Table 53. Assumed Rates of Technological Progress for Unconventional Gas Recovery
|
Technology |
Item |
Type of Deposit |
Technology Case |
||
|
Slow |
Reference |
Rapid |
|||
|
1 |
Year Hypothetical Plays Become Available |
Coalbed
Methane & |
NA |
2016 |
2013 |
|
Gas Shales |
NA |
NA |
2018 |
||
|
Improvement in Play Probability for Hypothetical Plays (per year) |
All Types |
NA |
NA |
.5% |
|
|
2 |
Decrease in
Extended Portion of |
Coalbed
Methane & |
NA |
5.0% |
7.5% |
|
Tight Sands |
NA |
6.3% |
8.2% |
||
|
3 |
Expansion of Existing Reserves (per year -declining .1% per year) |
Coalbed
Methane & |
2.0% |
3.0% |
3.5% |
|
Tight Sands |
1.0% |
2.0% |
2.5% |
||
|
4 |
Increase in Percentage of Wells Drilled Successfully (per year) |
Coalbed
Methane & |
.1% |
.3% |
.6% |
|
Tight Sands |
.1% |
.3% |
.8% |
||
|
Year that Best 30 Percent of Basin is Fully Identified |
Coalbed
Methane |
2017 NA NA |
2017 2017 2017 |
2012 2012 2017 |
|
|
5 |
Increase in EUR per Well (per year) |
Coalbed
Methane & |
NA |
.1% |
.3% |
|
Tight Sands |
NA |
.3% |
.4% |
||
|
6 |
Increase in EUR per Well (per year) |
Coalbed
Methane & |
.3% |
.4% |
.6% |
|
Tight Sands |
.4% |
.5% |
.6% |
||
|
7 |
Decrease in Drilling and Stimulation Costs per Well (per year) |
Coalbed
Methane & |
.3% |
.5% |
.8% |
|
Tight Sands |
.3% |
.5% |
.5% |
||
|
8 |
Decrease in
Water and Gas Treatment O&M |
All Types |
.6% |
1.0% |
1.3% |
|
9 |
Year
Advanced Well Completion |
Coalbed
Methane |
2018 |
2011 |
2008 |
|
Gas Shales |
NA |
NA |
2016 |
||
|
Increase in EUR per well (total increase) |
Coalbed Methane |
10% |
20% |
25% |
|
|
Tight Sands |
5% |
10% |
12.5% |
||
|
Gas Shales |
NA |
NA |
5% |
||
|
10 |
Year Advanced Recovery Technologies Become Available |
Coalbed
Methane |
2018 |
2010 |
2010 |
|
Gas Shales |
NA |
NA |
NA |
||
|
Increase in EUR per well (total increase) |
Coalbed Methane |
10% |
25% |
27.5% |
|
|
Tight Sands |
NA |
NA |
10% |
||
|
Gas Shales |
NA |
NA |
NA |
||
|
Increase in Costs ($1998/Mcf) for Incremental CBM production |
Coalbed Methane |
1.54 |
1.03 |
.91 |
|
|
Tight Sands
& Gas |
NA |
NA |
NA |
||
|
11 |
Proportion
of Areas Currently |
Coalbed
Methane |
.3% |
1% |
1.3% |
|
EUR =
Expected Ultimate Recovery. |
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