Projection

AEO2001

Other forecasts

Reference

Low
economic growth

High
economic growth

WEFA

GRI

DRI

2015

Average end-use price
(1999 cents per kilowatthour)

5.9

5.7

6.1

5.8

6.0

5.4

  Residential

7.5

7.2

7.8

7.1

7.6

6.7

  Commercial

6.0

5.7

6.4

6.3

6.9

5.7

  Industrial

3.8

3.6

4.1

3.9

3.4

3.8

Net energy for load

 4,771

 4,564

 5,011

 4,842

 4,812

 4,783

  Coal

 2,246

 2,176

 2,362

 2,026

 2,337

 2,267

  Oil

 17

 17

 18

 51

 85

 174

  Natural gas

 1,266

 1,145

 1,373

 1,764

 1,158

 1,257

  Nuclear

 639

 632

 650

 508

 531

 640

  Hydroelectric/other ^a

 395

 390

 398

 448

 472

 411

  Nonutility sales to grid ^b

 187

 184

 190

 NA

 185

 NA

  Net imports

 21

 21

 21

 44

 44

 34

Electricity sales

 4,484

 4,286

 4,715

 4,210

 4,489

 4,173

  Residential

 1,573

 1,540

 1,600

 1,494

 1,573

 1,388

  Commercial/other ^c

 1,602

 1,532

 1,673

 1,419

 1,448

 1,365

  Industrial

 1,309

 1,214

 1,442

 1,296

 1,469

 1,421

Capability (gigawatts) ^d,e

 1,061

 1,020

 1,112

 961

 962

 1,084

  Coal

 324

 319

 337

 302

 327

 355

  Oil and gas

 541

 500

 569

 461

 411

 516

  Nuclear

 80

 78

 81

 64

 78

 95

  Hydroelectric/other ^a

 117

 123

 126

 134

 146

 118

2020

Average end-use price
(1999 cents per kilowatthour)

6.0

5.6

6.4

5.6

NA

5.8

  Residential

7.6

7.2

8.0

6.8

NA

6.5

  Commercial

6.2

5.7

6.7

6.0

NA

5.6

  Industrial

4.0

3.6

4.3

3.8

NA

3.6

Net energy for load

 5,094

 4,792

 5,437

 5,180

 NA

 5,090

  Coal

 2,298

 2,205

 2,614

 2,177

 NA

 2,395

  Oil

 19

 17

 22

 48

 NA

 189

  Natural gas

 1,587

 1,409

 1,584

 2,005

 NA

 1,462

  Nuclear

 574

 554

 591

 433

 NA

 604

  Hydroelectric/other ^a

 396

 392

 399

 472

 NA

 409

  Nonutility sales to grid ^b

 200

 195

 207

 NA

 NA

 NA

  Net imports

 21

 21

 21

 44

 NA

 31

Electricity sales

 4,804

 4,516

 5,135

 4,503

 NA

 4,450

  Residential

 1,701

 1,645

 1,736

 1,610

 NA

 1,485

  Commercial/other ^c

 1,692

 1,595

 1,794

 1,528

 NA

 1,427

  Industrial

 1,411

 1,276

 1,604

 1,365

 NA

 1,538

Capability (gigawatts) ^d,e

 1,132

 1,068

 1,201

 1,021

 NA

 1,139

  Coal

 325

 317

 366

 317

 NA

 373

  Oil and gas

 609

 558

 635

 511

 NA

 560

  Nuclear

 72

 69

 74

 54

 NA

 89

  Hydroelectric/other ^a

 126

 124

 127

 139

 NA

 118

    ^a“Other” includes conventional hydroelectric, geothermal, wood, wood waste, municipal solid waste, other biomass, solar and wind power, plus a small quantity of petroleum coke. For nonutility generators, “other” also includes waste heat, blast furnace gas, and coke oven gas.
    ^bFor AEO2001, includes only net sales from cogeneration; for the other forecasts, also includes nonutility sales to the grid.
    ^c“Other” includes sales of electricity to government, railways, and street lighting authorities.
    ^dFor DRI, “capability” represents nameplate capacity; for the others, “capability” represents net summer capability.
    ^eGRI generating capability includes only central utility and independent power producer capacity. It does not include cogeneration capacity in the commercial and industrial sectors, which would add another 107 gigawatts.
    Sources: AEO2001: AEO2001 National Energy Modeling System, runs AEO2001.D101600A (reference case), LM2001.D101600A (low economic growth case), and HM2001.D101600A (high economic growth case). WEFA: The WEFA Group, U.S. Energy Outlook (2000). GRI: Gas Research Institute, GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, 2000 Edition (January 2000). DRI: Standard & Poor’s DRI, U.S. Energy Outlook (Spring/Summer 2000).