Table 53.  Assumed Rates of Technological Progress for Unconventional Gas Recovery

Technology
 Group

Item

Type of Deposit

Technology Case

Slow

Reference

Rapid

1

Year Hypothetical Plays Become Available

Coalbed Methane &
Gas Shales

NA

2016

2013

   

Gas Shales

NA

NA

2018

 

Improvement in Play Probability for Hypothetical Plays (per year)

All Types

NA

NA

.5%

2

Decrease in Extended Portion of
Development Schedule for Emerging Plays (per year)

Coalbed Methane &
 Gas Shales

NA

5.0%

7.5%

   

Tight Sands

NA

6.3%

8.2%

3

Expansion of Existing Reserves (per year -declining .1% per year)

Coalbed Methane &
 Gas Shales

2.0%

3.0%

3.5%

   

Tight Sands

1.0%

2.0%

2.5%

4

Increase in Percentage of Wells Drilled Successfully (per year)

Coalbed Methane &
 Gas Shales

.1%

.3%

.6%

   

Tight Sands

.1%

.3%

.8%

 

Year that Best 30 Percent of Basin is Fully Identified

Coalbed Methane
Tight Sands
Gas Shales

2017

NA

NA

2017

2017

2017

2012

2012

2017

5

Increase in EUR per Well (per year)

Coalbed Methane &
 Gas Shales

NA

.1%

.3%

   

Tight Sands

NA

.3%

.4%

6

Increase in EUR per Well (per year)

Coalbed Methane &
 Gas Shales

.3%

.4%

.6%

   

Tight Sands

.4%

.5%

.6%

7

Decrease in Drilling and Stimulation Costs per Well (per year)

Coalbed Methane &
 Gas Shales

.3%

.5%

 

.8%

   

Tight Sands

.3%

.5%

.5%

8

Decrease in Water and Gas Treatment O&M
Costs per Well (per year)

All Types

.6%

1.0%

1.3%

9

Year Advanced Well Completion
Technologies Become Available

Coalbed Methane
Tight Sands

2018
2016

2011
2011

2008
2008

   

Gas Shales

NA

NA

2016

 

Increase in EUR per well (total increase)

Coalbed Methane

10%

20%

25%

   

Tight Sands

5%

10%

12.5%

   

Gas Shales

NA

NA

5%

10

Year Advanced Recovery Technologies Become Available

Coalbed Methane
Tight Sands

2018
NA

2010
NA

2010
2018

   

Gas Shales

NA

NA

NA

 

Increase in EUR per well (total increase)

Coalbed Methane

10%

25%

27.5%

   

Tight Sands

NA

NA

10%

   

Gas Shales

NA

NA

NA

 

Increase in Costs ($1998/Mcf) for Incremental CBM production

Coalbed Methane

1.54

1.03

.91

   

Tight Sands & Gas
Shales

NA

NA

NA

11

Proportion of Areas Currently
Restricted that Become Available for Development (per year)

Coalbed Methane
Tight Sands
Gas Shales        

.3%
NA
.5%

1%
1%
1%

1.3%
1.3%
1.3%

 

EUR = Expected Ultimate Recovery.
O&M = Operation & Maintenance.
CBM = Coalbed Methane.
Source:  Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting.

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