.90

5.67

5.67

5.57

5.93

6.07

  Commercial^c

3.94

3.79

4.07

3.93^d

4.14

3.46^d

3.95

4.09

  Industrial^c

9.76

9.18

10.50

6.33^d

10.98

8.43^e

10.72

10.76

  Electricity generators ^f

9.30

8.54

9.97

11.63^c

8.72

9.25^g

7.06

7.76

  Other ^h

2.78

2.63

2.92

2.57

3.27

2.75

3.20

3.16ⁱ

End-use prices
(1999 dollars per thousand cubic feet)

  Residential

6.61

6.37

6.95

7.36

5.51

7.02

6.31^j

7.65

  Commercial ^c

5.65

5.41

6.00

6.16^d

4.62

6.03

5.07^j

6.76

  Industrial ^c

3.54

3.29

3.91

3.70^d,k

2.91^k

3.98^k

3.09^j,l

4.86^k

  Electricity generators ^f

3.30

3.05

3.67

3.12^c

2.55

3.24

2.99^j

4.21

2020

Lower 48 wellhead price
(1999 dollars per thousand cubic feet)

3.13

2.66

3.68

2.72

NA

3.07

NA

NA

Dry gas production^b

29.04

26.74

30.38

25.72

NA

25.13

NA

NA

Net imports

5.80

5.58

5.82

5.72

NA

6.00

NA

NA

Consumption

34.73

32.22

36.09

31.82

NA

28.58

NA

NA

  Residential

6.14

5.95

6.21

5.88

NA

5.84

NA

NA

  Commercial ^c

4.02

3.83

4.19

4.05^d

NA

3.43^d

NA

NA

  Industrial ^c

10.18

9.36

11.20

6.45^d

NA

8.82^e

NA

NA

  Electricity generators ^f

11.34

10.23

11.29

12.72^c

NA

9.89^g

NA

NA

  Other ^h

3.06

2.85

3.20

2.71

NA

2.88

NA

NA

End-use prices
(1999 dollars per thousand cubic feet)

  Residential

6.73

6.32

7.24

7.44

NA

7.25

NA

NA

  Commercial ^c

5.86

5.42

6.38

6.25^d

NA

6.26

NA

NA

  Industrial ^c

3.86

3.38

4.43

3.78^d,k

NA

4.25^k

NA

NA

  Electricity generators ^f

3.66

3.17

4.17

3.20^c

NA

3.52

NA

NA

    ^aThe baseline projection includes a cyclical price trend based on exploration and production cycles; therefore, forecast values for an isolated year may be misleading.
    ^bDoes not include supplemental fuels.
    ^cIncludes gas consumed in cogeneration.
    ^dExcludes gas used for cogenerators and other nonutility generation.
    ^eExcludes cogenerators’ energy attributed to generating electricity
    ^fIncludes independent power producers and excludes cogenerators.
    ^gIncludes portion of cogeneration attributed to electricity generation
    ^hIncludes lease, plant, and pipeline fuel and fuel consumed in natural gas vehicles.
    ⁱIncludes balancing item.
    ^jDoes not include certain State and local taxes levied on customers.
    ^kOn system sales or system gas (i.e., does not include gas delivered for the account of others).
    ^lVolume-weighted average of “system” gas and “transportation” gas.
    NA = Not available.
    Note: Assumed conversion factors: electricity generators, 1,022 Btu per cubic foot; other end-use sectors, 1,029 Btu per cubic foot; net imports, 1,022 Btu per cubic foot; production and other consumption, 1,028 Btu per cubic foot.
    Sources: AEO2001: AEO2001 National Energy Modeling System, runs AEO2001.D101600A (reference case), LM2001.D101600A (low economic growth case), and HM2001.D101600A (high economic growth case). WEFA: The WEFA Group, Natural Gas Outlook (2000). GRI: Gas Research Institute, GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, 2000 Edition (January 2000). DRI: Standard & Poor’s DRI, U.S. Energy Outlook (Spring/Summer 2000). AGA: American Gas Association, 1999 AGA-TERA Base Case (December 1999). NPC: National Petroleum Council, Natural Gas, Meeting the Challenges of the Nation’s Growing Natural Gas Demand (December 1999).