Table 50. Assumed
Annual Rates of Technological Progress on Costs, Finding Rates,
and Success Rates for Conventional Sources
(Percent)
|
Category |
Natural Gas |
Crude Oil |
||||
|
Slow |
Reference |
Rapid |
Slow |
Reference |
Rapid |
|
|
Costs |
||||||
|
Drilling |
||||||
|
0.86 |
1.29 |
1.72 |
0.86 |
1.29 |
1.72 |
|
1.35 |
2.02 |
2.69 |
1.35 |
2.02 |
2.69 |
|
0.67 |
1.00 |
1.33 |
0.67 |
1.00 |
1.33 |
|
Lease Equipment |
||||||
|
0.40 |
0.59 |
0.78 |
0.40 |
0.59 |
0.78 |
|
0.94 |
1.40 |
1.86 |
0.94 |
1.40 |
1.86 |
|
0.67 |
1.00 |
1.33 |
0.67 |
1.00 |
1.33 |
|
Operating |
||||||
|
0.36 |
0.54 |
0.72 |
0.36 |
0.54 |
0.72 |
|
0.40 |
0.60 |
0.80 |
0.40 |
0.60 |
0.80 |
|
0.67 |
1.00 |
1.33 |
0.67 |
1.00 |
1.33 |
|
Finding Rates |
||||||
|
New Field Wildcats |
||||||
|
Onshore |
||||||
|
||||||
|
Northeast |
0.34 |
0.50 |
0.67 |
0.34 |
0.50 |
0.67 |
|
Gulf Coast |
1.34 |
2.00 |
2.66 |
1.34 |
2.00 |
2.66 |
|
Mid Continent |
2.01 |
3.00 |
3.99 |
1.34 |
2.00 |
2.66 |
|
Southwest |
2.01 |
3.00 |
3.99 |
2.68 |
4.00 |
5.32 |
|
Rocky Mountain |
1.34 |
2.00 |
2.66 |
1.34 |
2.00 |
2.66 |
|
West Coast |
0.67 |
1.00 |
1.33 |
0.67 |
1.00 |
1.33 |
|
||||||
|
Northeast |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
|
Gulf Coast |
0.67 |
1.00 |
1.33 |
— |
— |
— |
|
MidContinent |
0.67 |
1.00 |
1.33 |
— |
— |
— |
|
Southwest |
4.02 |
6.00 |
7.98 |
— |
— |
— |
|
Rocky Mountain |
0.67 |
1.00 |
1.33 |
— |
— |
— |
|
West Coast |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
|
Offshore |
4.02 |
6.00 |
7.98 |
1.34 |
2.00 |
2.66 |
|
Other Exploratory |
||||||
|
Onshore |
||||||
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
1.93 |
2.88 |
3.83 |
|
3.16 |
4.72 |
6.28 |
— |
— |
— |
|
Offshore |
2.77 |
4.14 |
5.51 |
2.77 |
4.14 |
5.51 |
|
Developmental |
||||||
|
Onshore |
||||||
|
0.18 |
0.27 |
0.36 |
1.68 |
2.50 |
3.33 |
|
1.08 |
1.61 |
2.14 |
— |
— |
— |
|
Offshore |
2.77 |
4.14 |
5.51 |
2.77 |
4.14 |
5.51 |
|
Success Rate |
||||||
|
0.34 |
0.50 |
0.67 |
0.34 |
0.50 |
0.67 |
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| Source: Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. | ||||||