Table 50.    Assumed Annual Rates of Technological Progress on Costs, Finding Rates, 
and Success Rates for Conventional Sources
(Percent)

Category

Natural Gas

Crude Oil

Slow
Technological
 Progress

Reference

Rapid
Technological
 Progress

Slow
Technological
 Progress

Reference

Rapid
Technological
Progress

Costs

           

  Drilling

           
  • Onshore

0.86

1.29

1.72

0.86

1.29

1.72

  • Offshore

1.35

2.02

2.69

1.35

2.02

2.69

  • Alaska

0.67

1.00

1.33

0.67

1.00

1.33

  Lease Equipment

           
  • Onshore

0.40

0.59

0.78

0.40

0.59

0.78

  • Offshore

0.94

1.40

1.86

0.94

1.40

1.86

  • Alaska

0.67

1.00

1.33

0.67

1.00

1.33

  Operating

           
  • Onshore

0.36

0.54

0.72

0.36

0.54

0.72

  • Offshore

0.40

0.60

0.80

0.40

0.60

0.80

  • Alaska

0.67

1.00

1.33

0.67

1.00

1.33

  Finding Rates

           

  New Field Wildcats

           

      Onshore

           
  • Shallow
           

                 Northeast

0.34

0.50

0.67

0.34

0.50

0.67

                 Gulf Coast

1.34

2.00

2.66

1.34

2.00

2.66

                 Mid Continent

2.01

3.00

3.99

1.34

2.00

2.66

                 Southwest

2.01

3.00

3.99

2.68

4.00

5.32

                 Rocky Mountain

1.34

2.00

2.66

1.34

2.00

2.66

                 West Coast

0.67

1.00

1.33

0.67

1.00

1.33

  • Deep
           

                 Northeast

                 Gulf Coast

0.67

1.00

1.33

                 MidContinent

0.67

1.00

1.33

                 Southwest

4.02

6.00

7.98

                 Rocky Mountain

0.67

1.00

1.33

                West Coast

       Offshore

4.02

6.00

7.98

1.34

2.00

2.66

  Other Exploratory

           

       Onshore

           
  • Shallow

0.00

0.00

0.00

1.93

2.88

3.83

  • Deep

3.16

4.72

6.28

       Offshore

2.77

4.14

5.51

2.77

4.14

5.51

  Developmental

           

       Onshore

           
  • Shallow

0.18

0.27

0.36

1.68

2.50

3.33

  • Deep

1.08

1.61

2.14

       Offshore

2.77

4.14

5.51

2.77

4.14

5.51

Success Rate

           
  • Exploratory

0.34

0.50

0.67

0.34

0.50

0.67

  • Developmental

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Source:  Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting.

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